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2Q09 Portugal Mobile Operator Forecast, 2008 – 2013
IE Market Research Corp., June 2009
Total wireless subscribers in Portugal to reach 16.4 million in 2013 with Optimus taking market share away from TMN and Telecel Vodafone over the next five years
Mobile Operator Forecast on Portugal provides over 65 operational and financial metrics for Portugal’s wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide six-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 4Q2013. Operators covered for Portugal include: TMN, Telecel Vodafone, and Optimus. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers up to 65 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Subscriber growth in the Netherlands remains positive
+7.2% industry average subscriber growth in 4Q.2008
ARPU levels continue to decline in the Netherlands
-3% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 4Q.2008
Minutes of Use per Subscriber decreasing slightly
The industry average MOU/Sub growth of -0.7% in 4Q.2008.
Strong EBITDA growth for Vodafone and Ben (T-Mobile)
+14.5% industry average EBITDA growth in 4Q.2008
So what is our forecast?
Total wireless subscriber accounts in the Netherlands to exceed 23 million in 2013
- We forecast that total wireless subscribers in the Netherlands will increase from 19.63 million in 2008 to 23.08 million in 2013.
- KPN Mobile will continue to be the largest mobile operator in the Netherlands and we forecast that its subscriber base will increase from 9.78 million in 2008 to 12.18 million in 2013.
- Ben (T-Mobile)'s subscribers will also increase from 5.31 million to 6.53 million over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
- However, we expect that Vodafone will see its subscriber base decrease from 4.54 million in 2008 to 4.37 million in 2013.
Vodafone to lose its market share to KPN Mobile and Ben (T-Mobile) over the next five years
- Our model predicts that KPN Mobile will continue to lead the Netherlands in market shares; its share of subscribers will increase from 49.8% in 2008 to 52.8% in 2013.
- Also, we expect that Ben (T-Mobile) will see its market share increase slightly from 27% in 2008 to 28.3% in 2013.
- The market share gains at KPN Mobile and Ben (T-Mobile) will be at the expense of Vodafone; we forecast that Vodafone's market share will fall from 23.1% to 18.9% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
Vodafone will continue to enjoy the highest ARPU level in the country despite market share loss
- Our forecasting model predicts that the industry average monthly ARPU level in the Netherlands will decline from €27.68 in 2008 to €25.63 in 2013.
- Vodafone will continue to receive the highest ARPU level in the country, and it will reach €39.08 in 2013.
- On the other hand, we expect that ARPU levels at KPN Mobile and Ben (T-Mobile) in 2013 will be €21.33 and €23.45 respectively.
Profitability at Ben (T-Mobile) will improve over the next several years
- We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will decline slightly from 32.1% in 2008 to 31.7% in 2013.
- Our model predicts that KPN Mobile will see its EBITD margin decrease from 39.9% in 2009 to 37.7% in 2013.
- EBITDA margins at Vodafone will fall slightly to 30.7% in 2013 from 31.6% in 2008.
- On the other hand, Ben's (T-Mobile) will see its EBIDTA margin increase to 24.3% in 4Q.2008 from 19.5% in 4Q.2007.
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