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2009 Global PV Demand Analysis and Forecast: The Anatomy of a Shakeout II


Description: Demand is the new name of the game in the PV market, and project developers are calling the shots. How project developers react to the economic forces impacting the PV industry will determine the market's near-term future. Understanding the constraints facing project developers is the only way for companies across the PV supply chain to weather the impending shakeout. Faced with limited access to costly capital and waning incentives in major markets, project developers are demanding higher returns from fewer projects. They are passing these pressures on to manufacturers, forcing them to bring down module prices by 25 percent in 2009. Fewer projects lead to slackening demand – projected to increase by only 13 percent in 2009 – and, ultimately, to an industry-wide 15 percent revenue collapse this year alone.

Key Insights:

- Access to projects and financing has replaced access to polysilicon and modules as the market's key gating factor. With this dynamic unfolding, we forecast module average selling prices to fall below $2.50 per Watt in 2009 and $2.00 per Watt in 2010 as demand-side financing pressures force manufacturers to cut prices.

- The industry's market size will contract 15 percent to $12 billion in 2009, and will remain relatively flat through 2012. Low cost and high performance module manufacturers able to retain margins and sell products generating high internal rates of return for project developers will gain an increasingly large share of this shrinking pool of capital.

- Even with rapidly falling prices, market problems in Germany and Spain and the global recession's impact on lending, project finance, and government budgets will grow demand by only 13 percent to 5 GW in 2009. This will be the industry's weakest growth year since 1994.

- The module oversupply is widely misunderstood. In 2009, we forecast a 65 percent overcapacity and a 55 percent surplus in producible supply. The actual number of modules shipped and installed will be far less, leading to sub-35 percent mid-year capacity utilization for many American, European, and Asian multicrystalline manufacturers.

- The true source of module pricing pressure is project developers seeking the minimum price that can be paid to maximize internal rate of return. Forcing manufacturers to compete on price and performance will lead to wholesale margin compression, precipitating a shakeout of high-cost, undifferentiated suppliers.

- An industry dominated by Asian multicrystalline and CIGS – with solid market share for CdTe and Super monocrystalline – will emerge in the near-term. Significantly, by 2012 we forecast thin film modules will comprise 50 percent of incremental demand.

- The emergence of grid parity in some price-sensitive markets as early as 2009 will place a new emphasis on levelized cost of energy and delivered $/kWh as the guiding metric of a manufacturer's competitiveness.


Featured In This Report:

- Quantitative analysis of project economics in Germany, Spain, the United States and Japan for c-Si and thin film-based residential, commercial and utility scale systems.

- First-ever country-level and global PV demand curves from 2009 through 2012 and first-ever reconciliation of independently constructed global PV supply and demand curves, leading to an accurate forecast of market-clearing module average selling prices and equilibrium demand volumes.

- Quantitative analysis of the shakeout's impact on manufacturer profit margins, c-Si and thin film market share, grid parity, project economics, and module pricing.

- In-depth profiles of PV support policies and programs, electricity sector composition, and PV market development in the United States, Germany, Spain, Italy, France, Greece, Portugal, The Netherlands, Czech Republic, Japan, South Korea, Australia, India, China and the United Arab Emirates.


Contents: TABLE OF CONTENTS:

1 Global PV Demand Through 2012: The Anatomy of a Shakeout II
1.1 An Integrated Model of Supply and Demand
1.2 Report Methodology and Scope
1.3 Key Findings
1.4 Report Structure

2 A Modern History of Global PV Demand
2.1 Global PV Demand Drivers
2.1.1 The Benefits of PV
2.1.2 Historical Demand Growth
2.1.3 Historical Global PV Module Revenue Growth
2.2 Major Markets: A Jumping Off Point
2.2.1 Germany Tries to Tame Growth
2.2.2 Spain Hits No. 1
2.2.3 Japan Comes Back From the Edge
2.2.4 The U.S. Begins to Realize Its Potential
2.3 Regional Demand
2.3.1 Major Demand Centers Concentrate Around Support Programs…
2.3.2 …As the Balance of Trade Shifts to Traditional Manufacturing Regions
2.4 Toward Price Elasticity of Demand

