Fighting the Market Slowdown in Alcoholic Drinks: Growth Hotspots, Innovation and Changing Consumer Preferences
Scripp Business Insights, February 2009, Pages: 136
Report Overview...
The global market for alcoholic drinks was worth US$979bn in 2007, equivalent to 1,460bn servings. Although sales of alcoholic drinks are typically relatively immune from recessions, although the current economic downturn has coincided with a period of higher inflation and rising prices which have dampened demand for alcoholic drinks. However, the downturn itself is likely to have a positive effect on demand. In developed markets consumers will spend more time socializing and drinking at home. In emerging markets consumers will buy fewer consumer durables and spend part of the savings on everyday treats such as beer, wine and spirits.
‘Fighting the Market Slowdown in Alcoholic Drinks: Growth hotspots, innovation and changing consumer preferences’ is a new report that evaluates which regions, countries and products are expected to grow over the next five years. This report provides an understanding of underlying consumer purchasing triggers in alcoholic drinks as well as an in-depth analysis of regulatory developments and product innovations on a domestic and global scale.
Key Findings...
The volume of alcoholic drinks consumed in western Europe is forecast to decline over the period 2007-2012 by an average of 0.2% per annum.
Between 2007 and 2012 the annual sales of spirits globally is forecast to increase by over 1bn liters. 70% of this increase will take place in Asia-Pacific markets.
China is the largest beer market in the world, having overtaken the US in recent years. This growth is being driven by a growing middle class that has increasingly Western tastes plus a shift away from traditional spirits consumption.
Globally, there will be an additional 18.7bn liters of beer/cider/FABs sold in 2012 compared to 2007. 62% of this increase will take place in Asia-Pacific and 29% will be in Eastern Europe. Less than 8% of this growth will be in North America and these regional rises will be a result of the decline in the Western European market.
Use this report to...
- Quantify key beer, wine and spirits markets and growth potential based on market value and volume sales data between 2007 and 2012 by category, region, country and product tag.
- Improve the targeting and effectiveness of your NPD strategy using this report’s analysis of product launch data of 4,800 beer, wine and spirits products launched globally between 2005-2008.
- Identify key trends that are shaping the beer, wine and spirit market, and evaluate the trends likely to become important over the coming years.
- Understand consumption patterns of alcoholic drinks with this report’s detailed analysis of the changing share of throat held by beer, wine and spirits across key regions.
Key issues...
Changing consumer consumption. In terms of number of servings, spirits is the largest sector (accounting for 46% of servings), ahead of beer (43% of servings). The latter is expanding at the expense of the former and the two will almost be equal by 2012. Wine only accounts for a steady 11% of servings.
Emerging beer markets. Nine out of the ten countries with the highest levels of predicted sales over the next five years are emerging markets.
Premiumization. Multinational operators are facing increasing competition from local players that have started to develop their own premium and super-premium brands with high quality products, packaging and promotion.
Ageing population. In developed markets, the proportion of consumers in senior age groups continues to increase, and this will be reflected in increased upscale product sales. This is due to the population group having a more sophisticated palate.
Your questions answered...
- How is the share of throat held by beer, wine and spirits changing over time?
- Which alcoholic drinks categories and regions offer the greatest sales growth potential to 2012?
- What are the key trends that will shape the future of the beer, wine and spirits markets?
- Where will growth in the beer market be most significant?
- Which beer, wine and spirits product categories are growing fastest?
- What are the key consumer drivers of growth of beer, wine and spirits sales in emerging countries?
- Who is driving innovation in alcoholic drnks market?
- How is the growing trend of premiumization impacting product development and new product launches?
