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2Q09 Portugal Mobile Operator Forecast, 2008 – 2013


Description: Total wireless subscribers in Portugal to reach 16.4 million in 2013 with Optimus taking market share away from TMN and Telecel Vodafone over the next five years

Mobile Operator Forecast on Portugal provides over 65 operational and financial metrics for Portugal’s wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide six-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 4Q2013. Operators covered for Portugal include: TMN, Telecel Vodafone, and Optimus. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.

Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers up to 65 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.

Subscriber growth in the Netherlands remains positive
+7.2% industry average subscriber growth in 4Q.2008

ARPU levels continue to decline in the Netherlands
-3% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 4Q.2008

Minutes of Use per Subscriber decreasing slightly
The industry average MOU/Sub growth of -0.7% in 4Q.2008.

Strong EBITDA growth for Vodafone and Ben (T-Mobile)
+14.5% industry average EBITDA growth in 4Q.2008

So what is our forecast?

Total wireless subscriber accounts in the Netherlands to exceed 23 million in 2013

- We forecast that total wireless subscribers in the Netherlands will increase from 19.63 million in 2008 to 23.08 million in 2013.

- KPN Mobile will continue to be the largest mobile operator in the Netherlands and we forecast that its subscriber base will increase from 9.78 million in 2008 to 12.18 million in 2013.

- Ben (T-Mobile)'s subscribers will also increase from 5.31 million to 6.53 million over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.

- However, we expect that Vodafone will see its subscriber base decrease from 4.54 million in 2008 to 4.37 million in 2013.

Vodafone to lose its market share to KPN Mobile and Ben (T-Mobile) over the next five years

- Our model predicts that KPN Mobile will continue to lead the Netherlands in market shares; its share of subscribers will increase from 49.8% in 2008 to 52.8% in 2013.

- Also, we expect that Ben (T-Mobile) will see its market share increase slightly from 27% in 2008 to 28.3% in 2013.

- The market share gains at KPN Mobile and Ben (T-Mobile) will be at the expense of Vodafone; we forecast that Vodafone's market share will fall from 23.1% to 18.9% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.

Vodafone will continue to enjoy the highest ARPU level in the country despite market share loss

- Our forecasting model predicts that the industry average monthly ARPU level in the Netherlands will decline from €27.68 in 2008 to €25.63 in 2013.

- Vodafone will continue to receive the highest ARPU level in the country, and it will reach €39.08 in 2013.

- On the other hand, we expect that ARPU levels at KPN Mobile and Ben (T-Mobile) in 2013 will be €21.33 and €23.45 respectively.

Profitability at Ben (T-Mobile) will improve over the next several years

- We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will decline slightly from 32.1% in 2008 to 31.7% in 2013.

- Our model predicts that KPN Mobile will see its EBITD margin decrease from 39.9% in 2009 to 37.7% in 2013.

- EBITDA margins at Vodafone will fall slightly to 30.7% in 2013 from 31.6% in 2008.

- On the other hand, Ben's (T-Mobile) will see its EBIDTA margin increase to 24.3% in 4Q.2008 from 19.5% in 4Q.2007.


Contents: Charts 1-68 Results & Forecasts for: CY 2001-CY 2013
Chart 1: PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS
Chart 2: SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)
Chart 3: SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 4: SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 5: NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 6: NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
Chart 7: MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR *
Chart 8: POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 9: POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 10: PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 11: PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR
Chart 12: POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 13: PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 14: POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 15: POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 16: PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 17: PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
Chart 18: GROSS ADDITIONS BY OPERATOR
Chart 19: GROSS ADDITIONS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 20: MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR
Chart 21: MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
Chart 22: DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR
Chart 23: MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR
Chart 24: DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 25: MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR
Chart 26: VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 27: VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR
Chart 28: VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 29: MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH)
Chart 30: MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
Chart 31: AGGREGATE MOU BY OPERATOR
Chart 32: AGGREGATE MOU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
Chart 33: SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 34: HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE
Chart 35: SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 36: SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 37: SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 38: SHARE OF GROSS ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 39: SHARE OF SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
Chart 40: HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE
Chart 41: YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR
Chart 42: REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
Chart 43: SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
Chart 44: EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
Chart 45: CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
Chart 46: SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 47: EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 48: EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
Chart 49: EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
Chart 50: EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
Chart 51: CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
Chart 52: CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
Chart 53: (EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
Chart 54: EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR
Chart 55: REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 56: ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 57: DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 58: VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 59: SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 60: EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 61: CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 62: REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 63: ARPU BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 64: DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 65: VOICE REVENUE/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 66: SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 67: EBITDA BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 68: CAPEX BY OPERATOR (EUR)

