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Hard Copy
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Electronic (Excel)
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Enterprisewide
2Q09 France Mobile Operator Forecast, 2008 – 2013
IE Market Research Corp, May 2009
Total mobile subscribers in France to reach 61.8 million in 2013 with total revenue in the market exceeding €27.1 billion
Mobile Operator Forecast on France provides over 65 operational and financial metrics for France’s wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide six-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 4Q2013. Operators covered for France include: Orange, SFR (Vodafone), Bouygues, Orange’s MVNOs, and SFR’s MVNOs. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers up to 65 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Subscriber growth is slowing down in France
+4.6% industry average subscriber growth in 4Q.2008
ARPU level is declining in France
-1.1% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 4Q.2008
Minutes of Use per Subscriber stabilizing at slightly below 250 minutes per month
-1.2% industry-wide average MOU/Sub growth (YoY) in 4Q.2008
Stong EBITDA growth at SFR (Vodafone) and Bouygues
Industry average EBITDA growth was +9.0% in 4Q.2008
So what is our forecast?
Total subscriber accounts in France to reach 61.8 million in 2013
- We forecast that total subscriber accounts in France will increase from 57.4 million in 2008 to 61.8 million in 2013.
- We expect that Orange's subscriber base will decline from 25.9 million in 2009 to 25.7 million in 2013.
- For the other operators, subscriber numbers will increase over the next several years. Our forecasting model predicts that numbers of subscribers at SFR, and Bouygues will be 20.8 million and 10.2 million respectively in 2013.
- In addition, we forecast that Orange’s MVNOs will have 2.9 million subscribers and SFR’s MVNOs will have 2.0 million subscribers by the end of 2013.
Major operators will lose their subscriber market shares to MVNOs over the next five years
- We expect that MVNOs will see their market shares increase over the next several years. We forecast that Orange's MVNOs will take 4.8% of the market while SFR's MVNOs take 3.3% of the market (in terms of subscribers) by the end of 2013.
- As a result, we think that the market share of Orange (excluding its MVNOs) will go down from 43.9% in 2008 to 41.6% in 2013, and that of SFR (excluding its MVNOs) will go down from 34.2% in 2008 to 33.7% in 2013.
ARPU levels will continue declining in France from 2009 to 2013
- Our model forecasts that Orange's ARPU will decline from €33.19 in 2008 to €31.39 in 2013.
- ARPU at SFR (Vodafone) will also fall from €36.04 in 2008 to €33.01 in 2013.
- Bouygues's ARPU level remains higher than those of Orange and SFR, but it will still decline from €41.31 in 2008 to €40.63 in 2013.
Profitability will decrease across operators in France
- We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will decline from 36.1% in 2008 to 33% in 2013.
- Our model predicts that Orange's EBITDA margin will fall from 37.3% to 35.7% and SFR's (Vodafone) margin will fall from 38.9% to 34.1% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
- Bouygues will also deteriorate from 28.5% in 2008 to 25.7% in 2013.
Charts 1-68 Results & Forecasts for: CY 2001-CY 2013
Chart 1: PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS
Chart 2: SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)
Chart 3: SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 4: SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 5: NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 6: NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
Chart 7: MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR
Chart 8: POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 9: POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 10: PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 11: PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR
Chart 12: POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 13: PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 14: POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 15: POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 16: PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 17: PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
Chart 18: GROSS ADDITIONS BY OPERATOR
Chart 19: GROSS ADDITIONS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 20: MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR
Chart 21: MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
Chart 22: DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR
Chart 23: MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR
Chart 24: DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 25: MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR
Chart 26: VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 27: VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR
Chart 28: VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 29: MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH)
Chart 30: MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
Chart 31: AGGREGATE MOU BY OPERATOR
Chart 32: AGGREGATE MOU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
Chart 33: SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 34: HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE
Chart 35: SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 36: SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 37: SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 38: SHARE OF GROSS ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 39: SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
Chart 40: HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE
Chart 41: YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR
Chart 42: REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
Chart 43: SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
Chart 44: EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
Chart 45: CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
Chart 46: SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 47: EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 48: EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
Chart 49: EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
Chart 50: EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
Chart 51: CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
Chart 52: CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
Chart 53: (EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
Chart 54: EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR
Chart 55: REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 56: ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 57: DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 58: VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 59: SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 60: EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 61: CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 62: REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 63: ARPU BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 64: DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 65: VOICE REVENUE/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 66: SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 67: EBITDA BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 68: CAPEX BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Charts 69-136 Quarterly Results for: Mar 2003 - Dec 2013
Chart 69: PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS
Chart 70: SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)
Chart 71: SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 72: SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 73: NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 74: NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
Chart 75: MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR
Chart 76: POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 77: POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 78: PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 79: PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR
Chart 80: POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 81: PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 82: POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 83: POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 84: PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 85: PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
Chart 86: GROSS ADDITIONS BY OPERATOR
Chart 87: GROSS ADDITIONS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 88: MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR
Chart 89: MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
Chart 90: DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR
Chart 91: MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR
Chart 92: DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 93: MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR
Chart 94: VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 95: VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR
Chart 96: VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 97: MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH)
Chart 98: MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
Chart 99: AGGREGATE MOU BY OPERATOR
Chart 100: AGGREGATE MOU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
Chart 101: SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 102: HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE
Chart 103: SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 104: SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 105: SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 106: SHARE OF GROSS ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 107: SHARE SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
Chart 108: HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE
Chart 109: YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR
Chart 110: REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
Chart 111: SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
Chart 112: EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
Chart 113: CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
Chart 114: SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 115: EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 116: EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
Chart 117: EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
Chart 118: EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
Chart 119: CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
Chart 120: CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
Chart 121: (EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
Chart 122: EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR
Chart 123: REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 124: ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 125: DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 126: VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 127: SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 128: EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 129: CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 130: REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 131: ARPU BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 132: DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 133: VOICE REVENUE/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 134: SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 135: EBITDA BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 136: CAPEX BY OPERATOR (EUR)
-Orange
-SFR (Vodafone)
-Bouygues
-Orange’s MVNOs
-SFR’s MVNOs
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