3 Understanding Demand Formation
3.1 Variables Affecting Market Demand for PV
3.1.1 Technical Variables
3.1.2 Cost Variables
3.1.3 Financing Variables
3.2 A Methodology for Determining Equity IRR
3.2.1 Why Equity IRR Matters More Than Project IRR
3.3 Demand Starts at the Project
3.3.1 Large Rooftops Drive Value in Germany
3.3.2 Large Systems Predominate in Spain
3.3.3 Japan’s Residential Focus
3.3.4 The United States: PV’s Melting Pot
3.4 Equity IRR Estimation Results
3.4.1 Declining Feed-In Tariffs Reveal Long-Term Value in German Commercial Systems
3.4.2 Spain’s Potential
3.4.3 A Sustainable Market in Japan
3.4.4 California Leads the Way
3.5 c-Si Maximizes Gross Returns While Thin Film Maximizes Equity IRR
3.6 Sensitivity Analysis
3.6.1 IRR Sensitivity
3.6.2 Average Selling Price Sensitivity

4 Base Case Demand Forecast
4.1 Potential Demand vs. Actual Demand
4.2 A Methodology for Estimating Potential Demand
4.3 Country-Level Base Case Demand Forecast
4.3.1 Will Germany Break the Growth Corridors?
4.3.2 100,000 More Solar Roofs in Japan
4.3.3 The U.S. Breaks 1 GW. But When?
4.4 Global Base Case Demand Forecast

5 The Impact of the Recession: A Downside Demand Forecast
5.1 Country-Level Downside Demand Forecast
5.1.1 Feed-In Tariffs Sustain the German Market
5.1.2 Low Interest Rates Keep Japan Isolated
5.1.3 More Value from Fewer Projects in the United States
5.2 Global Downside Demand Forecast

6 Global Supply and Demand Reconciliation
6.1 Analyzing Market Equilibriums
6.2 Global PV Supply Review, 2008–2012
6.2.1 Volumes
6.2.2 Costs
6.2.3 Supply Curves
6.3 Reconciliation Methodology
6.4 Reconciliation Results: Supply, Demand, and Pricing Forecast, 2009–2012
6.4.1 Global Supply and Demand Curves
6.4.2 Global PV Demand Forecast, 2009–2012
6.4.3 Regional Demand Forecast, 2009–2012
6.4.4 Module Pricing Forecast, 2009–2012
6.4.5 Market Size and Revenue Forecast, 2009–2012
6.5 Country-Level PV Demand Forecast, 2009–2012
6.5.1 PV Demand in Germany, 2007–2012
6.5.2 PV Demand in Japan, 2007–2012
6.5.3 PV Demand in the United States, 2007–2012
6.6 The PV Market Has Reached an Inflection Point

7 A New Solar Reality?
7.1 Who Gets Through: The Composition of Equilibrium Supply
7.2 Using the Triage System for Comparative Analysis
7.2.1 Tier 1: In the Clear
7.2.2 Tier 2: Uncertain Prospects, and a Struggle to Survive
7.2.3 Tier 3: Victims of the Shakeout
7.3 Market Share: Thin Film Makes Huge Strides
7.4 Capacity Utilization: Multi c-Si and Commoditized a-Si to Face Overcapacity Problems
7.5 Selling Prices and Margins by Technology
7.5.1 Factoring out the Efficiency Differential
7.5.2 De-normalized Module Prices by Technology
7.5.4 “Winning” Module Cost Structures
7.6 Quantifying Risk Premiums
7.7 What if CIGS Ramps Slower Than Expected?
7.8 Supply Sensitivity to Demand Curve Position
7.9 The Emergence of Price Elasticity of Demand
7.10 Utilities Win: Go Big or Go Home
7.11 When Will Subsidies Become Unnecessary?
7.12 Grid Parity: Are We There Yet?
7.13 Concluding Thoughts: A Silver Lining?

