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United States Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q1 2008
Business Monitor International, Feb 2008, Pages: 113
The United States Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the United States pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
Although slowing in the short-term, the author expects the US drug market to pick up towards the end of the forecast period when it should reach a value of US$364.7bn. The best performing segment should be generics, due to a wave of patent expiries and the fact that cost-containment remains a priority throughout the health sector. The biggest threat to generics remains downward price pressure, sparked by stiff competition. For this reson we see growth declining from over 15% in 2008 to just 6% by 2012.
Patented drugs will not fare as well, with growth hovering around the 4% mark. However, the recent quarter has seen a spate of product approvals, which should help the long term prospects of the sector. In October 2007, Bristol Myers-Squibb (BMS) received US FDA approval for its breast cancer drug Ixempra (ixabepilone), which is forecast to generate US$500mn in sales by 2011. In the same month the US FDA also approved Merck & Cos revolutionary new HIV/AIDS medication Isentress (raltegravir) for patients who have formed resistance to existing treatment, while in August, Pfizer’s breakthrough HIV/AIDS treatment Selzentry (maraviroc) also received the greenlight.
On the downside, Pfizer had recently pulled its inhaled insulin product Exubera- hailed as a major advance when it was approved in 2006- after poor sales. This demonstrates the danger that many potential blockbusters face. In terms of regulatory developments, the biggest news has involved direct-to consumer (DTC) advertising, with a new bill passing through Congress protecting the right of drug makers to advertise products that carry serious safety warnings. However, the US FDA will be given the power to review TV advertisements before they air. Also, the agency will be given leeway to levy fines for adverts considered false and misleading.
In the new methodology for Business Environment Rankings - which give stronger emphasis to the regulatory environment, and also factor in country-specific economic and political indicators - the US ranks in No.1 position, both in the Americas region and globally. This is primarily because of its world leading Intellectual Property (IP) provisions, the sheer size of the pharmaceutical market, and the generally positive structure of the US economy.
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