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3Q09 India Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013
IE Market Research Corp., Oct 2009, Pages: 118
Total wireless subscribers in India to reach 876.6 million in 2013 with Bharti Airtel's market share increasing to 27.4%
Mobile Operator Forecast on India provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for India’s wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 1Q2011. Operators covered for India include: Reliance Communications Ltd. (RCom), Vodafone Essar Limited, Bharti Airtel Limited, Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited (BSNL), and Idea Cellular Limited. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Executive Summary
Wireless subscriber growth in India continues to be one of the fastest in the world
+50.1% industry-average subscriber growth in 1Q.2009
ARPU levels continue to fall at an increasing rate
-19.7% industry average ARPU growth in 1Q.2009
Minutes of Use per Subscriber declined across operators in the latest quarter
-8.6% industry average MOU/Sub growth in 1Q.2009
EBITDA growth slows down and EBITDA margins decline at RCom
-0.8% EBITDA growth for RCom in 1Q.2009
So what is Forecast?
Total wireless subscribers in India to reach 876.6 million in 2013
- By combining historical trends with the current market conditions, our forecasting model predicts that the number of total wireless subscribers in India will reach 876.6 million in 2013.
- Bharti-Airtel will continue to be the largest operator in India. We expect that its subscriber base will increase from 85.7 million in 2008 to 239.9 million in 2013.
- Our model also predicts that RCom (Reliance Communications) will have 158.8 million mobile subscribers and Vodafone Essar will have 151.6 million mobile subscribers by the end of 2013.
We see some shift in market share among operators with BSNL losing market share to Bharti Airtel, RCom, and Idea
- Bharti Airtel will continue to be the leader in India's wireless market. We forecast that its subscriber market share will increase from 24.7% in 2008 to 27.4% in 2013.
- We also expect that market shares for RCom and Idea will be increasing over the next five years to reach 18.1% and 13.2% respectively in 2013.
- In contrast, our model predicts that BSNL's market share will decline from 13.3% in 2008 to 7.3% in 2013.
ARPU declines to continue over the next five years
- ARPU levels in India will continue to fall across operators over the next several years. Our model predicts that the industry average monthly ARPU will decline from INR 302 in 2008 to INR 240 in 2013.
- We expect that RCom will continue to receive the lowest ARPUs in India's mobile operator space. We forecast that its monthly ARPU will decline from INR 277 in 2008 to INR 201 in 2013.
EBITDA margins at Bharti-Airtel to improve over the 2008-2013 period
- Our forecasting model predicts that Bharti-Airtel's EBITDA margin will improve from 31.9% to 34.2% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
- On the other hand, although RCom will continue to be the most profitable operator in India, it will still see its EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA / reported revenue) deteriorate from 39.3% in 2008 to 38.2% in 2013.
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