8 Appendix - Country Profiles

United States
The United States’ Electricity Sector
Insolation in the United States
Development of the United States’ PV Market
PV Support Programs in the United States
California
New Jersey
Massachusetts

Germany
Germany’s Electricity Sector
Insolation in Germany
Development of the German PV Market
The German PV Program

Spain
Spain’s Electricity Sector
Insolation in Spain
Development of the Spanish PV Market
The Spanish PV Program

Italy
Italy’s Electricity Sector
Insolation in Italy
Development of the Italian PV Market
The Italian PV Program

France
France’s Electricity Sector
Insolation in France
Development of the French PV Market
The French PV Program

Greece
Greece’s Electricity Sector
Insolation in Greece
Development of the Greek PV Market
The Greek PV Program

Portugal

Czech Republic

The Netherlands

Japan
Japan’s Electricity Sector
Insolation in Japan
Development of the Japanese PV Market
The Japanese PV Program

South Korea
South Korea’s Electricity Sector
Insolation in South Korea
Development of the South Korean PV Market
The South Korean PV Program

Australia
Australia’s Electricity Sector
Insolation in Australia
Development of the Australian PV Market
The Australian PV Program

China

India

United Arab Emirates


LIST OF FIGURES:

Figure 1-1: Annual Global PV Demand, Module ASP, and Annual Module Sales Revenue Growth, 2000 – 2008
Figure 1-2: Global Base Case Demand Stack, 2010
Figure 1-3: Global Supply and Demand Reconciliation, 2012
Figure 1-4: Percentage Change in Module ASP Required to Maintain Equity IRR in Germany, 2009
Figure 1-5: Thin-Film Market Share of Supply At or Below Market-Clearing Module Price, 2009–2012
Figure 1-6: LCOE and Feed-in Tariff Rate for a 1 MW c-Si Commercial Rooftop in Germany, 2008–2012

Figure 2-1: Comparison of Generating Technologies by LCOE Cost Components
Figure 2-2: PV Output and Cal-ISO System Demand Load
Figure 2-3: Annual Global PV Demand, 1993–2008
Figure 2-4: PV Demand by Country and Region, Market-Clearing Module ASP, and Global Revenue, 2000–2008
Figure 2-5: Annual Global Sales Revenue from Modules Installed, 1993–2008
Figure 2-6: Annual Sales Revenue Growth from Modules Installed, 1994–2008
Figure 2-7: Market Share of Demand by Major Market, 2000–2008
Figure 2-8: Annual PV Demand in Germany, 2000–2008
Figure 2-9: Germany’s Feed-in Tariff and Annual PV Demand, 2000–2008
Figure 2-10: Annual Aggregate Cost of Germany’s Feed-in Tariff, 2000–2007
Figure 2-11: Average Annual Household Cost of Germany’s Feed-in Tariff, 2000–2007
Figure 2-12: Annual PV Demand in Spain, 2000–2008
Figure 2-13: Annual PV Demand in Japan, 2000–2008
Figure 2-14: Annual PV Demand in the United States, 2000–2008
Figure 2-15: Annual PV Demand by State, 2000–2008
Figure 2-16: Grid-Ted Market Share: California vs. Rest of the United States, 2000–2008
Figure 2-17: Annual Regional PV Demand, 2000–2008
Figure 2-18: Annual Regional PV Demand by Market Share, 2000–2008
Figure 2-19: Net Module Imports and Exports by Major Production Region, 2000–2008
Figure 2-20: Comparison of Market Clearing Module ASPs and Annual Global PV Demand, 1993–2008
Figure 2-21: Price Elasticity of Demand in the Global PV Market, 1993–2008

