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Croatia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q2 2009
Business Monitor International, April 2009, Pages: 72
Croatia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Croatia's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
In the BMI Business Environment Rating matrix for Q209, Croatia is once again in 15th position out of the 20 main markets surveyed in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). The market was valued at around US$980mn in 2008, somewhat below neighbouring Serbia, which it now also trails in the CEE matrix. By 2013, consumer spending on pharmaceuticals in Croatia is expected to reach US$1.27bn, growing at a modest compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.99% in local currency terms, constrained by the need to eliminate massive healthcare debts, small population numbers, the dominance of generics and the increase in self-financing of medical and pharmaceutical expenses. On the other hand, trading and regulatory regimes should be facilitated by the steady progress towards EU membership, which is likely to be achieved in 2011 or 2012 at the earliest.
In fact, in order to rein in spending, Croatia recently enacted a series of reforms that aim to introduce greater efficiencies, restrict spending over the medium term, find alternative sources of spending and demonopolise the country’s health insurance sector. The ministry is seeking to increase individual institutions’ accountability for finances, which will be achieved through the recent introduction of the 20% co-insurance fees for medical services in both primary and hospital care. On the other hand, the government is offering a supplementary insurance scheme which would cover all fees for services, in a bid to release pressure on the state insurer. However, BMI notes the introduction of a co-insurance scheme provides significant political risk, given the high number of low-income population and the tradition of socialist-type economy prior to 1991.
On an economic front, with EU membership still on the cards and convergence gains still to be realised, we maintain a positive long-term view for the Croatian economy. Supported by continued market reform and a well-diversified economy, we forecast average annual growth of 3.6% over the course of 2009-2013, twice the rate of the eurozone. We caution, however, that delayed EU membership or a more protracted and severe recession in 2009 may weigh on Croatia's long-term economic prospects, which will have a significant impact on both state and individual finances available for healthcare and pharmaceutical services.
In the meantime, the domestic drug industry will continue to meet around a third of local demand in terms of value and up to a half in terms of volume, although the dominant Croatian drugmaker Pliva has been in the hand of a major international player – namely US-based Barr – since 2006. The second-largest - but considerably smaller player than Pliva - local drugmaker is Belupo, which continues to expand its range of over-the-counter (OTC) medicines. To this end, in January 2009, Belupo launched its herbal antidepressant Aktivin-H 60 in a new package. The Croatian OTC market is expected to increase its share in the total market from some 21.9% in 2008 to around 23.6% in 2013, reaching the value of US$300mn at consumer prices, which clearly represents a commercial opportunity for Belupo.
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