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Europe Market Perspective / Vol. 7, Issue 19, September Edition
Pyramid Research, Inc., Sep 2007
In February 2007, Telesystems of Ukraine launched the first 3G offering in Ukraine based on CDMA EV-DO technology. CDMA was the first to bring 3G services to the stagnant Ukrainian telecom market, raising the question of whether CDMA would remain the leading 3G technology in the country, because even though the Ukrainian mobile market is dominated by GSM, UMTS licensing has been problematic. In December 2005, the government gave the only UMTS 3G license to fixed incumbent Ukrtelecom. The government claimed this was due to the lack of frequencies, although it seems that Ukrtelecom needed a 3G license for better privatization valuation. After several unsuccessful attempts to gain a UMTS license, MTS, one of the two largest mobile network operators (MNO), announced that it is rolling out a CDMA 450 network for mobile data use, signaling that CDMA is an option even for GSM operators. We believe that the government’s preferential treatment of Ukrtelecom and the denial of UMTS licenses to the largest mobile operators have given CDMA2000 a good chance to pioneer 3G and gain a small share of the booming Ukrainian mobile market.
ANALYSIS SUMMARY
-Albeit limited, demand for 3G services exists in Ukraine, and the largest mobile operators are willing to invest in it. However, the state allocated only one UMTS license in 2005 to Ukrtelecom — the fixed incumbent operator — which is not rushing to offer the service.
-The absence of UMTS 3G services opened the window of opportunity for CDMA, a long-established technology in Ukraine, until recently providing wireless local loop (WLL) services only. Telesystems of Ukraine launched CDMA EV-DO services in February 2007.
-Although GSM by far is the dominant technology in Ukraine, the pioneering launch of 3G CDMA suggests that it could become a strong alternative. There are three possible scenarios of how CDMA2000 and UMTS will evolve in Ukraine in the next five years. The most likely outcome is that CDMA will maintain a healthy share of the 3G market but that UMTS/HSDPA will gain leadership in three to five years.
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