Fighting The Market Slowdown In Alcoholic Drinks Executive summary 11
Market overview 11
Beer, cider & FABs 12
Wine 13
Spirits 14
Conclusions 15
Chapter 1 Market overview 18
Summary 18
Introduction 18
World demand for alcoholic drinks 19
Market drivers 19
Growth of the young adult population 19
Expanding middle classes 20
Premiumization 21
Effects of the economic downturn 22
Regional opportunities in alcoholic drinks 23
Growth in per capita consumption 25
Share of throat in alcoholic drinks 27
Competitive structure 31
Chapter 2 Key regions, share of throat and key players in beer, cider & FABs 34
Summary 34
Introduction 35
Market volume 35
Share of throat 37
Key players 39
Anheuser-Busch InBev 39
SABMiller 39
Heineken 40
Private label 41
Beer 42
Key regions 43
US 43
China 44
Russia 45
Eastern Europe 46
Thailand 47
India 49
Brazil 50
Vietnam 51
Growth in per capita consumption 52
By segment 52
Cider 54
Key regions 54
UK 54
France 55
Ireland 55
Other opportunities 56
FABs 56
Key regions 57
Russia 57
Germany 58
Mexico 59
Chapter 3 Key regions, share of throat and key players in wine 62
Summary 62
Introduction 63
Market Volume 63
Share of throat 65
Growth in per capita consumption 66
Key players 67
Private label 68
By region 69
Russia & Ukraine 72
Romania 75
US 75
Less elitism 76
Premiumization 79
Personal pack sizes 79
Canada 81
UK 81
China 84
Australia 85
Brazil 86
By segment 87
Red wine 87
White wine 89
Rosé wine 91
Sparkling wine 92
Champagne 95
Fortified wine 97
Chapter 4 Key regions, share of throat and key players in spirits 102
Summary 102
Introduction 103
Market volume 103
Share of throat 105
Growth in per capita consumption 106
Key players 107
Diageo 107
Local producers 107
Private label 107
By region 109
India 112
US 113
Asia 115
By segment 116
Whiskey 116
Rum 117
Vodka 118
Tequila 121
Liqueurs 123
Brandy 125
Gin 127
Other opportunities 128
Chapter 5 Conclusions 130
Summary 130
10 key trends for the future 131
1 - Globalization of mass consumption 131
2 - The rise of senior consumers 131
3 - Smaller cities in emerging markets 132
4 - Healthier products 132
5 - Personal pack sizes 132
6 - Craft products 132
7 - Premium products 133
8 - Non-Western premium brands 133
9 - Beer mega-brands 133
10 - New global spirits combines 134
List of Figures
Figure 1.1: Alcoholic drinks sales value by region, 2002-2012 23
Figure 1.2: Growth of alcoholic drinks sales value by region, 2002-2012 24
Figure 1.3: Additional servings in 2012 cf 2007 26
Figure 1.4: Alcoholic drinks sales value by product group, 2002-2012 27
Figure 1.5: Alcoholic drinks servings by product group, 2002-2012 28
Figure 2.6: Additional beer, cider & FABs sales volume by region, 2007-2012 36
Figure 2.7: Additional beer sales volume by country (top 10), 2007-2012 43
Figure 2.8: Engel Spezial for the Russian female market 46
Figure 2.9: Federbrau for the Thai premium beer market 49
Figure 2.10: Apple Frost for the French cider market 55
Figure 2.11: New products for the Russian FABs market 58
Figure 2.12: Examples of beer mixes from Germany 59
Figure 2.13: New products for the Mexican FABs market 59
Figure 3.14: Additional wine sales volume by market, 2007-2012 64
Figure 3.15: Additional wine sales volume by region, 2007-2012 71
Figure 3.16: New products for the Russian imported wine market 74
Figure 3.17: Vinesse for the US young adult wine market 77
Figure 3.18: Products designed for shelf stand out 78
Figure 3.19: Products designed for ease of navigation 78
Figure 3.20: Wines in personal pack sizes 80
Figure 3.21: New products for the UK wine market 84
Figure 3.22: New products for the Australian wine market 86
Figure 3.23: New products for the red wine market 88
Figure 3.24: Vinowell for the healthier white wine market 90
Figure 3.25: Gallo wine for the UK rosé market 92
Figure 3.26: New products for the sparkling wine market 94
Figure 3.27: Pommery Pop for the Champagne market 96
Figure 3.28: New products for the Russian, Ukrainian fortified wine markets 97
Figure 3.29: New sake for the US fortified wine market 98
Figure 3.30: New products for the European fortified wine market 99
Figure 4.31: Additional spirits sales volume by market, 2007-2012 104
Figure 4.32: Intermarché private labels for the French spirits market 108
Figure 4.33: Additional spirits sales volume by region, 2007-2012 111
Figure 4.34: New products for the Indian whisky market 113
Figure 4.35: New products for the US female spirits market 114
