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Airlines Market Report 2007
Key Note Publications Ltd, July 2007, Pages: 143
The revenue generated by UK airlines is estimated to have reached £16.74bn in 2006, a 9% increase on 2005. The number of passengers carried by UK airlines increased by 2.5% to 127.4 million in 2006, and the number of seat kilometres (km) used was up by 3.9% to 301.82 billion km.
Air passenger transport is undertaken on both scheduled and non-scheduled services. These represent the market's two main sectors. Scheduled services comprise the largest and fastest-growing sector: a result of the popularity of low-cost flights. By contrast, the number of passengers travelling on non-scheduled services fell again in 2006; in line with the trend for consumers to make their own travel arrangements and travel independently, rather than go on package or inclusive tours.
The non-scheduled airline sector is currently going through a period of consolidation. First Choice Holidays PLC — the owner of First Choice Airways Ltd — has announced plans to merge with TUI AG — which owns Thomsonfly. Furthermore, MyTravel Group PLC — the owner of MyTravel Airways Ltd — has recently merged with KarstadtQuelle AG, which owns Thomas Cook Airlines UK Ltd. The combined airlines that emerge from this activity are likely to dominate the charter airline sector in the UK for some years to come.
One of the most significant recent developments in the global airlines industry occurred in March 2007, when European transport ministers approved an open skies pact to liberalise the transatlantic airline market. The agreement means that any EU airline will be able to fly to any point in the US from anywhere within the EU, while any US carrier will be able to serve Heathrow and internal EU routes. The new agreement will take effect in April 2008, and will replace a number of bilateral open skies deals already signed between EU member states and the US. This includes the highly restrictive Bermuda Two agreement between Great Britain and the US, which allows only four airlines to fly transatlantic routes from Heathrow — British Airways (BA), Virgin, United Airlines and American Airlines.
We forecast that the number of passengers carried by UK airlines will continue to increase up to 2011. This growth is once again expected to come from the scheduled sector, which is likely to benefit from the extensive expansion plans of the budget airlines and the opportunities presented by the open skies agreement. Passenger numbers on non-scheduled flights are expected to slip further as consumers continue to favour independently arranged travel. The problems the airline industry is expected to encounter up to 2011 include: further increases in the price of oil; government taxation on air travel; higher airport charges; and the impact of environmental pressures on air travel policy.
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