PV Innovation in North America

The $50 billion global PV industry is fast approaching a critical juncture in its history. Buoyed by climate change, national security concerns and slowing productivity in traditional, fossil fuel-based power generation, PV has emerged over the last 20 years as an economically and environmentally sustainable source of energy. However, the global recession, tightening credit markets and slow integration into the global power sector presage at least two years of difficulty for the majority of players in the PV industry. Despite these pressures, one constant force remains a primary driver of growth in this important and dynamic market — technological innovation.

Among the things that are critical for making sound investments and planning decisions in this difficult financial environment include: understanding how incumbent PV technologies will affect cost curves, learning what hot new technologies are emerging to disrupt established players, and considering how end users are incorporating new and up-and-coming PV technologies into their power-generation portfolios and daily lives. Greentech Media and the Prometheus Institute for Sustainable Development's latest industry-leading report, PV Innovation in North America, analyzes these critical technology issues within the context of the dynamic North American PV market. Most importantly, this report highlights the ways in which North American-based technological innovation will contribute to make this the world's leading PV market.

This report's key findings are:

- Small, entrepreneur-driven PV companies are the dominant force in the North American PV market. There are more PV technology developers in North America than in Europe and Asia combined, and these companies are rapidly developing the newest generation of innovative PV technologies.

- North America's two dominant firms, First Solar and SunPower, began as small, entrepreneur-driven companies whose technologies are unparalleled worldwide in terms of cost and performance. These two companies are the yardstick by which success among North American PV companies is measured.

- Unlike the majority of European and Japanese PV companies, North American PV companies emerged largely independent of government support. As a political climate favorable toward renewable energy takes hold in the United States, government support combined with traditional sources of private capital will engender industry growth unseen in other leading global PV markets.

- Tightening credit markets and higher costs of capital will slow demand for PV installations in established markets. Recessions, however, historically are potent times for research, development and innovation, which require little in the way of project finance. North America's small, entrepreneur-driven PV companies stand to emerge well-positioned globally following the resetting of credit markets in 18 to 24 months.

- The North American PV industry as a whole represents a strongly diversified technology portfolio, with firms developing x-Si, thin-film, concentrating photovoltaic (CPV) and third-generation organic and nano-scale PV technologies. No other global market has as much technological diversity and, as such, North American firms will likely emerge as the commercial leaders in each of these important technology verticals.

- Though the expected shakeout in the PV industry, combined with the global recession, will result in the failure of many PV companies, those that exhibit significant technological differentiation in terms of cost, performance or application are likely to succeed. The majority of technologically differentiated firms are located in North America. SHOW LESS READ MORE >

1 Executive Summary
1.1 Overview of the Global PV Market: Drivers of Growth
1.2 Core PV Technologies
1.3 Innovation in PV Technologies
1.4 Explanation of Report Structure and Format

2 PV Technologies
2.1 History of PV Industry
2.2 Overview of PV Value Chain
2.3 Core PV Technologies
2.4 First-Generation Technologies
2.4.1 Crystalline Silicon PV (c-Si & c-Si+)
2.5 Second-Generation Technologies: Thin Film
2.5.1 Amorphous Silicon/Thin-Si PV (a-Si, Thin-Si, µ-Si)
2.5.2 Cadmium PV (CdTe)
2.5.3 Copper Indium Gallium Di-Selenide PV (CIS/CIGS)
2.6 Third-Generation Technologies
2.6.1 Dye-Sensitized Solar Cells (DSSC)
2.6.2 Nano-Modifi ed Materials
2.6.3 Nano-Antennae
2.6.4 Quantum Dot
2.6.5 Spheral Solar
2.7 Concentrating PV and Multi-Junction PV (MJC)

3 International PV Market
3.1 Overview of International PV Market
3.1.1 International PV Market Characterized by Dramatic Past and Future Growth
3.1.2 Rise of New Technologies Will Drive Down Costs While Increasing Market Growth
3.1.3 Portfolio of New Innovations Will Transform the Market
3.2 International Mono-Crystalline and Poly-Crystalline Silicon PV Market
3.3 International Thin-Si PV Market
3.4 International CdTe PV Market
3.5 International CIGS PV Market
3.6 International Third-Generation PV Market
3.7 International Concentrating PV Market
3.8 International Multi-Junction PV Market
3.9 Summary of International PV Market

