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1Q09 India Mobile Operator Forecast, 2008 – 2013: Total Subscribers in India to Reach 840.8 Million in 2013 with Reliance Communications Taking Market Share Away From BSNL

  • ID: 686808
  • Report
  • January 2009
  • Region: India
  • 142 Pages
  • IE Market Research
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Our Mobile Operator Forecast on India provides over 65 operational and financial metrics for India’s wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide six-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 4Q2013. Operators covered for India include: Reliance Communications (RCom), Vodafone-Essar, Bharti-Airtel, BSNL, and Idea. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

Our Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers up to 65 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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Charts 1-68 Results & Forecasts for: CY 2001-CY 2013
Chart 1: PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS
Chart 2: SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)
Chart 3: SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 4: SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 5: NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 6: NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
Chart 7: MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR *
Chart 8: POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 9: POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 10: PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 11: PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR
Chart 12: POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 13: PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 14: POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 15: POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 16: PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 17: PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
Chart 18: GROSS ADDITIONS BY OPERATOR *
Chart 19: GROSS ADDITIONS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) *
Chart 20: MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR
Chart 21: MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
Chart 22: DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR
Chart 23: MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR
Chart 24: DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 25: MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR
Chart 26: VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 27: VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR
Chart 28: VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 29: MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH)
Chart 30: MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
Chart 31: AGGREGATE MOU BY OPERATOR
Chart 32: AGGREGATE MOU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
Chart 33: SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 34: HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE
Chart 35: SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 36: SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 37: SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 38: SHARE OF GROSS ADDS BY OPERATOR *
Chart 39: SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR *
Chart 40: HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE *
Chart 41: YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR *
Chart 42: REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) *
Chart 43: SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) *
Chart 44: EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) *
Chart 45: CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) *
Chart 46: SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) *
Chart 47: EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) *
Chart 48: EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR *
Chart 49: EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR *
Chart 50: EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR *
Chart 51: CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR *
Chart 52: CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR *
Chart 53: (EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR *
Chart 54: EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR *
Chart 55: REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD) *
Chart 56: ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 57: DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 58: VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 59: SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD) *
Chart 60: EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD) *
Chart 61: CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD) *
Chart 62: REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (EUR) *
Chart 63: ARPU BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 64: DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 65: VOICE REVENUE/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (EUR) *
Chart 66: SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (EUR) *
Chart 67: EBITDA BY OPERATOR (EUR) *
Chart 68: CAPEX BY OPERATOR (EUR) *

Charts 69-136 Quarterly Results for: Mar 2003 - Dec 2013
Chart 69: PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS
Chart 70: SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)
Chart 71: SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 72: SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 73: NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 74: NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
Chart 75: MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR *
Chart 76: POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 77: POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 78: PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 79: PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR
Chart 80: POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 81: PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 82: POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 83: POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 84: PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 85: PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
Chart 86: GROSS ADDITIONS BY OPERATOR *
Chart 87: GROSS ADDITIONS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) *
Chart 88: MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR
Chart 89: MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
Chart 90: DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR
Chart 91: MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR
Chart 92: DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 93: MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR
Chart 94: VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 95: VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR
Chart 96: VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 97: MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH)
Chart 98: MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
Chart 99: AGGREGATE MOU BY OPERATOR
Chart 100: AGGREGATE MOU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
Chart 101: SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 102: HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE
Chart 103: SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 104: SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 105: SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 106: SHARE OF GROSS ADDS BY OPERATOR *
Chart 107: SHARE SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR *
Chart 108: HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE *
Chart 109: YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR *
Chart 110: REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) *
Chart 111: SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) *
Chart 112: EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) *
Chart 113: CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) *
Chart 114: SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) *
Chart 115: EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) *
Chart 116: EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR *
Chart 117: EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR *
Chart 118: EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR *
Chart 119: CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR *
Chart 120: CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR *
Chart 121: (EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR*
Chart 122: EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR*
Chart 123: REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD) *
Chart 124: ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 125: DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 126: VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 127: SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD) *
Chart 128: EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD) *
Chart 129: CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD) *
Chart 130: REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (EUR) *
Chart 131: ARPU BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 132: DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 133: VOICE REVENUE/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 134: SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (EUR) *
Chart 135: EBITDA BY OPERATOR (EUR) *
Chart 136: CAPEX BY OPERATOR (EUR) *

* Available only for RCom, Bharti-Airtel, Idea
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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Wireless subscriber growth in India continues to be one of the fastest in the world
+50.3% industry-average subscriber growth in 3Q.2008

ARPU levels continue to fall at an increasing rate and we do not see these stabilizing
-14.2% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 3Q.2008

Data ARPU growth also continues to register in negative territory

Minutes of Use per Subscriber started to pick up
+2.9% average MOU/Sub growth (YoY) in 3Q.2008

EBITDA growth slows down across operators in India but margins remain stable
+10% industry-average EBITDA growth in 3Q.2008

So what is IEMR’s Forecast?
Total subscribers to reach 840.8 million in 2013
~ By combining historical trends with the current market conditions, our forecasting model predicts that the number of total subscribers in India will reach 840.8 million in 2013.
~ We expect that over 90% of these subscribers will continue to be prepaid subscribers rather than post-paid subscribers over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.

We see some shift in market share among operators with BSNL and regional players losing market share to Reliance, Vodafone-Essar, Bharti-Airtel, and to a certain extent Idea

ARPU declines to continue over the next five years

We are forecasting improvements in EBITDA margins over the 2008-2013 period
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- Bharti-Airtel
- BSNL
- Idea
- Reliance Communications (RCom)
- Vodafone-Essar
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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