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2Q09 Spain Mobile Operator Forecast, 2008 – 2013
IE Market Research Corp., June 2009
Total wireless subscribers in Spain to reach 57.5 million with Vodafone's market share dropping to 28% by the end of 2013
Mobile Operator Forecast on Spain provides over 65 operational and financial metrics for Spain’s wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide six-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 4Q2013. Operators covered for Spain include: Telefonica Moviles, Vodafone, Orange, and Xfera (Yoigo). Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers up to 65 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Wireless subscriber growth is slowing down in Spain
+4.6% industry average subscriber growth in 4Q.2008
ARPU levels continue decreasing in Spain
-8.7% operator-wide average growth in 4Q.2008
Minutes of Use per Subscriber decreasing
-3.1% industry average MOU/Sub growth in 4Q.2008
Positive EBITDA growth at Telefonica Moviles, Vodafone, and Orange
Industry average EBITDA growth was 11.4% in 4Q.2008
So what is our forecast?
Total wireless subscriber accounts in Spain to reach 57.5 million in 2013
- We forecast that total mobile subscribers in Spain will increase from 52.5 million in 2008 to 57.5 million in 2013.
- Telefonica Moviles will continue to be the largest operator in the country with its subscriber base increasing to 26.9 million in 2013.
- Vodafone will continue to be the second largest operator in the country, but we forecast that its subscriber accounts will decrease over the next several years from 16.5 million in 2008 to 16.1 million in 2013.
- Our model predicts that the numbers of subscribers at Orange and Xfera will be approximately 12.3 million and 2.15 million respectively by the end of 2013.
Vodafone will be losing market share to Telefonica Moviles and Xfera over the next several years
- Telefonica Moviles will continue to lead Spain in market shares. According to our forecasting model, its subscriber market share will increase from 45.0% in 2008 to 46.9% in 2013.
- In addition, we forecast that Xfera's market share will rise from 1.8% in 2008 to 3.7% in 2013.
- The market share gains at Telefonica Moviles and Xfera will come at the expense of Vodafone. We forecast that Vodafone's share will fall from 31.5% to 28.0% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
Monthly ARPUs will continue to decline from 2009 to 2013
- We expect that all of the four Spanish operators will see their ARPUs decrease over the next five years.
- According to our forecasting model, in 2013, Telefonica Moviles, Vodafone, and Orange will have monthly ARPUs of
€22.97, €28.44, and €23.07 respectively. Xfera's monthly ARPU will be even lower at €20.89 in 2013 (significantly down from €26.16 in 2008).
EBITDA margins to improve at Telefonica Moviles but to deteriorate at Vodafone
- We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will increase from 36.5% in 2008 to 38.4% in 2013, and Telefonica Moviles's EBITDA margin will be as high as 49.2% in 2013.
- Also, Xfera's EBITDA margin will improve significantly from -63.6% (the negative margin is caused by negative EBITDA) to 37.2% in 2013.
- However, our model predicts that Vodafone's EBITDA margin will deteriorate over the next five years from 34.9% in 2008 to 28.9% in 2013.
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