Figure 4.36: New entrants into the US spirits market 115
Figure 4.37: Diet Mate for the Indian whisky market 116
Figure 4.38: Absolut Los Angeles for the US flavored vodka market 119
Figure 4.39: New products for the Brazilian vodka market 120
Figure 4.40: New products for the European liqueurs market 123
Figure 4.41: New products for the Japanese cocktail liqueurs market 124
Figure 4.42: Bejois for the Indian brandy market 126
List of Tables
Table 1.1: Alcoholic drinks sales value and volume, 2002-2012 19
Table 1.2: Young Adults' alcoholic spend as a percentage of all groups' spend (%), US & Europe, 2000-2010 20
Table 1.3: Alcoholic drinks servings by region, 2002-2012 25
Table 1.4: Additional alcoholic drinks servings per capita by region, 2007-2012 25
Table 1.5: Alcoholic drinks servings by product group, 2002-2012 28
Table 1.6: Share of throat by alcoholic drink product by region, 2007 29
Table 1.7: Change in share of throat by alcoholic drink product by region, 2007-2012 31
Table 1.8: Market share of private label by product and region, 2006 31
Table 1.9: Market share of top 3 companies by product and region, 2007 32
Table 2.10: Beer, cider & FABs sales volume by region, 2002-2012 35
Table 2.11: Beer, cider & FABs sales volume by market, 2002-2012 37
Table 2.12: Additional beer, cider & FABs sales volume by market, 2007-2012 37
Table 2.13: Share of throat for beer, cider & FABs by region, 2007 38
Table 2.14: Change in share of throat for beer, cider & FABs by region, 2007-2012 38
Table 2.15: Market share of leading brewers by region, 2007 40
Table 2.16: Market share of private label beer, US & Europe, 2001-2011 41
Table 2.17: Additional beer sales volume by country (top 10), 2007-2012 42
Table 2.18: Additional beer sales volume per capita by country (top 10), 2007-2012 52
Table 2.19: Share of beer types in Europe, the US and Japan, 2007 53
Table 2.20: Share of throat by beer type in Europe, the US and Japan, 2007-2012 53
Table 2.21: Additional cider sales by country (top 5), 2007-2012 54
Table 2.22: Additional FAB sales by country (top 5), 2007-2012 57
Table 3.23: Wine sales volume by market, 2002-2012 63
Table 3.24: Share of throat by wine type by region, 2007 65
Table 3.25: Change in share of throat by wine type by region, 2007-2012 66
Table 3.26: Additional wine sales volume per capita by country (top 10), 2007-2012 67
Table 3.27: Market share of leading vintners by continent, 2006 68
Table 3.28: Market share of private label wine, US & Europe, 2001-2011 69
Table 3.29: Wine sales volume by region, 2002-2012 69
Table 3.30: Wine sales value by region, 2002-2012 70
Table 3.31: Additional wine sales volume by country (top 10), 2007-2012 72
Table 3.32: Additional red wine sales by country (top 10), 2007-2012 89
Table 3.33: Additional white wine sales by country (top 10), 2007-2012 89
Table 3.34: Additional rosé wine sales by country (top 5), 2007-2012 92
Table 3.35: Additional sparkling wine sales by country (top 10), 2007-2012 93
Table 3.36: Additional Champagne sales by country (top 5), 2007-2012 96
Table 3.37: Additional fortified wine sales by country (top 5), 2007-2012 98
Table 4.38: Spirits sales volume by market, 2002-2012 103
Table 4.39: Share of throat by spirits type by region, 2007 105
Table 4.40: Change in share of throat by spirits type by region, 2007-2012 106
Table 4.41: Additional spirits sales volume per capita by country (top 10), 2007-2012 106
Table 4.42: Market share of private label spirits, US & Europe, 2001-2011 107
Table 4.43: Market share of leading distillers by region, 2007 109
Table 4.44: Spirits sales volume by region, 2002-2012 110
Table 4.45: Spirits sales value by region, 2002-2012 110
Table 4.46: Additional spirits sales volume by country (top 10), 2007-2012 112
Table 4.47: Additional whiskey sales volume by country (top 10), 2007-2012 117
Table 4.48: Additional rum sales volume by country (top 10), 2007-2012 118
Table 4.49: Additional vodka sales volume by country (top 10), 2007-2012 121
Table 4.50: Additional tequila sales volume by country (top 5), 2007-2012 122
Table 4.51: Additional liqueurs sales volume by country (top 5), 2007-2012 125
Table 4.52: Additional brandy sales volume by country (top 5), 2007-2012 127
Table 4.53: Additional gin sales volume by country (top 5), 2007-2012 127
-Anheuser-Busch InBev
-SABMiller
-Heineken
-Diageo
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