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Kuwait Insurance Report Q1 2008
Business Monitor International, Feb 2008, Pages: 29
The Kuwait Insurance Report provides independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Kuwaits insurance industry.
This report differs from its predecessors in that it includes BMI’s Insurance Business Environment Rating (IBER). The rating brings together a number of pieces of relevant quantitative data, together with BMI’s Country Risk Rating (CRR). It is now much easier to consider the business environment for the insurance sector in any one country relative to the business environment for other industries in that country that are surveyed by BMI, and the business environment for the insurance sector in other countries.
Kuwait’s IBER is 45.3. Relative to other countries in Middle East and Africa, it is a moderately attractive insurance market for foreign insurers. Within the region, Kuwait stands out for the country structure score on the IBER, this is the result of high scores for financial risk, external risk and policy continuity. However, the IBER is held back by the underdevelopment of the life segment and non-life segment as well as GDP volatility.
Over the forecast period, we anticipate that non-life premiums will grow by 15% annually in local currency terms and by 15% in US dollar terms. Life premiums are expected to increase by 10% annually in local currency terms and by 11% in US dollar terms. The key drivers of growth in the non-life segment in 2007-2012 are the anticipated rise in nominal GDP from around US$103bn to US$130bn and an expected increase in non-life penetration from 0.53% of GDP to 1.00%. The key driver of growth in the life segment is the envisaged rise in life density from a miniscule US$65.06 per capita in 2007 to US$90 per capita in 2012, and the rise in population from 2.99mn to 3.62mn.
Although Kuwait’s life segment is growing very rapidly from a very low base, its small absolute size, and the entrenched positions of the local firms mean that other cross-border firms are unlikely to enter the market. In both life and non-life segments, takaful insurance appears to be better developed in Kuwait than in other markets in the region. Kuwait may emerge as a significant centre for takaful. However, in this respect, it faces competition from the UAE and Bahrain.
The bulk of exports - namely oil - are denominated in US dollars, and since January 2003 the country has maintained an explicit peg against the US dollar, limiting any convertibility risk. This contributes increasing the IBER for country structure. However, oil accounts for almost 50% of GDP, more than 80% of government revenues, and over 90% of total export earnings, with the non-oil economy still relatively under-developed. This makes Kuwait highly vulnerable to exogenous shocks, especially in relation to world oil prices. Similarly, the extreme volatility of has a negative impact on Kuwait’s IBER.
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