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2Q09 Canada Mobile Operator Forecast, 2008 - 2013
IE Market Research Corp., May 2009
Total wireless subscribers in Canada to reach 29.7 million in 2013 with Rogers Wireless taking 35.8% market share
Mobile Operator Forecast on Canada provides over 65 operational and financial metrics for Canada’s wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide six-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 4Q2013. Operators covered for Canada include: Bell Mobility, Rogers Wireless, Telus Mobility, and MTS. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers up to 65 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Stable subscriber growth continues in Canada's mobile operator space
+7.7% industry average subscriber growth in 4Q.2008
Rogers Wireless enjoys positive ARPU growth rates
+0.1% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 4Q.2008
Network Usage growth indicators have decreased
+1.1% industry-average growth in MOU/Sub in 4Q.2008
EBITDA growth in Canada slows down
+3.1% industry average EBITDA growth in 4Q.2008
So what is IEMR’s Forecast?
Total subscribers to reach 29.7 million in 2013
- According to our forecasting model, total subscribers in Canada will increase from 21.6 million in 2008 to 29.7 million in 2013.
- We expect that all operators will see their number of subscribers increase over the next five years.
- In terms of subscriber numbers, Rogers Wireless will maintain its lead over Telus Mobility, Bell, and MTS over the next five years.
Rogers Wireless will continue to lead Canada’s mobile operator space
- Our model predicts that Rogers Wireless will continue to lead Canada in market shares by subscribers.
- Given the latest quarter numbers, our model is predicting that Rogers Wireless's market share (by subscribers) will decline slightly from 36.8% in 2008 to 35.8% in 2013.
- Bell Mobility's share of total subscribers will also fall from 30.6% in 2008 to 29.5% in 2013.
- In contrast, we predict that market share at Telus Mobility will increase slightly from its current 28.4% in 2008 to 29.2% in 2013.
- We expect that MTS will continue to have a subscriber market share of approximately 2.2% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
The overall ARPU level expected to decrease over the next several years
- Our model predicts that the industry will see an overall decrease in operator ARPUs over the next five years.
- Rogers Wireless will continue to enjoy the highest level of ARPUs in Canada with its average ARPU level changing from C$ 63.68 in 2008 to C$ 63.86 in 2013.
- In comparison, our model forecasts that average ARPU levels at Bell Mobility, Telus Mobility and MTS will decline to C$ 51.82, C$ 55.97, and C$ 54.25 respectively in 2013.
Profitability at Rogers Wireless and Telus Mobility will deteriorate over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013
- We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will be 40.6% in 2013, down from 43.0% in 2008.
- Our forecasting model predicts that Rogers Wireless will see its EBITDA margin fall from 44.3% to 41.4% while Telus Mobility's EBITDA margin fall from 43.0% to 37.3% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
- In contrast, we expect that Bell Mobility's EBITDA margin will improve from 39.6% in 2008 to 40.8% in 2013.
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