Figure 3-1: A Quick Note on Exchange Rates
Figure 3-2: Market Share by Application in Germany, 2006–2008
Figure 3-3: Technical Assumptions for Projects in Germany
Figure 3-4: System Cost Assumptions for a 1-MW c-Si Rooftop in Germany, 2008–2012
Figure 3-5: Financing Assumptions for a 1-MW c-Si Rooftop in Germany, 2008–2012
Figure 3-6: Technical Assumptions for Projects in Spain
Figure 3-7: System Cost Assumptions for a 10-MW c-Si Ground Mount 1-Axis in Spain, 2008–2012
Figure 3-8: Financing Assumptions for a 10-MW c-Si 1-Axis in Spain, 2008–2012
Figure 3-9: Market Share by Application in Japan, 2005–2008
Figure 3-10: Technical Assumptions for a 4 kW c-Si Rooftop in Japan
Figure 3-11: System Cost Assumptions for a 4 kW c-Si Rooftop in Japan, 2008–2012
Figure 3-12: Financing Assumptions for a 4 kW c-Si Rooftop in Japan, 2008–2012
Figure 3-13: Grid-Tied Market Share by Application in the United States, 2002–2007
Figure 3-14: Technical Assumptions for Projects in California
Figure 3-15: System Cost Assumptions for a 1-MW Thin-Film Rooftop in California, 2008–2012
Figure 3-16: Financing Assumptions for a 1-MW Thin-Film Rooftop in California, 2008–2012
Figure 3-17: Equity IRR Results for German Projects, 2008–2012
Figure 3-18: LCOE and Feed-In Tariff Rate for a 1-MW c-Si Commercial Rooftop Compared to Average Retail Electricity Rate in Germany, 2008–2012
Figure 3-19: Equity IRR Results for Spanish Projects, 2008–2012
Figure 3-20: LCOE and Feed-in Tariff Rate for a 10-MW c-Si Ground Mount 1-Axis Project Compared to Average Retail Electricity Rate in Spain, 2008–2012
Figure 3-21: Equity IRR Results for the Japanese Project, 2008–2012
Figure 3-22: LCOE for a 4 kW c-Si Rooftop Compared to Average Retail Electricity Rate in Japan, 2008–2012
Figure 3-23: Equity IRR Results for the California Projects, 2008–2012
Figure 3-24: LCOE and Performance-Based Incentive for a 1-MW Thin-Film Commercial Rooftop Compared to Average Commercial Electricity Rate in California, 2008–2012
Figure 3-25: EBITDA for 10-MW c-Si and Thin-Film Projects in Spain, 2008–2012
Figure 3-26: Equity IRR Results for Spanish Projects, 2008–2012
Figure 3-27: Total Area Required for 10-MW c-Si and Thin-Film Projects in Spain
Figure 3-28: IRR Sensitivity Analysis for a 1-MW c-Si Commercial Rooftop in Germany, 2009
Figure 3-29: IRR Sensitivity for a 4 kW c-Si Residential Rooftop in Japan, 2009
Figure 3-30: IRR Sensitivity for a 1-MW Thin-Film Commercial Rooftop in California, 2009
Figure 3-31: IRR Sensitivity to Module ASP, 2009
Figure 3-32: IRR Sensitivity to Module ASP, 2010
Figure 3-33: IRR Sensitivity to Real Interest Rate, 2009
Figure 3-34: IRR Sensitivity to Real Interest Rate, 2010
Figure 3-35: Module ASP Change Required to Maintain Equity IRR, 2009
Figure 3-36: Percentage Change in Module ASP Required to Maintain Equity IRR, 2009

Figure 4-1: Estimated Module ASP Ranges, 2009–2012
Figure 4-2: Base Case Demand, Equity IRR and Module ASP in Germany, 2009
Figure 4-3: The 2009 EEG Revision Growth Corridors, 2009–2011
Figure 4-4: Germany’s Base Case Demand Stack and Weighted Average Equity IRRs, 2009
Figure 4-5: Germany’s Base Case Demand Estimation Results, 2009–2012
Figure 4-6: Germany’s Base Case Demand Curves, 2009–2012
Figure 4-7: Base Case Demand, Equity IRR, and Module ASP in Japan, 2009
Figure 4-8: Japan’s Base Case Demand Stack and Equity IRRs, 2009
Figure 4-9: Japan’s Base Case Demand Estimation Results, 2009–2012
Figure 4-10: Japan’s Base Case Demand Curves, 2009–2012
Figure 4-11: Base Case Demand, Weighted Average Equity IRR, and Module ASP for the United States, 2009
Figure 4-12: The United States’ Base Case Demand Stack and Weighted Average Equity IRRs, 2009
Figure 4-13: The United States’ Base Case Demand Estimation Results, 2009–2012
Figure 4-14: The United States’ Base Case Demand Curves, 2009–2012
Figure 4-15: Global Base Case Demand Stack, 2009
Figure 4-16: Global Base Case Demand Stack, 2010
Figure 4-17: Global Base Case Demand Stack, 2011
Figure 4-18: Global Base Case Demand Stack, 2012
Figure 4-19: Global Base Case Demand Estimation Results, 2009–2012
Figure 4-20: Global Base Case Demand Curves, 2009–2012

