This report includes:
- A review of Chinese total production and capacity changes for both crude steel and finished steel during the period 2001-2005;
- Surveys of Chinese 34 major steel mills, including 2005 production as well as 2005-2010 capacity forecasts for Pig Iron, Crude Steel, HR, CR, M-H Plate, GI and Coated.
Growell speaks to key managers in production, planning, sales and marketing in approximately 100 steel mills! Growells 50 market analysts compiled this report over a two-month period to bring you the most comprehensive capacity knowledge available.
We also factor into its analysis the Central Governments 11th Five-Year Plan, which advocates and will enact policies to eliminate inefficient capacity. This analysis is complimented by Growell’s own evaluation of actual capacity reductions by the industry on a yearly basis.
2 Nominal Capacity Forecast
2.1 Pig iron and Crude Steel Nominal Capacity Forecast
2.2 Hot-Rolled Nominal Capacity Forecast
2.3 Cold-Rolled Nominal Capacity Forecast
2.4 M-H Plate Nominal Capacity Forecast
2.5 GI Nominal Capacity Forecast
2.6 DeBar and Wire Rod Nominal Capacity Forecast
3 Real Capacity Forecast
3.1 Pig iron and Crude Steel Real Capacity Forecast
3.2 Hot-Rolled Real Capacity Forecast
3.3 Cold-Rolled Real Capacity Forecast
3.4 M-H Plate Real Capacity Forecast
3.5 GI Real Capacity Forecast
3.6 DeBar and Wire Rod Real Capacity Forecast
Domestic capacity of finished steel during 2000–2003 was well above that of crude steel. In 2004 and 2005, the rapid expansion of crude steel capacity resulted in a surplus. Consequently, crude steel suppliers had to export this excess slab & billet in order to balance crude steel and finished steel capacity in China.
Steel capacity in China will continue robust growth up to 2008 and total capacity could hit 600 million mt per annum earlier than it is expected. But, from 2006 to 2010, large capacity of pig iron and crude steel will be eliminated due to governmental control and oversupply pressure. And increasing exports will also be a key contributor to smoothing domestic supply in the next 2-3 years.
The growth of flat products’ capacity will be two or three times as much as that of long products during the 2005–2010 time period. Flat products’ proportion of total finished steel production will increase from 40% to 50%.
Zhanjiang, Baosteel with Shaoguan
Xinjingtang in Caofeidian, Shougang Group with Tangshan I/S
Fangchenggang, Wuhan I/S with Liuzhou I/S