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1Q08 Mobile Forecast: India, 2007 - 2010
IE Market Research Corp., Jan 2008
IEMR’s Mobile Forecast on India provides over 65 operational and financial metrics for the India wireless market. We cover quarterly historical data starting in 3Q2003 and ending in 3Q2007. We also provide four-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2010. Operators covered for India include: RCom, Hutchison, Bharti-Airtel, BSNL, and Others. Our Mobile Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
Notable highlights of the 1Q08 India Mobile Forecast include:
- During the 2007 - 2010 forecast period, we are now forecasting the subscriber base in India to increase by 128.8% (previously 102%). This makes India the fastest growing wireless market in the world.
- We are now forecasting that the number of subscribers will increase from our projected 230.3 million in 2007 to 526.8 million in 2010. In 2008, India will replace the United States as the second largest wireless market in the world after China.
- The four major operators in the country will continue to have similar market shares over the next several years. Bharti-Airtel, Reliance, Hutchison , and BSNL will continue to serve approximately 24%, 19%, 17% and 15% respectively of total subscribers in 2010.
- We are revising slightly downward our EBITDA margin predictions for India going forward. Average margins in the industry are now forecasted to be 40.8% in 2010 (down from 41.8% in our previous quarterly forecast). Given Bharti-Airtel’s subscriber base and branding and positioning strategies, we think that Bharti will continue to enjoy the highest reported EBITDA in India at 42.3% in 2010.
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