The Automotive Technology Roadmap 2009
SupplierBusiness, January 2009, Pages: 324
Published January 2009, the Automotive Technology Roadmap is a unique collaboration
The report sets out the key drivers of change within the auto industry and analyses the current framework of competition for customers in terms of parameters including product performance, safety, OEM corporate structure, cost base and ownership, and supply chain issues and economies of scale.
The report goes on to examine each aspect of the vehicle in turn, including body structure, electrical and electronic control systems, passive and active safety systems, climate control, brakes, steering, suspension, wheels, chassis, driveline and transmission systems, advanced engine technologies, alternative fuels, hybrid systems, energy management and fuel cell vehicle systems. In each case, a comprehensive analysis of current state-of-the-art products is provided, together with the vision of the authors for the deployment of new technologies – including major potential disruptors – over a time horizon of approximately twenty years.
For each section, specialists have contributed their own insights and reviewed and validated the information gathered from external sources. As such, while there is naturally much detailed level information which must remain confidential, the report provides a rigorous and well-researched vision of the future development of automotive technology which will be of significant value
Ian Kershaw, managing director of Ricardo Strategic Consulting in Northern Europe, said: 'We are pleased to have partnered in the preparation of the Automotive Technology Roadmap report. Running to well in excess of three hundred pages, this report provides perhaps the most thoroughgoing examination currently available in published form of the likely technological development of the automobile over the next twenty years. Within the limits of what Ricardo can publicly disclose while protecting our clients' confidentiality, the comprehensive nature of the analysis provided is likely to be extremely useful those engaged at all levels within the global automotive industry, including investors.
INTRODUCTION
Ricardo Perspective
Executive summary
Key drivers to technology development
Legislation and regulation
Greenhouse gas/ CO2emissions
Passenger and pedestrian safety
Exhaust emissions
Recycling
Competing for customers
Improving fuel economy
Performance and vehicle dynamics
Safety and security
Vehicle design and style
Cost control and increasing shareholder wealth
Vehicle design and testing
Economies of scale and platforms
OEMs and the tier structure
Modules and sub-assemblies
Technology trends affecting the industry
Shortening design and replacement cycles
Systems integration
The packaging dilemma
Electrics, electronics and mechatronics
Availability of diagnostic information
BODY AND SYSTEMS
The body structure
Summary and timeline
Aerodynamics
Body concepts
Modules
Corner modules
Materials
Lightweight construction
Aluminium, magnesium and hybrid construction
Plastics
Hybrid materials technology
SMC
Nanocomposites
Recycling
Joining technology
Adhesives
Welding
Self-piercing rivets
Paints and coatings
Rust-proofing
Paint layers
Types of paint
ADVANCED LIGHTING TECHNOLOGY
Summary timeline
Front lights
Intelligent lighting systems
Rear lights
Interior lighting
Instrument panel and switch lighting
Ambient lighting
Colour
Display technology
Head-up display
Intelligent interior lighting
Vehicle fitment to 2018 and future trends
Design presentation
Validating the headlamp and lighting design
Market Penetration
SAFETY
Summary timeline
Passive Safety systems
Airbags
Seat belts
Rear seat belts
Active head restraints
Occupant detection systems
Structural developments
Compatibility
Seat safety design
Pedestrian protection
Active safety systems
Vehicle control and rollover
Electronic Stability Control (ESC)
ASR (Anti-Schlupf-Regelung - Traction Control)
Electronic Braking System (EBS) or Electronic Brake Distribution (EBD)
Active Suspension
Active All Wheel Drive (AWD)
Collision Mitigation Systems (CMS)
Collision Mitigation and Avoidance Systems (CMAS)
Lane Departure Warning (LDW) systems
Lane Keeping Assistance
Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC)
Accelerator Force Feedback Pedal (AFFP)
Torque vectoring
Sensor technology
The sensitive car
Human-machine interface (HMI)
Drowsiness Detection Systems
Alcohol interlock
Reversing Assist/Parking Assist
Blind spot monitor
Vision Enhancement
Passive night vision systems
Active night vision systems
Advanced vision systems
Voice activation
Vehicle fitment to 2018 and future trends
Consumer demand
OEM demand
Concerns over litigation
Concerns over added value
Market Penetration
INTERIOR SYSTEMS
Climate control systems (HVAC)
R744 CO2 refrigerant gas 108
Modules and packaging
Infotainment – the Internet in the car
Platforms and gateways
AUTOSAR
Telematics
Online services
Bandwidths
Aerials
Vehicle fitment to 2018 and future trends
ELECTRONICS
Microprocessors
Demands of the automotive industry
Temperature requirements
Vibration and shock
Failure rates
Challenges for the industry
Bandwidth
Standardisation
Changes in the automotive industry
Centralised architecture or decentralised architecture?