4 North American PV Market
4.1 North America PV Market Overview: Laggards and Leaders
4.1.1 Innovative North American Startups Leading the International Scene
4.1.2 North American Firms Innovating Across Technical Generations and PV Types
4.1.3 North American Manufacturing Capacity Has Been Modest But Poised for Explosive Growth
4.2 North American Mono and Poly-Crystalline PV Manufacturers
4.2.1 Many North American Silicon PV Manufacturers Have Moved Into Niches
4.2.2 Some ‘North American' Silicon PV Manufacturers Draw on Chinese or Indian Operations
4.2.3 North America Silicon PV Has Strong Innovation Coming From Startups
4.3 North American Amorphous Si/Thin-Si PV Manufacturers
4.3.1 North American a-Si/Thin-Si Has a Few Strong, Established Players
4.3.2 North American a-Si/Thin-Si PV Has Had Relatively Little Entry by Large Manufacturers
4.3.3 North American Startups Innovating Dramatically in a-Si/Thin-Si PV
4.4 North American CdTe PV Manufacturers
4.4.1 North American CdTe PV Dominated by Startups
4.5 North American CIGS PV Manufacturers
4.5.1 North America Loaded With High-Potential CIGS PV Startups
4.6 North American Third-Generation PV Manufacturers
4.6.1 North American Third-Generation Diversifi ers Pursuing Niche Technologies
4.6.2 North American Third-Generation PV Startups Leading Innovation
4.7 North American Concentrating PV Manufacturers
4.7.1 Established North American Concentrating PV Manufacturers Making Headway
4.7.2 Plethora of North American Concentrating PV Startups Pushing Multiple Approaches
4.8 North American Multi-Junction PV Manufacturers (MJC)
4.8.1 Large North American Firms Dominate International MJC PV Market
4.8.2 The Only Challenge to North American MJC PV Dominance Coming From North American Startups

5 Comprehensive Review of Startup Innovation in North America
5.1.1 North America Driving Global Leadership in PV Innovation by Startups
5.1.2 North American Startups Pursuing Full Spectrum of PV Technologies
5.1.3 North American Startups Largely Private Institutions and Many Are in Stealth Mode
5.1.4 North American Startups Funded Primarily by Private Investors
5.1.5 Conclusion: North American Startups Offer a Robust Portfolio of High-Growth Opportunity
5.2 North American Mono-Crystalline and Poly-Crystalline PV Startups
5.2.1 Silicon PV Innovations Decreasing the Use of Raw Materials
5.2.2 Silicon PV Innovations Increasing Cell Effi ciency
5.2.3 Silicon PV Innovations in Supply Chain Costs
5.3 North American Thin-Si Startups
5.3.1 Thin-Si Innovation in Cell Architectures
5.3.2 Thin-Si Innovation in Manufacturing
5.3.3 Thin-Si Innovation in Business Models
5.4 North American CdTe Thin-Film Startups
5.4.1 CdTe Startups' Deep Experience With Technology and Manufacturing
5.4.2 CdTe Startups Focused on Manufacturing Innovation and Process
5.4.3 CdTe Startups' Exposure to Environmental and Competitive Threats
5.5 North American CIGS Thin-Film Startups
5.5.1 CIGS Startups' Promise of Radical Manufacturing Throughput
5.5.2 CIGS Startups Have Delayed Reaching Commercialization
5.5.3 CIGS Startups Early Struggle to Maintain Effi ciencies
5.5.4 CIGS Startups Poised for Breakaway Growth
5.6 North American Third-Generation Startups
5.6.1 Third-Generation Technical Categories
5.6.2 Third-Generation Startups Pushing Cell Effi ciencies Higher
5.6.3 Third-Generation Startups Incorporate Manufacturing Innovations
5.6.4 Third-Generation Startups Offer Uncertain Promise
5.7 North American Concentrating PV Startups
5.7.1 Concentrating PV Startups Innovating for both Low- and High-Concentration Modules
5.7.2 Many Concentrating PV Startups Moving Toward Flat-Panel Format
5.7.3 High-Concentration PV Startups Innovating in Design and Business Models
5.8 North American Multi-Junction Cell (MJC) Startups
5.8.1 MJC Startups Lowering Multi-Junction Cell Cost
5.8.2 MJC Startups Using Innovative Materials to Raise Effi ciencies
5.9 North American Entrants in 2008
5.10 North American R&D-Stage Firms
5.11 North American Startups in Other Areas of the Value Chain

