Contents:

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Datamonitor insight into the current and future blockbuster market 15 out of the 44 current blockbusters will have lost US patent protection before the end of 2002, affecting approximately $30bn of revenues. Companies will have to rethink their current portfolio and growth strategies to replace lost growth drivers Arthritis, respiratory disorders and cancer are the new blockbuster breeding grounds. Companies must refocus their R&D activities to exploit opportunities outside their current areas of expertise Lifecycle management strategies are not being fully optimized to boost the long term prescription volumes of blockbuster drugs Overall blockbuster revenue growth is declining. Companies must reduce their dependence on business models that rely heavily on blockbuster revenues if they are to meet investors’ double-digit growth expectations Personalized genomic-based therapies will eventually change the definition of a blockbuster and require a shift of R&D and promotional investment away from individual drugs and towards specific disease franchises ARE BLOCKBUSTERS THE FUTURE? Why the reliance on blockbusters? Blockbusters on the market Analysis of historical blockbuster sales, 1994–2000 Analysis of forecasted blockbuster sales, 2001–2008 The changing trends in the blockbuster market until 2008 Company share of the blockbuster market Company analysis of the future blockbuster market The changing therapeutic focus of the blockbuster market The impact of rising costs and pharmacogenomics on the blockbuster market CREATING AND MAINTAINING A BLOCKBUSTER What makes a blockbuster? Lessons from past blockbusters Ideal launch situations that have contributed to blockbuster success Datamonitor’s framework for analyzing factors that impact on a blockbuster’s success Blockbuster Value Index Blockbuster Value Index is linearly proportional to blockbuster revenue Blockbuster success: clinical profile or sales and marketing strength? Companies that are maxmizing their blockbuster success Conclusion: Creating a blockbuster: Optimal launch strategies Datamonitor’s framework for analyzing blockbuster launch strategies The methodological context Predicting first year market share using SimScore The SimScore scoring system Launching a blockbuster Geographic focus for a blockbuster launch: Glucophage, Novolin and Norvasc Glucophage – a successful US blockbuster franchise Novolin – strong European and Japanese presence Norvasc – strong US and Japanese presence The positioning of a blockbuster at launch: Lipitor The impact of DTC on blockbuster success: Claritin The pre-launch awareness needed for blockbuster success: Viagra Maintaining a blockbuster: Optimal lifecycle management strategies How to remain competitve throughout the lifecycle: Cipro The effect of branding in blockbuster success: Prozac vs. Prilosec Remaining a blockbuster despite patent expiry: Adalat Datamonitor’s best practice recommendations for creating and maintaining blockbusters How to achieve blockbuster success in less mature disease markets How to achieve blockbuster success in more mature disease markets THE FUTURE BLOCKBUSTERS What changes are expected in the future blockbuster market? The emerging blockbusters: potential of currently marketed products until 2008 Therapeutic focus of the potential blockbusters Cardiovascular CNS Cancer Infectious diseases Respiratory Arthritis Gastrointestinal ulcers Diabetes Osteoporosis Thrombosis Others Conclusion The next generation of blockbusters: pipeline potential of 18 top tier pharmaceutical companies until 2008 Pipeline Productivity Index Pipeline Productivity Index is linearly proportional to R&D investment Companies that are maximizing their overall R&D investment for each compound in late stage development Companies that have the ability to produce future high quality late stage pipelines GlaxoSmithKline Pharmacia Wyeth Bristol-Myers Squibb Schering-Plough Eli Lilly Abbott Laboratories Pfizer AstraZeneca Roche Novartis Johnson & Johnson Merck & Co. Aventis Amgen Takeda Yamanouchi Sankyo Conclusion: the high earning products in top tier companies’ pipelines APPENDIX Introduction to Datamonitor Healthcare forecasting Current drug forecast methodology Methodology Market events Validation Pipeline drug forecast methodology Predicting initial market share Forecasting future growth Influencing factors Datamonitor Healthcare’s pharmaceutical strategy capabilities About 21st Century Insight About eHealthInsight Datamonitor’s strategic consulting expertise Key strategy team members