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The Expanding Osteoporosis Market: Potential of Current and New Drugs September 29, 2005
Decision Resources, Inc., Sep 2005, Pages: 16
The demand for drugs to treat osteoporosis will grow substantially during the next ten years. This growth will be driven by increasing market penetration facilitated by better diagnosis of the disease, the large aging population, and increasing treatment of male osteoporosis. A further stimulus to growth will be the availability of new agents.
In this report, we provide an overview of osteoporosis, including its etiology and its worldwide prevalence. We discuss marketed treatments for the disease and present an outline of the current market and major players. The report also identifies the most promising drugs in development for the treatment of osteoporosis, including agents in currently marketed drug classes and those representing novel approaches to osteoporosis treatment. Finally, we forecast sales of osteoporosis agents through 2009, identifying the drugs most likely to have a significant impact and discussing potential threats from generic agents.
Business Implications
- Osteoporosis is a major health problem, affecting nearly 50 million people. With a progressively aging population, improved diagnosis of the disease, and increased treatment of male osteoporosis, there will be sustained growth in the demand for therapeutics to treat osteoporosis.
- In 2004, combined sales of drugs to treat osteoporosis reached $6.2 billion in the seven major markets that we cover. Bisphosphonates are the leading drug class for the treatment of osteoporosis in all of these markets, but market shares of other drug classes vary widely. These differences are particularly apparent in Japan, where vitamin D therapy remains a common treatment.
- The three major players in the osteoporosis market are Merck & Co., Eli Lilly, and Procter & Gamble. With the bisphosphonate alendronate (Fosamax), Merck holds a 39% market share in the seven major markets. Lilly's 17% market share comes primarily from sales of the selective estrogen receptor modulator (SERM) raloxifene (Evista), and Procter & Gamble holds a 13% share of the market with sales of the bisphosphonate risedronate (Actonel).
- We anticipate that the osteoporosis market will grow at an annual rate of 5.3% from 2004 to 2009. We expect that bisphosphonates will remain the mainstay of osteoporosis treatment, with 6.9% annual sales growth through our study period, driven by the emergence of two new agents: Roche/GlaxoSmithKline's ibandronate (Boniva/Bonviva) and Novartis's zoledronate (Aclasta). SERMs will remain the drug class with the second-highest sales, and at least one new SERM, Wyeth's bazedoxifene, is likely to arrive on the market by the end of the forecast period. Novel agents will drive growth after 2009, and we anticipate that Amgen's recombinant product AMG-162 and the cathepsin K inhibitors, led by Novartis's balicatib, will gain significant market share.
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