Automotive bus systems
Decentralisation
Under-the-hood and body control buses
Controller Area Network (CAN)
Local Interconnect Network
Entertainment and driver information systems
Media Oriented System Transport (MOST)
Intelligent Transport System Data Bus (IDB)
Digital Data Bus (D2B)
Bluetooth
ZigBee
Car2Car
Dedicated Short Range Communications (DSRC)
Advanced safety systems
ByteFlight
FlexRay
Time-Triggered Protocol (TTP)
Time-Triggered CAN (TTCAN)
Other bus systems
Bus coexistence
Technology development
Fibre optics
Flat cables
Flexible printed circuits
Programmable logic devices
Software
AUTOSAR
Software potential
Standards bodies
Distributed functions
Security
Vehicle fitment to 2018 and future trends
Appendix 1: OSI Protocol Description
Appendix 2: Encoding Dictionary
CHASSIS SYSTEMS
Summary timeline
Steering
Electrically Power Assisted Steering (EPAS)
Surface acoustic wave
Electro-Hydraulic Power Steering (EHPS)
Electric Power Steering (EPS)
Steer-by-wire
Active Front Steering (AFS)
Four-wheel steering
Automated parking
Suspension
Active body control
Anti-roll bars
Adaptive damping system
Air suspension
Active suspension
Electronic Damper Control (EDC)
Active Suspension Geometry (ASG)
Semi-active suspension
Active electronic suspension system
Vehicle fitment to 2018 and future trends
Brakes
Anti-Lock Braking System (ABS)
Electronic Braking System (EBS) or Electronic Brake Distribution (EBD)
Brake Assist (BA)
Autonomous emergency braking
Ceramic composite brakes
Brake-by-wire
Electro-hydraulic brake-by-wire
Electro-mechanical brake-by-wire
Regenerative braking systems and brake blending
Vehicle stability systems
Wheels and tires
Tire Pressure Monitoring System (TPMS)
Vehicle fitment to 2018 and future trends
Four-wheel drive (4WD)
Emissions and Fuel Economy
Active Torque Dynamics (ATD)
Safety and AWD
Technologies and Challenges
Electric AWD
Integration of Control Systems
Active All Wheel Drive (AWD)
Torque vectoring
The future for chassis design
Vehicle fitment to 2018 and future trends
POWERTRAIN
Industry Drivers
Summary and outlook
gasoline Engine Technology
Fuel efficiency
Engine technology development
Engine downsizing
The 2/4SIGHT engine
Torque enhancement system (VTES)
Variable compression rations
Valve technology
Variable valve technology
Electro-mechanical valve control
Cylinder shutoff – Variable Displacement Engine (VDE) or Displacement on Demand
Combustion systems
Gasoline Direct Injection
Spray guided injection
Alternative engine technologies
The MUSIC engine
The Duke Engine
The Pivotal Engine
Homogeneous charge compression ignition (HCCI)
The Daimler DiesOtto concept
Diesel Engine Technology
Weight reduction and new materials
Commonrail
Bosch's third generation commonrail system
Commonrail for commercial vehicles
Piezo technology
Pistons
Compacted Graphite Iron (CGI)
Diesels in the US
The economic benefits of engine families
Summary and outlook
Turbocharging
Turbocharger Sectors
Superchargers
Turbocharging Versus Supercharging
Wastegated turbochargers
Turbocompounding
Charged Air Coolers (CACs)
Compressors
Compressor mapping
Twin-Scroll Turbochargers
Bearing Systems
Micro turbocharging
Variable geometry
Multiple Turbochargers
Electronic controls and new materials
Titanium Compressor Impellers
Assisted turbocharging
Exhaust aftertreatment
Gasoline (Petrol) Engine Emissions
Diesel Engine Emissions
Exhaust Gas Recirculation (EGR)
Selective Catalytic Reduction (SCR)
System design
Alternative fuels
Biofuels
Ethanol
Biodiesel
Biofuels' compatibility with today's engines
Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) and Compressed Natural Gas (CNG)
Hydrogen enriched compressed natural gas (HCNG)
The hydrogen internal combustion engine
Hybrids
Powertrain
Batteries and power storage
OEM overview
Summary
Vehicle fitment to 2018 and future trends
Fuel cell vehicles
The different methods
Liquefied hydrogen
Compressed hydrogen
Methanol
Gasoline reformation
Metal hydrides
Nanotubes
Sodium borohydride
Cost factors
Fuel cell advantages
Future trends
ELECTRIC VEHICLE TECHNOLOGY
EV Componentry
Electrical motors
AC Motors
DC Motors
Synchronous motors
Switch reluctance machines
Battery Technology
Lead acid
Nickel-metal hydride (NiMH)
Sodium nickel chloride (NaNiCl)
Lithium-ion
Li-ion technology improvements
Supercapacitors and ultracapacitors
Flywheel Energy Storage
Energy Infrastructure
TRANSMISSIONS
Summary timeline
Consumer preferences - launch, gearshift quality and vehicle performance
Transmission costs, investment and installed capacity
Packaging, safety and weight
Transmissions technology
Manual Transmissions (MTs)
Automated manual transmissions (AMTs)
Dual clutch automated manual transmissions (DCT)
