1Q09 Indonesia Mobile Operator Forecast, 2008 – 2013
IE Market Research Corp, March 2009
Telkomsel and Satelindo to lose market shares to Excelcomindo, Telkom Flexi, and Star One over the next five years
Mobile Operator Forecast on Indonesia provides over various operational and financial metrics for Indonesia’s wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide six-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 4Q2013. Operators covered for Indonesia include Telkomsel, Satelindo + IM3, Excelcomindo, Telkom Flexi, and StarOne. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers up to 65 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Subscriber growth remains strong in Indonesia
+53.5 % subscriber growth in Indonesia in 3Q.2008
ARPU growth has declined considerably in the last two quarters
ARPU growth was -25.5% in 3Q.2008 - the steepest decline ever in Indonesia
Data ARPU registers in double-digit negative territory
- The industry-average Data ARPU growth in 3Q.2008 was -23.6%, down from -1.4% in 3Q.2007.
- Satelindo had the lowest Data ARPU growth rate (YoY) among other operators at -25.9% in 3Q.2008, down from -10.6% in 3Q.2007.
Despite low ARPU, high Churn; EBITDA margins in Indonesia are quite strong
- Simply put, Indonesian operators are some of the most profitable in the world. EBITDA margins reached 64.9% for the top-3 operators in 3Q.2007 and although they have declined to 56.4% in 3Q.2008, they are still robust by any international standards.
So what is our forecast?
Total subscribers to reach 191 million in 2013
- During the forecast period from 2008 to 2013, we expect the subscriber base in Indonesia to increase from 135.7 million in 2008 to 191 million in 2013.
- We expect that Telkomsel will continue to be the largest wireless operator in Indonesia with approximately 82.3 million subscriber accounts in 2013.
Market shares of Telkomsel and Satelindo will decrease over the next five years
- Although Telkomsel and Satelindo will continue to dominate the Indonesian mobile operator space, we expect that they will be losing market shares to smaller operators over the next several years.
- Our model predicts that Telkomsel's market share (by subscribers) will decrease from 45.6% to 43.1% and that of Satelindo will decrease from 27.0% to 23.2% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
- On the other hand, market shares of Excelcomindo, Telkom Flexi, and Star One will be rising over the next five years to reach 20.9%, 11.9% and 1.0% in 2013.
We are expecting ARPU declines to stabilize over the five three years
- Our model predicts that ARPU declines in Indonesia will begin to stabilize over the five years.It will rise from -28.6% in 2008 to -3.7% in 2013.
We are forecasting slightly decreasing EBITDA margins over the 2008-2013 period
- According to our model, the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA / reported revenue) will decrease from 59.7% in 2008 to 53.7% in 2013. We note that these EBITDA margin figures are still high compared to other countries.
Charts 1-68 Results & Forecasts for: CY 2001-CY 2013
Chart 1: PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS
Chart 2: SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)
Chart 3: SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 4: SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 5: NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 6: NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
Chart 7: MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR **
Chart 8: POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR **
Chart 9: POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) **
Chart 10: PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 11: PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR
Chart 12: POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR **
Chart 13: PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 14: POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR **
Chart 15: POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) **
Chart 16: PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 17: PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
Chart 18: GROSS ADDITIONS BY OPERATOR **
Chart 19: GROSS ADDITIONS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) **
Chart 20: MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR
Chart 21: MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
Chart 22: DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR ***
Chart 23: MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR ***
Chart 24: DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) ***
Chart 25: MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR
Chart 26: VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 27: VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR *
Chart 28: VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) *
Chart 29: MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH) *
Chart 30: MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %) *
Chart 31: AGGREGATE MOU BY OPERATOR *
Chart 32: AGGREGATE MOU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %) *
Chart 33: SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 34: HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE
Chart 35: SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 36: SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR **
Chart 37: SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 38: SHARE OF GROSS ADDS BY OPERATOR **
Chart 39: SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
Chart 40: HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE
Chart 41: YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR
Chart 42: REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
Chart 43: SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
Chart 44: EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) ***
Chart 45: CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) **
Chart 46: SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 47: EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) ***
Chart 48: EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR ***
Chart 49: EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR ***
Chart 50: EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR ***
Chart 51: CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR **
Chart 52: CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR **
Chart 53: (EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR **
Chart 54: EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR ***
Chart 55: REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 56: ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 57: DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD) ***
Chart 58: VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD) *
Chart 59: SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 60: EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD) ***
Chart 61: CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD) **
Chart 62: REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 63: ARPU BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 64: DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (EUR) ***
Chart 65: VOICE REVENUE/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (EUR) *
Chart 66: SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 67: EBITDA BY OPERATOR (EUR) ***
Chart 68: CAPEX BY OPERATOR (EUR) **
Charts 69-136 Quarterly Results for: Mar 2003 - Dec 2013
Chart 69: PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS
Chart 70: SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)
Chart 71: SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 72: SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 73: NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 74: NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
Chart 75: MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR **
Chart 76: POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR **
Chart 77: POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) **
Chart 78: PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 79: PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR
Chart 80: POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR **
Chart 81: PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 82: POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR **
Chart 83: POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) **
Chart 84: PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 85: PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
Chart 86: GROSS ADDITIONS BY OPERATOR **
Chart 87: GROSS ADDITIONS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) **
Chart 88: MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR
Chart 89: MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
Chart 90: DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR ***
Chart 91: MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR ***
Chart 92: DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) ***
Chart 93: MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR
Chart 94: VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 95: VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR *
Chart 96: VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) *
Chart 97: MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH) *
Chart 98: MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %) *
Chart 99: AGGREGATE MOU BY OPERATOR *
Chart 100: AGGREGATE MOU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %) *
Chart 101: SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 102: HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE
Chart 103: SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 104: SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR **
Chart 105: SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 106: SHARE OF GROSS ADDS BY OPERATOR **
Chart 107: SHARE SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
Chart 108: HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE
Chart 109: YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR
Chart 110: REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
Chart 111: SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
Chart 112: EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) ***
Chart 113: CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY) **
Chart 114: SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 115: EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY) ***
Chart 116: EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR ***
Chart 117: EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR ***
Chart 118: EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR ***
Chart 119: CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR **
Chart 120: CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR **
Chart 121: (EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR **
Chart 122: EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR ***
Chart 123: REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 124: ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 125: DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD) ***
Chart 126: VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD) *
Chart 127: SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 128: EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD) ***
Chart 129: CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD) **
Chart 130: REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 131: ARPU BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 132: DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (EUR) ***
Chart 133: VOICE REVENUE/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (EUR) *
Chart 134: SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 135: EBITDA BY OPERATOR (EUR) ***
Chart 136: CAPEX BY OPERATOR (EUR) **
* Not available for this country forecast
** Available only for Telkomsel and Satelindo + IM3
*** Available only for Telkomsel, Satelindo + IM3, and Excelcomindo
-Telkomsel
-Satelindo + IM3
-Excelcomindo
-Telkom Flexi
-StarOne
Also available
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