Figure 5-1: Downside Demand, Weighted Average Equity IRR, and Module ASP in Germany, 2009
Figure 5-2: Germany’s Downside Demand Stack and Weighted Average Equity IRRs, 2009
Figure 5-3: Germany’s Base Case and Downside Demand Stacks, 2009
Figure 5-4: Downside Demand, Equity IRR, and Module ASP in Japan, 2009
Figure 5-5: Japan’s Downside Demand Stack and Equity IRRs, 2009
Figure 5-6: Japan’s Base Case and Downside Demand Stacks, 2009
Figure 5-7: Downside Demand, Weighted Average Equity IRR, and Module ASP in the United States, 2009
Figure 5-8: The United States’ Downside Demand Stack and Weighted Average Equity IRRs, 2009
Figure 5-9: The United States’ Base Case and Downside Demand Stacks, 2009
Figure 5-10: Global Downside Demand Stack, 2009
Figure 5-11: Global Downside Demand Stack, 2010
Figure 5-12: Global Downside Demand Estimation Results, 2009–2012
Figure 5-13: Global Downside Demand Curves, 2009–2012

Figure 6-1: Base Case Global Supply and Demand Reconciliation, 2009–2012
Figure 6-2: Historical and Producible Module Output by Technology
Figure 6-3: PV Module Manufacturing Costs and Prices, 2010
Figure 6-4: Global PV Module Supply Stacks, 2008–2012
Figure 6-5: Efficiency-Normalized Global PV Module Supply Stacks, 2008–2012
Figure 6-6: Efficiency-Normalized Global PV Module Supply Stacks, 2010, Color-coded by Technology/Location
Figure 6-7: Global Supply and Demand Reconciliation, 2009
Figure 6-8: Global Supply and Demand Reconciliation, 2010
Figure 6-9: Global Supply and Demand Reconciliation, 2011
Figure 6-10: Global Supply and Demand Reconciliation, 2012
Figure 6-11: PV Demand by Country and Region, Market Clearing ASP, and Global Module Sales Revenue, 2007–2012
Figure 6-12: Annual Global PV Demand, 2007–2012
Figure 6-13: Modules Installed and Channel Inventory, 2007–2012
Figure 6-14: Base Case Annual Regional PV Demand, 2007–2012
Figure 6-15: Base Case Annual PV Demand by Major Production Region, 2009–2012
Figure 6-16: Regional Market Share of Demand, 2009–2012
Figure 6-17: Supply Entering Market at Market Clearing Price by Major Production Region, 2009–2012
Figure 6-18: Regional Market Share of Production at Equilibrium Market Clearing Price, 2009–2012
Figure 6-19: Net Modules Imports as a Percentage of Domestic Module Demand in Major Production Regions, 2009–2012
Figure 6-20: Base Case c-Si and Thin-Film Module ASP, 2006–2012
Figure 6-21: Base Case Market-Clearing ASPs and Weighted Average Blended Module ASPs, 2006–2012
Figure 6-22: Base Case Efficiency Normalized and Final Market Clearing ASPs, 2009–2012
Figure 6-23: Base Case and Downside Market Clearing ASPs, 2009–2012
Figure 6-24: Base Case Annual Revenue from Modules Installed, 1993–2012
Figure 6-25: Base Case Annual Revenue Growth from Modules Installed, 1994–2012
Figure 6-26: Base Case and Downside Total Revenue, 2008–2012
Figure 6-27: Revenue Sensitivity to Module ASP, 2009
Figure 6-28: Market Share of Major Markets, 2008–2012
Figure 6-29: Equity IRR Values by Project Type in Germany, 2009–2012
Figure 6-30: Market Share by Application in Germany, 2009–2012
Figure 6-31: Base Case Demand and Weighted Average Equity IRR in Germany, 2007–2012
Figure 6-32: Base Case Demand and Equity IRR in Japan, 2007–2012
Figure 6-33: Equity IRR Values by Project Type in California, 2009–2012
Figure 6-34: Market Share by Application in the United States, 2009–2012
Figure 6-35: Base Case Demand and Weighted Average Equity IRR in the United States, 2007–2012
Figure 6-36: Historical and Base Case Supply, Demand and Pricing Forecast, 2007–2012
Figure 6-37: Historical and Downside Supply, Demand and Pricing Forecast, 2007–2012

