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Tanzania Telecommunications Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, December 2011, Pages: 76
BMI’s Q112 Tanzania telecoms market report includes analysis and forecasts for the mobile, fixed and internet sectors, using market data from the Tanzania Communications Regulatory Authority (TCRA), the country’s leading telecoms operators, including Vodacom Tanzania – part of South Africa’s Vodacom Group – Bharti Airtel-owned Airtel Tanzania and Millicom Internal Cellular-owned Tigo Tanzania.
In this quarter’s update, we extend our five-year forecast to 2016 and analyse regulatory and industry developments expected to effect various telecoms and telecoms-related services in the country. The TCRA was yet to publish market data beyond March 2011 at the time of writing. However, market leader Vodacom recorded net additions of 246,000 subscribers during Q211 to bring its subscriber base to 9.260mn by the end of June 2011.
Latest data from the regulator shows there 21.028mn mobile subscribers in the country at the end of March 2011. Although q-o-q growth of just 0.2% in Q111 was significantly less than previous growth rates, we do not see it as a sign of market saturation, considering mobile penetration rate is still less than 50%. Instead, we believe it is indicative of saturation in urban areas where only 30% of the population live. This implies there is significant scope for subscriber growth in rural areas, but we caution that actualisation of this potential is dependent on the ability of operators to identify and implement cost-effective strategies for rural rollout. During our forecast period, we expect the market to continue to record strong subscriber growth as competition and new technologies facilitate network expansion into rural areas. By 2016 we expect there will be about 37.7mn mobile subscribers in Tanzania, reflecting a penetration rate of 70%.
While BMI believes rural roll-out presents a viable opportunity for future subscriber growth, there is an increasing likelihood of operators choosing to roll out high value services such as mobile data in urban areas, where income levels are higher as opposed to network expansion to rural areas. This is driven by the limited correlation between subscriber growth and revenue growth mainly because of low ARPUs and MoUs. Meanwhile, the increasing availability of international bandwidth from submarine cables and lowcost data-enables devices are driving the uptake of 3G services and other premium value-added services.
Tanzania’s fixed-line sector recorded positive growth during Q111 with net additions of 366 lines. Although this was fewer than 1,860 net additions registered in the previous quarter, BMI believes the positive growth is indicative of continued demand for fixed-line services, most of which are based on CDMA wireless networks, despite the dominance of mobile networks. We therefore maintain our growth forecast, which shows fixed-line subscriptions will reach 193,000 by 2016.
We revised our internet and broadband forecast to reflect new historical data published by the TCRA and the ITU. These data show higher internet penetration, but lower broadband penetration by the end of 2010 than previously expected. We expect internet and broadband penetration to reach 29% and 3.3% respectively by 2016, driven by increasing access to wireless access technologies.
Business Monitor International's Tanzania Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Tanzania's telecommunications industry.
Tanzania Mobile SWOT
Tanzania Fixed-Line and Broadband SWOT
Tanzania Political SWOT
Tanzania Economic SWOT
Tanzania Business Environment SWOT
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Q112 RRR Table
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Monthly Blended ARPU
Table: Telecoms Sector – Fixed Line – Historical Data & Forecasts
Table: Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data & Forecasts
Market Data Analysis
Table: Tanzania Mobile Market Q111
Table: Tanzania Mobile Market Net Additions Q111
Table: Major Players Leverage Footprint In VAS Development
Mobile Operator Data
Table: Tanzania Total Market
Table: Benson & Sasatel
Table: Internet Subscriptions By Type And Access
Table: Bandwith Capacity, June 2010
Regulatory Environment & Industry Developments
Table: Tanzania Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
Table: Number Of Licensed Operators
Table: Key Players – Tanzania Telecoms Sector
Table: Ericsson: Net Sales By Division (SEKmn)
Table: Ericsson: Selected Contracts In Sub-Saharan Africa, 2010-2011
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview
Table: Regional Internet Use Penetration Overview
Glossary Of Terms
Table: Glossary Of Terms
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Ratings Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
- Vodacom Tanzania
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