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Croatia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q2 2009


Description: Croatia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Croatia's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.

In the BMI Business Environment Rating matrix for Q209, Croatia is once again in 15th position out of the 20 main markets surveyed in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). The market was valued at around US$980mn in 2008, somewhat below neighbouring Serbia, which it now also trails in the CEE matrix. By 2013, consumer spending on pharmaceuticals in Croatia is expected to reach US$1.27bn, growing at a modest compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.99% in local currency terms, constrained by the need to eliminate massive healthcare debts, small population numbers, the dominance of generics and the increase in self-financing of medical and pharmaceutical expenses. On the other hand, trading and regulatory regimes should be facilitated by the steady progress towards EU membership, which is likely to be achieved in 2011 or 2012 at the earliest.

In fact, in order to rein in spending, Croatia recently enacted a series of reforms that aim to introduce greater efficiencies, restrict spending over the medium term, find alternative sources of spending and demonopolise the country’s health insurance sector. The ministry is seeking to increase individual institutions’ accountability for finances, which will be achieved through the recent introduction of the 20% co-insurance fees for medical services in both primary and hospital care. On the other hand, the government is offering a supplementary insurance scheme which would cover all fees for services, in a bid to release pressure on the state insurer. However, BMI notes the introduction of a co-insurance scheme provides significant political risk, given the high number of low-income population and the tradition of socialist-type economy prior to 1991.

On an economic front, with EU membership still on the cards and convergence gains still to be realised, we maintain a positive long-term view for the Croatian economy. Supported by continued market reform and a well-diversified economy, we forecast average annual growth of 3.6% over the course of 2009-2013, twice the rate of the eurozone. We caution, however, that delayed EU membership or a more protracted and severe recession in 2009 may weigh on Croatia's long-term economic prospects, which will have a significant impact on both state and individual finances available for healthcare and pharmaceutical services.

In the meantime, the domestic drug industry will continue to meet around a third of local demand in terms of value and up to a half in terms of volume, although the dominant Croatian drugmaker Pliva has been in the hand of a major international player – namely US-based Barr – since 2006. The second-largest - but considerably smaller player than Pliva - local drugmaker is Belupo, which continues to expand its range of over-the-counter (OTC) medicines. To this end, in January 2009, Belupo launched its herbal antidepressant Aktivin-H 60 in a new package. The Croatian OTC market is expected to increase its share in the total market from some 21.9% in 2008 to around 23.6% in 2013, reaching the value of US$300mn at consumer prices, which clearly represents a commercial opportunity for Belupo.


Contents: Executive Summary
Croatia Pharmaceuticals Industry SWOT
Croatia Political SWOT
Croatia Economic SWOT
Croatia Business Environment SWOT

Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings
Table: Regional Pharma Business Environment Ratings
Limits Of Potential Returns
Risks To Realisation Of Returns

Croatia – Market Summary

Regulatory Regime
Table: Croatian Product Approvals, 2006
Intellectual Property Regime
Pricing Regime
Reimbursement Regime
Recent Pricing And Reimbursement Developments
Table: Recently Approved Medicines In Croatia

Industry Trends And Developments
Epidemiology
Table: Leading Causes Of Death In Croatia, 2005
Healthcare Provision
Healthcare Expenditure
Healthcare Debts
Healthcare Reform
Domestic Pharmaceutical Industry
Domestic Company Activity
Foreign Company Activity
Table: Lukaps’ Time Line
Pharmaceutical Retail
Research And Development Sector
Clinical Trials
Medical Devices

Industry Forecast Scenario
Overall Market Forecast
Table: Croatia – Drug Expenditure Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts
Key Growth Factors – Industry
Table: Croatia – Health Expenditure Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts
Key Growth Factors – Macroeconomic
Table: Croatia - Economic Activity
Prescription Market Forecast
Table: Croatia – Prescription Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts (HRKmn unless otherwise stated)
Patented Market Forecast
Table: Croatia – Patented Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts
Generics Market Forecast
Table: Croatia – Generics Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts
OTC Market Forecast
Table: Croatia – OTC Market Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts (HRKmn unless otherwise stated)
Export/Import Forecasts
Table: Croatia – Pharmaceutical Trade Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts (US$mn)
Other Healthcare Forecasts
Table: Croatia – Other Healthcare Indicators, Historical Data and Forecasts
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario

Competitive Landscape

Company Monitor
International Company Profiles
GlaxoSmithKline
Pfizer
Sanofi-Aventis
Novartis
Merck & Co
Krka
Indigenous Company Profiles
Pliva
Belupo

Country Snapshot: Croatia Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2000-2003
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 1999-2004
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2010 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2010

BMI Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts
Pharmaceutical Business Environment Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators
Weighting
Table: Weighting Of Components
Sources


Companies Mentioned - GlaxoSmithKline - Pfizer - Sanofi-Aventis - Novartis - Merck & Co - Krka - Pliva - Belupo


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