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2Q08 Iraq Mobile Forecast, 2008 - 2010: Iraqna (Orascom Tel) and Atheer Tel (MTC) merger in Iraq does not bode well for AsiaCell (Wataniya)
IE Market Research Corp., April 2008
This Mobile Forecast on Iraq provides over 65 operational and financial metrics for the Iraq wireless market. We cover quarterly historical data starting in 4Q2003 and ending in 4Q2007. We also provide four-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2010. Operators covered for Iraq include: Iraqna (Orascom Tel), AsiaCell (Wataniya), and Atheer Tel (MTC). Our Mobile Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
Notable highlights of the 2Q08 Iraq Mobile Forecast include:
- Total subscribers in Iraq will increase from 13.4 million to 15.4 million over the forecast period of 2008 - 2010. - We forecast that the wireless penetration level in Iraq will increase from our projected 50.4% in 2008 to our forecasted 59.1% in 2010. - The market structure changed significantly after Iraqna (Orascom Tel) and Atheer Tel (MTC) merged in January 2008. We expect the merged firm to serve 62.7% of total subscribers while its competitor, AsiaCell (Wataniya), will have 37.3% of total subscribers over the next few years. - The ARPU levels in Iraq are generally decreasing. We forecast that the ARPU level of AsiaCell will decrease from US $7.56 per month in 2008 to US $6.73 per month in 2010. As a result, its EBITDA margin will fall from 49.0% to 45.0% over this period.
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