Figure 7-1: Summary of Supply at or Below Equilibrium Price—Base Case, 2009–2012
Figure 7-2: Summary of Supply Entering Stack at 15 Percent Above Equilibrium Price)
Figure 7-7: Producible Thin-Film Modules as Percentage of Total, 2009–2012
Figure 7-8: Thin-Film Market Share, 2009–2012, Base Case (Percent of Supply At/Below Equilibrium)
Figure 7-9: Historical and Projected Global Module Capacity, 2007–2012 (MW)
Figure 7-10: Mid-Year Capacity Utilization by Technology 2009–2012, Base Case
Figure 7-11: Mid-year Capacity Factors for Crystalline Silicon-Based Technologies, 2009-2012, Base Case
Figure 7-12: Efficiency-adjustment of Costs and Prices for Super Monocrystalline Silicon Producer
Figure 7-13: De-normalized Module Prices by Technology, 2009–2012 ($/W)7.5.3 Profit Margins
Figure 7-14: Profit Margins by Technology/Location, 2009–2012
Figure 7-15: Summary of Prices, Costs and Profit Margins by Technology/Location, 2009–2012
Figure 7-16: Highest “Winning” Module Cost Structure, 2010 and 2012
Figure 7-17: Supply at/below Equilibrium, 2009, Base Case vs. “Risk Premium” Case
Figure 7-18: Percentage of Supply at/below Equilibrium Price by Location/Technology, “Risk Premium” Case
Figure 7-19: Tier 1 Supply, “Risk Premium” Case
Figure 7-20: Potential vs. Projected CIGS Capacity, 2009–2012, Base Case
Figure 7-21: Producible CIGS Modules: Base Case vs. “Slow CIGS Ramp” Case
Figure 7-22: 2012 Supply-Demand Reconciliation—Base Case vs. “Slow CIGS Ramp” Cases
Figure 7-23: Equilibrium ASP—Base Case vs. “Slow CIGS Ramp” Case
Figure 7-24: Equilibrium Demand—Base Case vs. “Slow CIGS Ramp” Case
Figure 7-25: Crystalline Silicon Supply at/below Equilibrium, Base Case vs. “Slow CIGS Ramp” Case
Figure 7-26: Tier 1 (Better Than 15 Percent Below Equilibrium) Supply—”Slow CIGS Ramp” Case
Figure 7-27: Base Case vs. “Slow CIGS Ramp” Case Results
Figure 7-28: Equilibrium Supply Sensitivity to Market Clearing Price, Base Case, 2009
Figure 7-29: Market-Clearing Price Sensitivity to Demand Curve, 2009 Base Case
Figure 7-30: Market-Clearing Price Sensitivity to Demand Curve, 2010 Base Case
Figure 7-31: Market Clearing ASPs and Annual PV Demand, 1993–2012
Figure 7-32: Price Elasticity of Demand, 1994–2012
Figure 7-33: Equity IRRs of 1-MW Thin-Film Rooftop With Third Party and Utility Financing Structures Compared with 50-MW c-Si 1-Axis and 50-MW Thin-Film Fixed Mount in California, 2009–2012
Figure 7-34: Equity IRRs of 1-MW Thin-Film Rooftop Without PBI, 50-MW c-Si 1-Axis, and 50-MW Thin- Film Fixed Mount with Utility Financing Structure in California, 2009–2012
Figure 7-35: Impact of ITC on LCOE for a 50-MW c-Si 1-Axis and 50-MW Thin-Film Fixed Mount in California, 2008–2012
Figure 7-36: Impact of PBI and ITC on LCOE for a 1-MW Thin-Film Rooftop in California, 2008–2012
Figure 7-37: Impact of EPBB and ITC on LCOE for a 4 kW c-Si Rooftop in California, 2008–2012
Figure 7-38: LCOE and Installed Cost for a 50-MW c-Si 1-Axis, 50-MW c-Si Fixed Mount, and 50-MW Thin-Film Fixed Mount in California, 2008–2012 Figure 7-39: LCOE for a 50-MW c-Si 1-Axis and 50-MW Thin-Film Fixed Mount Compared with California Wholesale Power Price, 2008–2012
Figure 7-40: LCOE for 1-MW Thin-Film Rooftop Compared with SCE Standard Offer Contract Price and SCE Real Average Commercial Electricity Rate, 2008–2012

