Malaysia Insurance Report Q1 2009
Business Monitor International, March 2009, Pages: 93
Malaysia Insurance Report provides independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Malaysia's insurance industry.
We have revised down our 2009 growth forecast for Malaysia from 3.1% to 1.4% after the latest industrial production data revealed that factory output contracted at its fastest pace in seven years in November. Moreover, with the global economy unlikely to pick up until the first half of 2010, we have also revised down our 2010 growth forecast from 4.6% to 3.2%.
This is very bad news for Malaysia. The economy’s vulnerability to external dynamics was underlined by GDP data for Q308, which revealed that economic growth slowed from 6.7% y-o-y in Q208 to 4.7%. This marked a three-year low, but perhaps most worrying is the fact that it was only two quarters earlier that real GDP growth came in at a three-and-a-half year high of 7.4%.
Since the last quarter, we have made two major changes to the data in this report. First, we have – to the greatest extent possible – incorporated hard figures that have been made available by the regulator(s) and trade association(s) in each country. In some cases, therefore, we have begun to include numbers that pertain to the development of the insurance sector through the early stages of the global financial crisis. Second, we have extended our forecasts out to 2013. In all cases, we have reviewed the key growth drivers – non-life penetration and life density – that we had incorporated in our forecasts.
The global financial crisis is likely to affect the various segments of the global insurance industry in different ways. In many countries – especially in Europe – the coming recession points to softness in the non-life segment. In many cases, the numbers of policies may fall; there should be downwards pressure on premiums. By contrast, the main problem for the life segment – in almost all countries – is the extreme volatility of financial markets. Over the longer-term though, the fortunes of life insurance will recover – thanks to the secular growth of organised savings in most countries. China, where the larger insurance companies continue to achieve double digit growth in premium income, is a good example of this. Some particular niches should also do well in the current environment, such as legal liability insurance. In the Asia Pacific, we profile 23 companies. These are AEGON, AIG, Allianz, Aviva, AXA, Cardif, Fortis, Generali, Groupama, HDI-Gerling, HSBC Insurance, ING Group, Liberty Mutual, Manulife, MetLife, Prudential Financial, Prudential plc, QBE, RSA, Sun Life Financial, The Hartford, Principal Financial Group and Zurich Financial Services.
We also look at various local firms that are active in the region; some of these companies rank, in terms of the premiums that they write, among the largest in the world.
We estimate that, over the course of 2008, total premiums in Malaysia rose by 10% to MYR36,354mn. Non-life premiums rose by 5% to MYR12,623, while life premiums rose by 14% to MYR23,732mn. Between now and the end of the forecast period, we expect that annual non-life premiums will grow by MYR4,455 million, while annual life premiums should increase by MYR10,753 million. Growth in nonlife premiums should be driven by the general growth in nominal GDP plus a rise in non-life penetration from the current level of 1.73% to 2.00%. Growth in life premiums should be driven by the change in the overall population and a rise in life density from US$233.30 to US$420.00 per capita.
Insurance Business Environment Rating is 64.6.
The Sector At A Glance
Table: Overview Of Malaysia’s Insurance Sector
Key Insights On Malaysia’s Insurance Sector
Malaysia Industry SWOT
Malaysia Political SWOT
Malaysia Economic SWOT
Malaysia Business Environment SWOT
Development Of BMI’s Insurance Reports
Comment – The Global Financial Crisis
Table: Selected European Countries’ Estimated Budget And Current Account, 2008 (as % of GDP)
Revision Of Data And Forecasts
Projections and Forecasts
Table: Premiums – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2006-2013
Projections And Drivers Of Growth
Table: Growth Drivers, 2006-2013
Country Update
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Malaysia - Economic Activity
Political Outlook
Insurance Business Environment Rating
Table: Malaysia – Insurance Business Environment Indicators
Table: Asia Insurance Business Environment Rankings
Regional Context
Table: Non-Life Premiums In A Regional Context, 2008
Table: Life Premiums In A Regional Context, 2008
Table: Comparison Of Major Lines As % Of Non-Life Premiums, 2006
Analysis of Competitive Conditions
Regional Overview
Malaysia – Non-Life Segment
Malaysia – Life Segment
Company Profiles
AEGON
AIG
Allianz
Aviva
AXA
Cardif
Fortis
Generali
Groupama
HDI-Gerling
HSBC Insurance
ING
Liberty Mutual
Manulife
MetLife
Prudential Financial
Prudential Plc
QBE
RSA
Sun Life Financial
The Hartford
The Principal
Zurich
Country Snapshot: Malaysia Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2000-2003
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012
Methodology
Basis Of Projections
Insurance Business Environment Rating
Table: Insurance Business Environment Indicators And Rationale
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
- AEGON
- AIG
- Allianz
- Aviva
- AXA
- Cardif
- Fortis
- Generali
- Groupama
- HDI-Gerling
- HSBC Insurance
- ING
- Liberty Mutual
- Manulife
- MetLife
- Prudential Financial
- Prudential Plc
- QBE
- RSA
- Sun Life Financial
- The Hartford
- The Principal
- Zurich
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