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European Broadband Access Markets 2004 - Regional and Country Forecasts of Broadband Access Equipment and Service Markets Through 2010
Accuture Telecom Research, Aug 2004, Pages: 240
In Europe, a number of countries are embracing broadband access technologies at widely varying rates, evincing a high degree of diversity. In terms of the current rate of broadband penetration, we can distinguish between three distinct groups of countries: high (>30%), medium (>20% and <30%), and low (<20%).
In the “high” group, are the broadband leaders”, which have deployed broadband access networks at a feverish pace. In contrast to other nations in the region, the broadband leaders have made considerable progress in eliminating the so-called “broadband gap” in the local loop. Included in this group are Belgium, Denmark, France, Netherlands, Switzerland, and Iceland.
In the “middle” group are Austria, Germany, Luxembourg, the UK, Spain, and Sweden. Most of these countries will join the high group in several years due to their rapid progress in extending the reach of broadband.
The progress of the high and middle groups of countries, however, remains elusive in the remaining European countries, which comprise the “low” group. Found in this group are many Eastern European countries, which tend to have relatively low GDP, cable TV penetration, teledensity and market liberalization and competition. They are Croatia, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Romania, Russia, the Slovak Republic, and Slovenia. Of this group Estonia, which has a very high rate of Internet penetration and government policies supportive of broadband, is the clear leader.
Also included in the low group are Ireland, the Southern European countries of Italy, Portugal, and Greece; and the Scandinavian countries of Finland and Norway.
The diversity of Europe is further emphasized by differences in the number of broadband subscribers. The clear leader in terms of the number of broadband subscribers is France, followed by Germany, the UK, Italy, and Spain.
Europe’s broadband diversity is also reflected in variations in the technology mix of individual countries. In most countries DSL is the technology of choice, however, cable modem technology, as will be seen, plays a very important role in countries where cable TV penetration is relatively high. In France, for example, cable modem technology is particularly widespread, a stark contrast to Italy where cable TV networks are most rare and consequently cable modem technology is not utilized.
REPORT PARAMETERS
The differential patterns of broadband uptake achieved by the three aforementioned groups of European countries give rise to a number of questions:
-Has broadband subscribership reached its zenith in the so-called “high”countries?
-Will all of the high countries duplicate, or even overtake, France’s impressive rates of broadband penetration?
-Will all countries of the middle group catch up with the high countries? If so, how long will it take to close the gap?
-Will market opportunities for broadband equipment sales in the high countries gradually dry up as market saturation is reached?
-Will the major market opportunities for broadband equipment sales in the future lie within the second group of countries?
-What are the overall market opportunities for broadband equipment sales and broadband Internet access service in each of the twenty-nine European countries covered in this report?
The purpose of this report is to answer these and related questions with respect to the residential and small business segments in order to thoroughly understand the current and future status of broadband in Europe.
We do so comprehensively by analyzing the current adoption and by forecasting the future market penetration of five different broadband access technologies, DSL, cable modem, FWA (fixed wireless access), broadband satellite, and FTTX (fiber to the home and small business) within the context of 29 countries. In so doing, we size the broadband equipment and service markets in each of the major countries of Europe.
We perform this task with the use of historical, country-specific data for the 1999-2003 time period and statistical forecasting methodologies incorporated in a spreadsheet-based demand model. Utilizing this approach (which is explained further in Chapter 2), we produce regional and country-specific forecasts for:
-Total broadband subscribers (Chapter 4)
-Broadband subscribers by technology (Chapter 4)
-Broadband penetration rates by technology (Chapter 4)
-Broadband equipment forecasts in units sold (Chapter 5)
-Broadband equipment forecasts in sales revenue (Chapter 5)
-Broadband service revenue (Chapter 6)
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