6 Conclusions and Recommendations
6.1 Summary of State of PV Innovation
6.2 Drivers and Barriers to Commercialization
6.3 Threats and Opportunities in the Market
6.4 Investment Opportunities
6.4.1 Late-Stage, Large Cash Investments
6.4.2 Early-Stage, High-Risk/Reward Investments
6.4.3 Licensing Technology From R&D Stage Companies
6.4.4 Purchase and Refocus a Science-Oriented Company
6.4.5 Invest in Other Areas of the Value Chain
6.5 Conclusion

7 Profiles of PV Startups, Alphabetically
1366 Technologies
Advent Solar
Ascendant Energy
Ascent Solar
AVA Solar
Bandgap Engineering
Bloo Solar/Q1 Nanosystems
Blue Square Energy
CaliSolar
CIS Solar
Cool Earth Solar
Crown Renewable Energy
Cyrium Technologies
Day4Energy
DayStar Technologies
Energy Innovations
Enfocus Engineering
EPOD Solar
Evergreen Solar
First Solar
Gamma Solar
Global Solar
Green Brilliance
GreenField Solar/Photovolt
Greenvolts
Heliovolt
Innovalight
JX Crystals
Konarka
Lambda Energia S.A.
Miasolé
MicroLink Devices
Morgan Solar
Nanosolar
Nanosys
NewCyte
Octillion
OneSun
Opel International
Optisolar/Gen 3 Solar
Pacifi c Solartech
Photovoltaic Solar Cells Inc.
Plextronics
PrimeStar Solar
Prism Solar Technologies
Pyron Solar
SBM Solar
Sencera
Sierra Solar Power
Signet Solar
Silicon Valley Solar/NuEdison
Solar Fields
Solar Power Industries
Solaria
Solarmer
Solasta/The Eagle Axis
SolBeam
Solexant
SolFocus
Soliant Energy
SoloPower
Soltaix/Solexel
Solyndra
Stellaris
Stion/Nstructures
Sun Phocus
Suniva
SVV Technology Innovations
Vanguard Solar
Wakonda Technologies
XsunX
Xunlight/MWOE Solar

Appendix: Extended Comparison of North American Startups

References

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 2-1: PV Value Chain

Figure 3-2: Top international c-Si, c-Si+ PV manufacturers
Figure 3-3: Up-and-Coming International c-Si, c-Si+ PV Manufacturers
Figure 3-4: Top international thin-Si PV manufacturers
Figure 3-5: Top international CdTe PV manufacturers
Figure 3-6: Top International CIGS PV Manufacturers
Figure 3-7: Top International Third Generation PV Manufacturers
Figure 3-8: Top International Concentrating PV Manufacturers
Figure 3-9: Top International Multi-Junction PV Manufacturers

Figure 4-1: Geographical Distribution of North American PV Manufacturers
Figure 4-2: Types of North American Firms
Figure 4-3: Entry Date by Firm Type
Figure 4-4: Entry by PV Technical Generation
Figure 4-5: Proportion of North American Firms by PV Category
Figure 4-6: Count of North American Firms by PV Category
Figure 4-7: 2007 North American MW Production Capacity by PV Type
Figure 4-8: North American Self-Stated Commercialization Dates by PV Generation
Figure 4-9: North American c-Si and c-Si+ PV Manufacturers
Figure 4-10: North American a-Si and Thin-Si PV Manufacturers
Figure 4-11: North American CdTe PV Manufacturers
Figure 4-12: North American CIGS PV Manufacturers
Figure 4-13: North American Third-Generation PV Manufacturers
Figure 4-14: North American Concentrating PV Manufacturers
Figure 4-15: North American MJC PV Manufacturers

Figure 5-1: North American Startups by PV Category
Figure 5-2: North American Startups by Status
Figure 5-3: Funding Sources for North American PV Startups
Figure 5-4: Sources of Funding for North American Startups
Figure 5-5: Silicon PV Startups in North America
Figure 5-6: Thin-Si Startups
Figure 5-7: CdTe Startups
Figure 5-8: CIGS Startups
Figure 5-9: Third-Generation Startups
Figure 5-10: Concentrating PV Startups
Figure 5-11: Projected Capacities by Japanese manufacturers
Figure 5-12: New Entrants in 2008
Figure 5-13: Potential Entrants Awaiting Funding
Figure 5-14: R&D Focused PV Firms
Figure 5-15: Startups in Other Areas of the PV Value Chain

Figure 6-1: Model of Industry Evolution
Figure 6-2: Model of PV Industry Evolution
Figure 6-3: Model of Entry for Innovators in Established Industries