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Hong Kong Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q2 2009
Business Monitor International, April 2009, Pages: 74
Hong Kong Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Hong Kong's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
In BMI’s Asia Pacific Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Business Environment Ranking table for Q209, Hong Kong’s pharmaceutical market is found in an improved fifth place, out of the 15 key markets in the Asia Pacific region. The country’s main disadvantages include its small population and a relative maturity of its pharmaceutical market, although the latter will likely result in Hong Kong being overtaken in the course of the next five years by larger, emerging regional markets, such as India. Nevertheless, through to 2013, the pharmaceutical market of Hong Kong is expected to grow at a steady compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.77% in local currency terms. This growth rate will put the 2013 value of the market at HKD9.24bn (US$1.185bn) at consumer prices, up from HKD7.32bn (US$0.939bn) in 2008.
Key drivers of pharmaceutical growth will remain the preference for branded drugs, a strong healthcare system, comprising both public and private provision, and a highly urbanised and ageing population, increasingly suffering from chronic and long-term diseases. In fact, by 2031, the portion of people older than 65 is expected to top 24% of the total population, up from around 12% at present. On the negative side, the pricing and reimbursement environment can be slightly erratic, although Hong Kong’s political situation and its relationship with mainland China will continue to pose relatively few problems to investment.
In the meantime, Hong Kong's economy looks set to be impacted by global financial crisis more violently than initially anticipated. In particular, the services sector, which had held up relatively well in Q308, is expected to show sharp declines in the coming quarters as demand for trade and finance-related services falter. We have further lowered our forecast for GDP growth in 2009 to -3.6%, following a 2.5% contraction in 2008, and anticipate a mild recovery in 2010. Moreover, the recently unveiled budget, which envisages higher funding for medical services over the next three years, may be not be aggressive enough in the current economic downturn. Despite an increase in funding, healthcare services may find themselves stretched by the influx of new users of public hospitals, who can no longer afford private insurance.
A second phase of public consultation on the matter of healthcare reform took place in February 2009, with the public generally supportive of the proposals that include the development of primary care, and the encouragement of the public-private partnerships under the 'money follows patient' concept. However, no consensus was achieved on the preferable option to finance the changes, with speculations rife that a combination of social and mandatory health insurance and out-of-pocket payments will be adopted. In fact, according to the Food and Health Bureau, private sector's contribution to spending will drop from 44.3% in 2004 to 40.8% in 2033, although as the Hospital Authority (HA) is already running a high deficit, questions can be raised over its longer-term viability if its operating premises remain unchanged.
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