Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers up to 65 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
+18.1% industry average subscriber growth in 3Q.2008
ARPU growth levels are decreasing
-13.3% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 3Q.2008
Minutes of Use per Subscriber increasing at SingTel
+7.9% industry-wide average
Operators seeing their EBITDA growth decrease
Industry average EBITDA growth was -5% in 3Q.2008
So what is our forecast?
The number of total subscriber accounts in Singapore to reach 7 million in 2013
- We forecast that total subscribers in Singapore will increase from 6.1 million in 2009 to 7.1 million in 2013.
SingTel will see its market share increase slightly over the next five years
- SingTel will continue to lead Singapore in market shares; we forecast that SingTel's market share (by subscribers) will increase from 41.5% in 2009 to 42.1% in 2013.
ARPUs to continue declining from 2009 to 2013
- Our forecasting model predicts that SingTel's monthly ARPU will decline from SGD 51.27 in 2009 to SGD 47.23 in 2013.
- We forecast that MobileOne's ARPU will decrease from SGD 37.44 to SGD 32.19, and StarHub's ARPU will decrease from SGD 50.30 to SGD 45.91 over the forecast period, 2009 - 2013.
Industry-average EBITDA margin to deteriorate over the next five years
- We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will fall from 35.8% in 2009 to 33.1% in 2013.
- It will continue to be MobileOne that enjoys the highest profitability among other operators; our model predicts that MobileOne's EBITDA margin in 2013 will be 37.3% compared to SingTel's 33.4% and StarHub's 30.4%.