Figure 8-1: Total Electricity Generation by Source in the United States, 2007
Figure 8-2: Global Insolation in the United States
Figure 8-3: Annual and Cumulative PV Demand in the United States, 2000–2008
Figure 8-4: Annual and Cumulative PV Demand in the United States, 2000 – 2012
Figure 8-5: Solar Electricity Generation in the United States, 2000–2008
Figure 8-6: Annual and Cumulative PV Demand in the United States, 2000 – 2012
Figure 8-7: Annual and Cumulative PV Demand in California, 2000–2008
Figure 8-8: Annual and Cumulative PV Demand Outside of California, 2000–2008
Figure 8-9: Renewable Portfolio Standards in the United States
Figure 8-10: CSI Steps by Utility and Application as of January 20, 2009
Figure 8-11: EPBB Subsidies and Capacity Steps
Figure 8-12: EPBB Subsidies and Capacity Steps
Figure 8-13: PBI Subsidies and Capacity Steps
Figure 8-14: PBI Subsidies and Capacity Steps
Figure 8-15: Total Electricity Generation by Source in Germany, 2006 (GWh)
Figure 8-16: Global Insolation in Germany
Figure 8-17: Solar Electricity Generation in Germany, 2000–2007
Figure 8-18: Annual and Cumulative PV Demand in Germany, 2000 – 2012
Figure 8-19 Annual and Cumulative PV Demand in Germany, 2000 – 2012
Figure 8-20: Feed-In Tariff Rates in Germany, 2007–2014 (€/kWh)
Figure 8-21: Feed-In Tariff and Inflation-Adjusted Electricity Rates in Germany, 2007–2014
Figure 8-22: Total Electricity Generation by Source in Spain, 2007 (GWh)
Figure 8-23: Global Insolation in Spain
Figure 8-24: Annual and Cumulative PV Demand in Spain, 2000 – 2012
Figure 8-25: Annual and Cumulative PV Demand in Spain, 2000 – 2012
Figure 8-26: Solar Electricity Generation in Spain, 2000–2007
Figure 8-27: Feed-In Tariffs Under Royal Decree 661/2007
Figure 8-28: Feed-In Tariffs and Capacity Caps Under Royal Decree 1578/2008 for Ground Mount Systems in Spain
Figure 8-29: Feed-In Tariffs and Capacity Caps under Royal Decree 1578/2008 for Small Rooftop Systems in Spain
Figure 8-30: Feed-In Tariffs and Capacity Caps under Royal Decree 1578/2008 for Medium Rooftop Systems in Spain
Figure 8-31: Feed-In Tariff Digressions in Spain, 2009–2010
Figure 8-32: Total Electricity Generation by Source in Italy, 2006
Figure 8-33: Global Insolation in Italy
Figure 8-34: Annual and Cumulative PV Demand in Italy, 2002 – 2012
Figure 8-35:Annual and Cumulative PV Demand in Italy, 2002 – 2012
Figure 8-36: Feed-in Tariff Rates for BIPV Systems in Italy, 2007 - 2014
Figure 8-37: Feed-in Tariff Rates for Rooftop Systems in Italy, 2007 - 2014
Figure 8-38: Feed-in Tariff Rates for Ground Mount Systems in Italy, 2007 - 2014
Figure 8-39: Feed-In Tariff Rates for BIPV Systems in Italy, 2007–2014
Figure 8-40: Feed-In Tariff Rates for Rooftop Systems in Italy, 2007–2014
Figure 8-41: Feed-In Tariff Rates for Ground Mount Systems in Italy, 2007–2014
Figure 8-42: Total Electricity Generation by Source in France, 2006
Figure 8-43: Global Insolation in France
Figure 8-44: Annual and Cumulative PV Demand in France, 2000 – 2012
Figure 8-45: Annual and Cumulative PV Demand in France, 2000 – 2012
Figure 8-46: Feed-in Tariffs in France, 2006 -2014
Figure 8-47 Feed-in Tariffs in France, 2006 -2014
Figure 8-48: Total Electricity Generation by Source in Greece, 2006
Figure 8-49: Global Insolation in Greece
Figure 8-50: Annual and Cumulative PV Demand in Greece, 2006 – 2012
Figure 8-51: Annual and Cumulative PV Demand in Greece, 2006 – 2012
Figure 8-52: Greece’s New Feed-In Tariff Schedule, 2009–2014
Figure 8-53: Greece’s New Feed-In Tariff Schedule, 2009–2014
Figure 8-54: Global Insolation in Portugal
Figure 8-55: The 11 MW Serpa PV Project in Alentejo, Portugal
Figure 8-56: Global Insolation in the Czech Republic
Figure 8-57: A 40 kW Rooftop System at Masaryk University in Brno, Czech Republic
Figure 8-58: Global Insolation in the Netherlands
Figure 8-59: Part of the 2.3 MW PV Roof at the Floriade Exhibition Hall in Haarlemmermeer, Netherlands
Figure 8-60: Total Electricity Generation by Source in Japan, 2006
Figure 8-61: Global Insolation in Japan
Figure 8-62: Annual and Cumulative PV Demand in Japan, 2000 – 2012
Figure 8-63: Annual and Cumulative PV Demand in Japan, 2000 – 2012
Figure 8-64: Japan’s Residential Support Program, 2001–2005
Figure 8-65: Total Electricity Generation by Source in South Korea, 2006
Figure 8-66: Global Insolation in South Korea
Figure 8-67: Annual and Cumulative PV Demand in South Korea, 2005 – 2012
Figure 8-68: Annual and Cumulative PV Demand in South Korea, 2005 – 2012
Figure 8-69: Feed-In Tariff Levels in South Korea, 2006–2014
Figure 8-70: Feed-In Tariff Levels in South Korea, 2006–2014
Figure 8-71: Total Electricity Generation by Source in Australia, 2006
Figure 8-72: Global Insolation in Australia
Figure 8-73: Annual and Cumulative PV Demand in Australia, 2000 – 2012
Figure 8-74: Annual and Cumulative PV Demand in Australia, 2000 – 2012
Figure 8-75: Feed-In Tariff Levels in China, 2006–2014
Figure 8-76: Annual and Cumulative PV Demand in China, 2000 – 2012
Figure 8-77: Annual and Cumulative PV Demand in China, 2000 – 2012
Figure 8-78: India’s Feed-In Tariff Schedule, 2008–2014
Figure 8-79: Annual and Cumulative PV Demand in India, 2000–2012
Figure 8-80: Annual and Cumulative PV Demand in India, 2000–2012
Figure 8-81: A PV Module Competition at Masdar City, Abu Dhabi