Charts 69-136 Quarterly Results for: Mar 2003 - Dec 2013
Chart 69: PREPAID AND POSTPAID SUBSCRIBERS
Chart 70: SUBSCRIBER GROWTH (YoY)
Chart 71: SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 72: SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 73: NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 74: NET SUBSCRIBER ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
Chart 75: MONTHLY CHURN BY OPERATOR *
Chart 76: POST-PAID SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 77: POST-PAID SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 78: PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 79: PREPAID/WHOLESALE SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR
Chart 80: POST-PAID % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 81: PREPAID/WHOLESALE % OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 82: POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 83: POST-PAID ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 84: PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 85: PREPAID/WHOLESALE ADDS GROWTH BY OPERATOR
Chart 86: GROSS ADDITIONS BY OPERATOR
Chart 87: GROSS ADDITIONS GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 88: MONTHLY ARPU BY OPERATOR
Chart 89: MONTHLY ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
Chart 90: DATA % OF SERVICE REVENUES BY OPERATOR
Chart 91: MONTHLY DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR
Chart 92: DATA ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 93: MONTHLY VOICE ARPU BY OPERATOR
Chart 94: VOICE ARPU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 95: VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE BY OPERATOR
Chart 96: VOICE REVENUE PER MINUTE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 97: MOU PER SUBSCRIBER BY OPERATOR (MINUTES/MONTH)
Chart 98: MOU/SUBSCRIBER GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
Chart 99: AGGREGATE MOU BY OPERATOR
Chart 100: AGGREGATE MOU GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY %)
Chart 101: SHARE OF TOTAL SUBSCRIBERS BY OPERATOR
Chart 102: HHI INDEX BY SUBSCRIBER SHARE
Chart 103: SHARE OF NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 104: SHARE OF POST-PAID NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 105: SHARE OF PREPAID/WHOLESALE NET ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 106: SHARE OF GROSS ADDS BY OPERATOR
Chart 107: SHARE SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
Chart 108: HHI INDEX BY SERVICE REVENUE SHARE
Chart 109: YoY CHANGE IN REVENUE SHARE BY OPERATOR
Chart 110: REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
Chart 111: SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
Chart 112: EBITDA BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
Chart 113: CAPEX BY OPERATOR (REPORTING CURRENCY)
Chart 114: SERVICE REVENUE GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 115: EBITDA GROWTH BY OPERATOR (YoY)
Chart 116: EBITDA/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
Chart 117: EBITDA/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
Chart 118: EBITDA/INCREMENTAL SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
Chart 119: CAPEX/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
Chart 120: CAPEX/SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR
Chart 121: (EBITDA-CAPEX)/REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR
Chart 122: EBITDA MARGIN EXPANSION/CONTRACTION BY OPERATOR
Chart 123: REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 124: ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 125: DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 126: VOICE REV/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 127: SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 128: EBITDA BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 129: CAPEX BY OPERATOR (USD)
Chart 130: REPORTED REVENUE BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 131: ARPU BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 132: DATA ARPU BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 133: VOICE REVENUE/MINUTE BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 134: SERVICE REVENUE BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 135: EBITDA BY OPERATOR (EUR)
Chart 136: CAPEX BY OPERATOR (EUR)

* Available only for TMN and Telecel Vodafone


Companies Mentioned -TMN -Telecel Vodafone -Optimus


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