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2Q.08 Global Handset Forecast
IE Market Research Corp., May 2008, Pages: 42
Global Handset Forecast provides historical (2003 - 2007) and forecasted (2008 - 2009) information on handset revenues, market share, unit shipments, Average Selling Prices (ASPs), and operating margins at the Top-5 vendors. Notable highlights of the 2Q08 Global Handset Forecast include:
- Unit shipments globally are expected to rise from 1.14 billion in 2007 to 1.41 billion in 2009. The biggest story as far as unit shipments are concerned is that, we think that Motorola will recover only slightly from the disastrous 2007 to reach 200 million units in 2009. This is still below Motorola’s 2006 shipment figures.
- We expect biggest shipment increases to happen at Asian vendors. We are expecting Samsung to show a 34.7% increase over the 2008 - 2009 period while LG is forecasted to show a 38.8% increase in unit shipments over the forecasted period. Both LG and Samsung are increasingly leveraging existing electronics channels to sell through their mobile handsets in emerging markets.
- By historical standards, ASPs at the Top-5 Vendors will be declining at a fairly modest pace. Compared to the approximately -10% declines in ASPs experienced in 2004, we think that overall pricing trends among the Top-5 are firming up due to the higher preponderance of 3G and converged devices.
- NOKIA’s Channels and product offering will continue to drive profits and margins despite lower ASPs compared to other Top-5 vendors. Nokia has a higher operating profit than all of the other Top-5 vendors put together. We expect operating profits at Nokia to increase by 19.1% over the next two years as recent changes announced take effect. We expect Nokia to increase its operating profits from the current $10.6 billion to $12.6 billion in 2009
Handset Forecasts are based on our proprietary, vendor-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular region; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics. Clients will receive and Excel Sheet together with an Executive Summary (in PDF).
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