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Hong Kong Commercial Banking Report Q1 2008
Business Monitor International, Feb 2008, Pages: 33
The Hong Kong Commercial Banking Report provides independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Hong Kongs commercial banking industry.
From Q108 we will be calculating the Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating (CBBER) for each of the countries surveyed by BMI. This will permit a more systematic and comprehensive comparison of the conditions within the banking industries of the various countries than was possible in the past. For each country, it will also facilitate a comparison of the conditions within the banking sector and conditions prevailing in other sectors. Hong Kong’s overall CBBER is 79.5. The equivalent figures for the USA and the eurozone are 84.8 and 81.4, respectively. Hong Kong’s CBBER is higher than that of any other country in the Asia Pacific region. Australia offers the closest comparison (at 76.3), followed by Japan (at 75) and Singapore (at 74.9).
Within the CBBER, the most important aspect is the (banking) market element of the limits of potential returns. This element accounts for 42% of the overall CBBER. Hong Kong’s rating for this element - 74.4 - is slightly lower than the overall CBBER and lower than the country element of the limits of potential returns - 78.9. By both regional and international standards, Hong Kong also scores very highly in both the market element (96.7) and the country element (80.9) of the risks to the realisation of returns.
Hong Kongs economy continues to perform strongly, as domestic consumption remains robust and the knock-on effects of Chinas booming economy continue to provide a boost to the territory. However, while consumption is set to remain strong, a softening of external demand for Hong Kong exports as a result of a slowing US economy is a downside risk to growth. Nonetheless, demand from China will help support Hong Kongs merchandise exports, and global demand for services from the territory will maintain their current robust momentum. We are forecasting Hong Kongs real GDP to expand 6.2% in 2007, and while this will be down slightly from the 6.8% growth witnessed in 2006, it will nevertheless remain robust.
Fiscal Policy - Strong Growth Buoys Public Finances
Hong Kong posted a budget surplus of HKD4.8bn (US$616mn) in the April-July period, as the territory continues to make impressive fiscal improvements. Robust economic growth has boosted tax collections, and this rise in government revenues has been accompanied by prudence on the expenditure side, helping to buoy public finances. However, focus must now be turned to ensuring long-term stability, as Hong Kong faces an ageing population and a narrow tax base which is susceptible to a future economic downturn. The proposed goods and services tax will help switch the territory away from an income tax focused system towards a system based more around consumption, but will unfortunately continue to face much opposition.
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