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Asia-Pacific Telecom Insider / Vol. 1, No 2, Edition 2 - Emerging Mobile Markets of Central Asia: The Game Is On


Description: We believe that due to the sheer size of their population, the Central Asian markets offer an outstanding organic mobile growth opportunity: Over the next five years, we project that mobile subscriptions in the region will grow at a 13% CAGR, resulting in 27m new subscriptions. And although personal income is forecast to increase very slowly in most of these countries, total mobile services revenue will grow at an 8% CAGR in US dollar terms — reaching US$4.6bn in 2013 — thanks to the massive increase in subscriptions.

This Telecom Insider examines the Central Asian mobile markets’ growth potential in light of the current economic environment, competitive situation, regulations and adoption of new technologies. The report looks in detail at each of five mobile markets: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan

Central Asia's emerging markets will continue flocking to mobile telecom services over the next five years, with subscriber bases growing about 13 percent per year and revenues growing by 8 percent annually through 2013, according to this latest report.

Emerging Mobile Markets of Central Asia: The Game Is On examines the growth potential for mobile services in Central Asia in light of the current economic environment, competitive situation, regulations, and adoption of new technologies. This 14-page report analyzes five key Central Asian mobile markets: Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.

Central Asia's large population, its almost non-existent fixed telecommunications, and its comparatively low mobile penetration all point to considerable growth potential for mobile operators in the region, notes Bakhyt Weeks, analyst at Pyramid Research and author of the report. "We expect more than 26.5 million new subscriptions to be added in these markets between 2008 and 2013 – a 13 percent CAGR. This is roughly equal to, and potentially even higher than, the total net additions in the Central and Eastern European region during the same period," she says.

Revenue growth will lag subscriber growth as operators add more lower-income users, Weeks says. "However, in spite of the relatively low levels of personal income, total mobile services revenue will grow at an 8 percent CAGR in U.S. dollar terms, reaching US$4.6 billion in 2013, thanks to the massive increase in subscriptions," she adds.

Central Asia's potential as a growth area for mobile services has attracted large multinational operators such as MTS, VimpelCom, and TeliaSonera. "These operators have brought international experience, new services, lower prices, and technological innovation, and have in many cases introduced telecom services to previously untouched areas," says Weeks. "MegaFon and Tele2 are also eager to get a piece of this growing market, and this may drive even faster growth," she says.

Emerging Mobile Markets of Central Asia: The Game Is On is part of our Asia Pacific Telecom Insider Report Series. Published monthly for each of the world's most dynamic regions, Telecom Insiders are packed with trend analysis, industry best practices, market sizing and forecasting, competitor analysis, and case studies, providing you information you can leverage to make better business decisions.


Contents: Introduction Central Asia: A mobile market full of potential
A. The region’s mobile market has considerable growth potential
B. The presence of MTS, VimpelCom and TeliaSonera boosts mobile growth
C. The region’s revenue will show an 8% CAGR in 2008-2013 Market detail
CASE STUDY: Kazakhstan
CASE STUDY: Kyrgyzstan
CASE STUDY: Tajikistan
CASE STUDY: Turkmenistan
CASE STUDY: Uzbekistan
Conclusions
Key findings
Recommendations Related resources

Table of exhibits
1. Subscription penetration and population of five Central Asian countries, with Hungary and Czech Republic for comparison
2. Map of Central Asia
3. Private consumption per head in Central Asian countries, US$ per year, 2006-2010
4. Largest MNOs’ KPIs in Central Asia
5. Mobile services revenue in five Central Asian countries (US$m), 2006-2013
6. Mobile operators in Kazakhstan: Ownership and KPIs (2008 estimate)
7. Mobile subscriptions and penetration in Kazakhstan by operator, 2006-2013
8. Mobile subscriptions and penetration in Kyrgyzstan by operator, 2006-2013
9. Mobile subscriptions and penetration in Tajikistan by operator, 2006-2013
10. Mobile subscriptions in Turkmenistan by operator, Q1 2006 to Q4 2008
11. Mobile subscriptions in Uzbekistan by operator, with major players’ market entry dates, 2003-3013


Summary: Key findings

From 2006 to 2008, the number of mobile subscriptions in Central Asia grew by 22m, while penetration almost tripled. The region’s large population, almost non-existent fixed telecommunications and comparatively low mobile penetration points to the growth potential, in spite of the relatively low levels of income. The number of mobile subscriptions should reach 60.2m in 2013, up from 33.0m in 2008.

The lion’s share of net additions will come in Uzbekistan, the most populous country in the region. The total number of mobile subscriptions in that country will reach 26.4m in 2013, thus putting Uzbekistan ahead of the current leader, Kazakhstan.

The recent growth has resulted from the regional involvement of large multinational players, such as MTS, VimpelCom and TeliaSonera. These operators have brought international experience, new services, lower prices and technological innovation. MegaFon and Tele2 are also eager to get a piece of this growing market, which may drive even faster growth.


Companies Mentioned - MTS - VimpelCom - TeliaSonera - MegaFon - Tele2 - MCT - Corp - Bitel - Sky Mobile - GSM Kazakhstan - Altel - Kazakhtelecom - Mobile Telecom Service - Mobi - MegaCom - Aktel - Fonex - Indigo-Somoncom - Babilon Mobile - TT Mobile - BCTI - Barash Telecom - Altyn - Asyr - Uzdunrobita - Rubicon - Unitel - Uzbektelecom - Coscom


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