Author Daniel Englander: Daniel Englander’s research focuses on finance and investment in renewable energy technologies with a specific emphasis on the utility and power generation sector. Before joining Greentech Media, Daniel worked for the Supreme Court & Appellate Practice Group at Mayer Brown LLP in Washington, D.C. Daniel received his Bachelor’s in International and Comparative Policy Studies from Reed College in 2005. He is currently writing his master’s thesis in Environmental Management at Harvard University on the hedging value of renewable energy in the power sector. Daniel is also the Assistant Editor of PVNews. Shyam Mehta: Shyam Mehta is a Senior Analyst at Greentech Media, focusing on global solar markets. Before joining Greentech Media, Shyam was a Financial Analyst at Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research where he covered equities in the alternative energy sector, primarily solar companies. Prior to Goldman, Shyam was a Research Analyst at The Brattle Group, an economic consulting firm, where his work focused on problems within the electricity industry. Shyam received his Bachelor’s in Mathematics from U.C. Berkeley. He is the primary author of the recently published PV Technologies, Production and Costs, 2009 Forecast. Travis Bradford: Travis founded the Prometheus Institute in 2003. Prior to founding the Prometheus Institute, Travis was a partner at Steel Partners II, L.P., a hedge fund based in New York investing in publicly traded and privately owned businesses. In this capacity, Travis served as a board member and active management participant in businesses ranging from industrial filters to fertilizer distributors. Travis is the author of Solar Revolution: The Economic Transformation of the Global Energy Industry (MIT, 2006). He has worked for the Federal Reserve Bank, has lectured at top universities including Columbia University, Duke University, and New York University on finance and entrepreneurship, and is co-author of a paper in the Journal of Applied Corporate Finance entitled “Private Equity: Source


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