Chile Tourism Report Q1 2012
Business Monitor International, December 2011, Pages: 54
Business Monitor International's Chile Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, tourism associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Chile's tourism industry.
BMI remains positive on the outlook for Chilean tourism going into 2012. For 9M11, arrivals data show an 11.9% year on year (y-o-y) increase to 2,213,467 tourist arrivals, according to figures released by the Chilean National Tourism Service (Servicio Nacional de Turismo Chile, Sernatur). Given this very positive start to the year, and the October-December historically a period of strong arrivals, BMI believes the time is right to make a slight upward adjustment to its 2011 tourist arrivals forecast. It forecasts a total of 3,042,600 tourists will visit Chile in 2011, an increase of 10% y-o-y.
This follows 2010, when 2,766,007 tourists visited the country, an increase of 0.6% on 2009. It is testimony to the attractiveness of Chile as a tourist destination that visitor numbers continued to rise during 2007-2010, a time when many other tourist destinations suffered falls in visitor numbers as a result of the global economic crisis.
BMI believes that there is every indication that Chile can continue to grow its tourist arrival numbers and tourism revenue in the years ahead. BMI forecasts 23% growth in tourist arrivals between 2011 and 2015, reaching 3.75mn tourist arrivals. Over the same period, it expects tourism receipts to increase by 24%, to reach US$2.84bn.
LAN-TAM Merger To Be Completed By Q112
In September 2011, Chile’s antitrust court approved the planned merger between Brazilian airline TAM and Chile’s LAN, which was first proposed in August 2010. In late October, rival Chilean airline PAL Airlines dropped its objection to the LAN-TAM merger, which removed another obstacle to the deal being approved. PAL had challenged the merger proposalon competition grounds but is now satisfied with the steps made by LAN in this area. LAN also agreed to pay the court fees incurred by PAL as part of the legal challenge, which totalled about US$5mn.
This only leaves Brazil’s antitrust authority CADE to approve the merger, which must also be supported by both airlines’ shareholders. In October 2011, TAM said the merged LATAM Airlines Group should be established by the end of Q112, subject to final regulatory and shareholder approval.
BMI believes the merger of the airlines should be positive for the Latin American tourism industry as it should lower costs for passengers as a result of cost synergies and economies of scale. The merged company will be one of the three leading airlines in the world in terms of market value, offering services on 280 aircraft to more than 115 destinations worldwide, according to TAM.
Hilton Enters Chilean Market In June 2011, US-based hotel chain Hilton opened its first hotel in Chile, the Hilton Garden Inn Santiago Airport. The property features 144 guest rooms, a restaurant, a fitness centre and spa, and extensive conferencing facilities.
In recent years, several other high-end hotel chains have opened new properties in Chile, including W Hotels’ 196-room Santiago property. In March 2011, InterContinental Hotels Group (IHG) signed a 20-year management agreement to manage a new-build InterContinental Hotel in Punta Piqueros. The 140-room InterContinental Punta Piqueros will feature a gym and spa, 9,500m2 of meeting space as well as bars and dining facilities. The property is scheduled to open in January 2013 and will be IHG’s 10th property in Chile.
BMI believes the presence of this significant number of high-end properties should do much to boost average room revenue rates for Chile as a whole, and will also aid the sector’s overall development in the coming years.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Chile Tourism SWOT
Chile Political SWOT
Chile Economic SWOT
Chile Business Environment SWOT
Industry Forecast Scenario
Arrivals
Table: Arrivals Data, 2008-2015
Accommodation
Table: Hotels Data, 2008-2015 (‘000, unless stated)
Expenditure
Table: Tourism Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2008-2015
Inbound Tourism
Table: Tourist Arrivals, 2008-2015 (‘000, unless stated)
Outbound Tourism
Table: Outbound Tourism Data, 2008-2015 (‘000, unless stated)
Market Overview – Travel
Commercial Airlines
Cruise Ships
Global Oil Products Price Outlook
Market Overview – Hospitality
Accommodation
Tourism Infrastructure
Eco-Tourism
HidroAysén Dam Project
Business Environment Outlook
Table: Latin America Travel And Tourism Business Environment Ratings
BMI’s Security Ratings
Table: Latin America Security Ratings
Table: Latin America State Vulnerability To Terrorism Ratings
Chile’s Security Risk Ratings
City Terrorism Ratings
Table: BMI Americas City Terrorism Index
Latin America Security Overview
Latin America In A Global Context
Key Factors To Consider In The 2010s
Global Assumptions
Europe On The Edge
Table: Global Assumptions, 2009-2015
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% chg y-o-y)
Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates, 2010-2013
Table: Emerging Market Exchange Rates, 2010-2013
Developed States
Table: Developed States Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2010-2013 (%chg y-o-y)
Emerging Markets
Table: Emerging Markets Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2010-2013 (% chg y-o-y)
Table: Real GDP Growth Consensus Forecasts, 2011-2012 (%chg y-o-y)
Company Profiles
LAN Airlines
Panamericana Hoteles
Sky Airline
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Tourism Industry
Tourism Ratings – Methodology
Table: Tourism Business Environment Indicators
Table: Weighting of Components
City Terrorism Ratings
Table: City Terrorism Rating Methodology
Sources
- LAN Airlines
- Panamericana Hoteles
- Sky Airline
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