Market considerations
Automatic transmissions
6-speed automatic transmissions
7-speed transmissions
8-speed transmissions
Continuously variable transmissions (CVT)
Market considerations
Other transmission technologies
The infinitely variable transmission (IVT) or toroidal transmission
Antonov Automatic Driver (AAD)
Zeroshift
Hybrid transmissions
One-Mode and Two-Mode Hybrids
Clutch development
Clutch-by-wire
Summary
Vehicle fitment to 2018 and future trends
TABLE OF FIGURES
1: Change in CO2 emissions (all sources) for OECD countries, 2002 relative to 1990
2: Passenger car fuel economy/ CO
2 reduction progress ACEA/ JAMA/ KAMA 14
3: The relationship between fuel consumption and CO2 targets
4: Top Runner fuel economy standards (Km/l) 15
5: Relative cost versus fuel saving for different technology bases
6: The effect of safety technology measures in Germany to 2005
7: Combustion components in exhaust gases
8: The link between engine development and emissions regulation
9: European and US reductions in emissions
10: Progressive NOx and HC emissions limits in Europe, Japan and the US
11: Varying consumer perceptions by car type
12: ACEA (European) car parc characteristics to 2002
13: The compromise between body acceleration and wheel loading
14: Engineering design parameters for various car segments
15: VW's PQ35 platform as used in the Golf
16: The growth of integrated functions
17: The relationship between functions and control units to 2014
18: Increasing electrical power requirements 1980-2005
19: HGV brake diagnostics
20: The automotive profit pool
21: Timeline for the body structure and related technology elements.
22: A vehicle at design stage undergoing wind tunnel testing.
23: Delphi's quiet corner module.
24: Faurecia's Audi A6 front-end module.
25: Laser welded door containing three different steels.
26: Friction stir welding.
27: Laser assisted friction stir welding.
28: Self-piercing rivet process.
29: Electrostatically applied 'nano-particle' clearcoat
30: Automotive lighting timeline.
31: Mercedes-Benz/Hella - active light system (1)
32: Mercedes-Benz/Hella - active light system (2)
33: Hella's swivelling light module.
34: Hella's LED headlamp assembly.
35: LED light cluster as used in the Lexus LS600h
36: Visteon's LED rear light cluster.
37: Hella's variable intensity LED rear light cluster.
38: Light piping through plastic moulded pipes.
39: Visteon's thin-film technology in Jaguar's XK instrument cluster.
40: GM's head-up display.
41: Vehicle safety systems timeline.
42: Autoliv's adaptive front airbags.
43: Autoliv's inflatable curtain.
44: Autoliv's inflatable tube airbag.
45: Delphi's passive occupant detection system.
46: Autoliv's pedestrian protection system.
47: Increasing vehicle dynamics system integration.
48: Hella's advanced lane recognition system.
49: Continental's AFFP gives warning of hazardous situations by vibrating and exerting counter pressure in the pedal
50: Continental's rapid reaction accelerator pedal
51: External sensor ranges.
52: Hella's active night vision system.
53: Estimated number of microprocessors in a vehicle
54: Requirements on electronic devices
55: Typical temperatures in which automotive electronic components must function
56: Temperature and shock operating conditions for automotive electronic components
57: Failure rate requirements of automotive electronic components
58: The development of processor clock frequencies
59: Domain related interconnected architecture
60: Use of CAN and LIN buses in a modern car
61: Trends in in-vehicle network architecture, 1995 – 2010
62: Telematics roadmap
63: X-by-wire roadmap
64: Chassis technology timeline.
65: Components of an active system
66: Active steering system components
67: Variable ratio steering.
68: Renault's active four wheel steer systems as fitted to the Laguna GT
69: Continental's air suspension system
70: Bose's fully electromechanical front suspension model
71: Continental's electro-hydraulic combi braking system layout
72: Continental's electronic wedge brake on test
73: Continental's regenerative braking system layout
74: TRW's second generation slip control boost brake technology.
75: Bosch's yaw torque compensation system.
76: Attributes of lifestyle and AWD wagons and performance AWD vehicles
77: Attributes of SUVs and crossover vehicles
78: Urban road transport NOx emissions 1990 - 2015.
79: Permitted emissions for cars by class.
80: Specific emissions targets
81: Comparison of EU light vehicles against new proposed EU CO2 limits 188
82: Current car manufacturers' status against EU target
83: Technology roadmaps for gasoline engines focused on CO2 reduction 192
84: Cost/ benefit of future powertrain choices.
