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China Commercial Banking Report Q1 2009 - Product Image

China Commercial Banking Report Q1 2009

  • ID: 695520
  • February 2009
  • Region: China
  • 50 Pages
  • Business Monitor International

This China Commercial Banking Report provides independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on China's commercial banking industry.

The real macroeconomic effects of the credit crunch have already begun to play out in China, and we expect a continuation into 2009. As anticipated, Q408 GDP data confirmed that the country is far from immune to the unfolding global recession, with real growth dropping to 6.8% year-on-year (y-o-y). This marked the weakest outturn in seven years and dragged full-year growth to 9.0%, a sharp decline from the 13.0% recorded in 2007 and the first time since 2002 that the world’s third largest economy had failed to register double-digit headline growth. With things expected to get worse before they get better, we are anticipating further grim news from China in H109 and reiterate our below-consensus 5.6% growth forecast for the year. The banking system will be particularly hard hit, with asset and credit growth likely to fall both on the back of rising external borrowing costs and declining domestic demand for new loans. We stress, though, that the key risks in China’s case are for a protracted slowdown and not a systemic crisis. As such, READ MORE >

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Executive Summary
Table: Levels (CNYbn)
Table: Levels (US$bn)
Table: Levels At December 31 2007
Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections, 2007-2012 (%)
Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In Q208
Table: Projected Levels (CNYbn)
Table: Projected Levels (US$bn)
Key Issues
China Commercial Banking SWOT
China Political SWOT
China Economic SWOT
China Business Environment SWOT
Development Of BMI’s Commercial Banking Reports
The Global Financial Crisis – Continued
Table: Selected European Countries – Projected Budget And Current Account, 2008 (as % of GDP)
New Information From Q209
Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating
Table: China’s Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
Table: Asia Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
Bank Lending
Lending Overview
Table: Lending Overview (CNYbn)
Total Assets, Client Loans And Client Deposits
Table: Comparison Of Total Assets, Client Loans And Client Deposits (US$bn)
Per-Capita Deposits
Table: Comparison Of Per-Capita Deposits, Late 2007 (US$)
Political Outlook
Domestic Politics
Foreign Policy
Macroeconomic Trends And Developments
Table: China – Economic Activity
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections, 2007-2012 (%)
Table: Projected Levels (CNYbn)
Table: Projected Levels (US$bn)
Comment On Developments Over Last Year
Comment On Forecasts
Comment On Trends And Ratios
Table: Comparison Of Loan/Deposit, Loan/Asset And Loan/GDP Ratios, Late 2007/Early 2008
Banks’ Bond Portfolios
Table: Bond Portfolios, Late 2007
Competitive Landscape And Protagonists
Country Snapshot: China Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2005-2012
Methodology
Methodology
Basis Of Projections
Commercial Bank Business Environment Rating
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Indicators And Rationale
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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