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Japan Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q2 2008
Business Monitor International, April 2008, Pages: 86
The Japan Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Japans pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
Japan’s pharmaceutical market is currently valued at US$74.4bn and is easily the most mature in the Asia Pacific region. Top-line sales stagnated for the first time in 2006 and this scenario is likely to be repeated in 2007. However, this is a temporary trend as the country’s vast ageing population will cause the market to expand once again. By 2012, we expect the value of market to reach US$82.0bn.
The country’s generics sector is one of the most promising in our coverage universe. In an effort to control ballooning healthcare costs, the ministry of health plans to raise the volumes share of generics within the total prescription market to at least 30% by 2012. The current value of the sector is US$5.5bn, which equates to 7.3% of total medicines sales. Changes to prescribing procedures and the influx of foreign firms with low-cost goods will provide a stimulus to the generic drug sector.
It has emerged that the debilitating and sometime deadly viral condition hepatitis C is grossly underdiagnosed in Japan. Spurred on by a tainted blood scandal, the government is looking to increase awareness of the disease, which is estimated to affect 1.4% of the population, or 1.75mn people. The author believes that this campaign will provide a boost for manufacturers of testing kits and pharmaceutical companies that sell hepatitis C therapeutics, such as Switzerlands Roche and US firm Schering-Plough.
For fiscal-year 2008, the budget for the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (MHLW) was been increased by 3.0% to JPY222bn (US$221bn). This compares favourably to overall economic growth in 2007, which was estimated to be 2.6% by our Country Risk team. Within the MHLWs spending plan, emphasis has been placed on cancer prevention, medical research and development (R&D), hepatitis countermeasures, and stem cell research. Worryingly for drugmakers, funding for accelerated access to pharmaceuticals has been cut.
During Q108, Novartis became the latest multinational to scale back its research operations in Japan, with the planned closure of a facility in Tsukuba near Tokyo by the end of 2008. In recent years, numerous international drugmakers - Pfizer, Schering AG and GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) - have reduced their R&D footprint in Japan.
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