The World Market for Gas Oils: A 2009 Global Trade Perspective
ICON Group International, January 2009, Pages: 37
This report was created for strategic planners, international executives and import/export managers who are concerned with the market for gas oils. With the globalization of this market, managers can no longer be contented with a local view. Nor can managers be contented with out-of-date statistics that appear several years after the fact. I have developed a methodology, based on macroeconomic and trade models, to estimate the market for gas oils for those countries serving the world market via exports or supplying from various countries via imports. I do so for the current year based on a variety of key historical indicators and econometric models.
On the demand side, exporters and strategic planners approaching the world market face a number of questions. Which countries are supplying gas oils? What is the dollar value of these imports? How much do the imports of gas oils vary from one country to another? Do exporters serving the world market have similar market shares across the importing countries? Which countries supply the most exports of gas oils? Which countries are buying their exports? What is the value of these exports and which countries are the largest buyers?
In what follows, Chapter 2 begins by summarizing the regional markets for imported and exported gas oils. The total level of imports and exports on a worldwide basis, and those for each region, is based on a model which aggregates across over 150 key country markets and projects these to the current year. From there, each country represents a percent of the world market. This market is served from a number of competitive countries of origin. Based on both demand- and supply-side dynamics, market shares by country of origin are then calculated across each country market destination. These shares lead to a volume of import and export values for each country and are aggregated to regional and world totals. In doing so, we are able to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of both the value of each market and the shares that countries are likely to receive this year. From these figures, rankings are calculated to allow managers to prioritize markets. In this way, all the figures provided in this report are forecasts that can be combined with internal information for strategic planning purposes.
After the worldwide summary in Chapter 2 of both imports and exports, Chapter 3 details the exports of gas oils, for each individual country. Chapter 4 does the same, but for imports of gas oils for all countries in the world. In all cases, the total dollar volume and percentage share values by major trading partner are provided. Combined, Chapters 3 and 4 present the complete picture for imports and exports of gas oils to and from all major countries in the world. Of the 150 countries considered, if a country is not reported here it is therefore estimated to have only a negligible level of trade in gas oils (i.e. their market shares are close or equal to zero percent). "Gas Oils" as a category is defined in this report following the definition given by the United Nations Statistics Division Classification Registry using the Standard International Trade Classification, Revision 3 (SITC, Rev. 3). The SITC code that defined "gas oils" is 3343 . For more information on this definition, please refer to the following web site:
http://unstats.un.org/unsd/cr/registry/regcs.asp?Cl=14&Lg=1&Co=334 .
Important Caveat. The figures should be seen as market estimates, as opposed to historical records, as these are forecasted for the current year of trade. More importantly, in light of the fact that unforeseeable factors might interrupt markets in achieving their reported levels, the figures should be seen as estimates of potential. For example, "mad cow" disease, foot-and-mouth disease, trade embargoes, labor disputes, military conflicts, acts of terrorism and other events will certainly affect the actual trade flows recorded for a variety of industry or product categories. In such cases, the difference between the numbers given in this report and the numbers actually observed might be interpreted as the "net loss" or "net gain" due to these exogenous events affecting regular trade flows that would have occurred had these events not have taken place.
Related Reports. This report was created for the market for gas oils. Closely related reports published by ICON Group include the following:
The World Market for Gas Oils: A 2009 Global Trade Perspective
The World Market for Gasoline and Aviation Fuel Excluding Jet Fuel: A 2009 Global Trade Perspective
The World Market for Gasoline and Other Light Oils: A 2009 Global Trade Perspective
The World Market for Gasoline-Type Jet Fuel: A 2009 Global Trade Perspective
The World Market for Kerosene and Kerosene-Type Jet Fuel: A 2009 Global Trade Perspective
The World Market for Kerosene and Other Medium Oils Excluding Gas Oils: A 2009 Global Trade Perspective
The World Market for Mineral Tars and Their Distillation Products Including Similar Products Obtained by Processing Petroleum or by Any Other Process: A 2009 Global Trade Perspective
The World Market for Petroleum Jelly; Paraffin Wax, Microcrystalline Petroleum Wax, and Other Mineral Waxes Obtained by Synthesis or Other Process: A 2009 Global Trade Perspective
The World Market for Pitch and Pitch Coke from Coal Tar or Other Mineral Tars: A 2009 Global Trade Perspective
1 METHODOLOGY 7
1.1 Our Approach 7
2 THE WORLD MARKET 9
2.1 Exports 9
2.1.1 The World Market: Gas Oils Export Supplies in 2009 9
2.2 Imports 11
2.2.1 The World Market: Imported Gas Oils in 2009 11
3 EXPORTS 13
3.1 Africa: Export Supplies of Gas Oils 13
3.1.1 Executive Summary 13
3.1.2 Egypt 14
3.1.3 Rwanda 14
3.2 Asia: Export Supplies of Gas Oils 14
3.2.1 Executive Summary 14
3.2.2 Japan 15
3.2.3 Malaysia 16
3.2.4 Singapore 16
3.2.5 South Korea 16
3.2.6 Thailand 16
3.3 Europe: Export Supplies of Gas Oils 17
3.3.1 Executive Summary 17
3.3.2 Italy 18
3.3.3 Russia 18
3.3.4 the Netherlands 18
3.3.5 the United Kingdom 19
3.3.6 Ukraine 19
3.4 Latin America: Export Supplies of Gas Oils 19
3.4.1 Executive Summary 19
3.4.2 Venezuela 20
3.5 North America & the Caribbean: Export Supplies of Gas Oils 20
3.5.1 Executive Summary 20
3.5.2 Aruba 22
3.5.3 the Netherlands Antilles 22
3.5.4 the United States 22
3.5.5 Trinidad and Tobago 22
3.6 Oceana: Export Supplies of Gas Oils 23
3.6.1 Executive Summary 23
3.6.2 Australia 23
3.7 the Middle East: Export Supplies of Gas Oils 23
3.7.1 Executive Summary 23
3.7.2 Azerbaijan 25
3.7.3 Kuwait 25
3.7.4 Qatar 25
3.7.5 Saudi Arabia 26
3.7.6 the United Arab Emirates 26
3.7.7 Turkey 26
4 IMPORTS 27
4.1 Africa: Gas Oils Imports in 2009 27
4.1.1 Executive Summary 27
4.1.2 Egypt 28
4.2 Asia: Gas Oils Imports in 2009 28
4.2.1 Executive Summary 28
4.2.2 Indonesia 30
4.3 Latin America: Gas Oils Imports in 2009 30
4.3.1 Executive Summary 30
4.3.2 Guyana 31
4.4 North America & the Caribbean: Gas Oils Imports in 2009 32
4.4.1 Executive Summary 32
4.4.2 St. Lucia 33
4.4.3 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 33
4.5 the Middle East: Gas Oils Imports in 2009 34
4.5.1 Executive Summary 34
4.5.2 Syrian Arab Republic 35
5 DISCLAIMERS, WARRANTEES, AND USER AGREEMENT PROVISIONS 36
5.1 Disclaimers & Safe Harbor 36
5.2 ICON Group Ltd. User Agreement Provisions 37
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