85: 2/4SIGHT prototype engine
86: 2/4SIGHT engine concept
87: VCR engine efficiency at various power levels
88: Nissan's VVEL system
89: A cam-less engine using electro-mechanical valve control on test at Lotus.
90: Valeo's e-valve system
91: A comparison of wall guided and spray guided direct injection
92: Cylinder head design layout for a four cylinder engine
93: A 3 litre equivalent Duke Engine
94: Water-cooled pivotal piston engine
95: The effect of diesel engine downsizing on fuel consumption.
96: Continental's piezo injector.
97: Delphi's HP HD Diesel Common rail System
98: A comparison of direct acting injectors versus servo-hydraulic injector spray patterns
99: US diesel and gasoline prices in comparison with the WTI crude index
100: Supercharged Audi 3.0L V6 Engine
101: Scania 12 litre Euro IV engine with EGR and turbocompounding
102: Compressor map of a turbocharger for passenger car applications
103: Holset VGT™ Turbocharging Technology
104: Tri-turbo concept from Mercedes Benz
105: BMW bi-turbo
106: Turbocharging technologies for high pressure charging
107: A comparison between 1975 and 2009 passenger car exhaust system
109: Heated TWC
110: NOx /particulates trade-off in cooled and non-cooled EGR systems
111: A schematic illustrating SCR
112: Diesel Particulate Filter
113: Diesel exhaust aftertreatment system schematic
114: World biofuel targets.
115: First and second generation biofuels.
116: Pros and cons of first and second generation biofuels.
117: Well-to-wheel analysis for biofuels.
118: OEM manufactured CNG/ LPG engine options are limited.
119: CNG filling stations in Europe.
120: Bi-fuel system components.
121: A SunLine Tranist Agency "SunBus" with Cummins Westport 5.9-litre B Gas Plus engine, refuelling with HCNG.
122: Toyota's Prius.
123: Operation of the Toyota Prius under different driving circumstances.
124: Comparison of fuel cell technologies.
125: Mercedes-Benz B Class Fuel Cell research vehicle.
126: Ballard's fuel cell stack.
127: Ford fuel cell components.
128: Ford's Focus fuel cell vehicle.
129: Current projects and prototypes
130: Typical EV component layouts
131: A system layout with isolated high and low voltage circuits
132: A system layout with isolated high and low voltage circuits
133: EV motors
134: Switch reluctance machines
135: Energy storage overview.
136: Battery technology evolution
137: A typical Zebra battery module
138: Lithium- ion battery pack
139: Energy density versus Output density in battery systems
140: A Ragone plot showing energy density vs power density for various energy-storage devices
141: NASA's G2 Flywheel
142: Transmission trends timeline.
143: Advanced transmission potential contribution to overall CO2 reduction 298
144: Segment average kerb weight 1990 – 2006.
145: Transmission types: strengths and weaknesses.
146: Increasing penetration of 6 speed MTs – Europe.
147: Manual transmission volumes – Europe.
148: VW 7 speed dual clutch DCT -DQ200.
149: Schematic of a DCT.
150: LuK's dual dry clutch as used in the DQ200 VW 7-speed DCT.
151: Getrag's DCT range to be launched 2007 – 2009.
152: ZF's 7-speed high torque DCT.
153: A Ravigneaux gear set.
154: A simple epicyclic planetary gear set.
155: ZF's 6HP 6-speed AT (front) compared with a previous 5-speed AT.
156: Mercedes-Benz 7G-Tronic automatic transmission.
157: ZF's 8HP 8-speed AT.
158: Relative fuel savings for ATs.
159: AT ratio trend.
160: Audi's Multitronic CVT.
161: Audi's second generation Multitronic CVT.
162: Increasing torque capacity of the Audi Multitronic CVT.
163: Jatco's current CVT fitment range.
164: CVT production volumes.
165: Torotrak's infinitely variable transmission.
166: A schematic of a toroidal transmission.
168: Zeroshift drive rings.
169: One-Mode Hybrid Input-Split EVT.
170: Two-Mode Hybrid Input-Split EVT.
171: One-Mode Hybrid Input-Split EVT.
172: Two-Mode Hybrid with Input-Split and Compound-Split EVT Modes.
173: Two mode hybrid transmission.
- Audi
- Autoliv
- Ballard
- BMW
- Bosch
- Bose
- Continental
- Delphi
- Ford
- Getrag
- GM
- Hella
- Holset VGT
- Jaguar
- Jatco
- Lotus
- LuK
- Mercedes-Benz
- NASA
- Nissan
- Ragone
- Ravigneaux
- Renault
- Scania
- SunLine
- Toyota
- TRW
- Valeo
- Visteon
- ZF
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