Bosnia and Herzegovina Defence and Security Report 2013
Business Monitor International, December 2012, Pages: 67
Bosnia & Herzegovina spent most of 2011 in turmoil after an inconclusive general election result in October 2010 left the country's political leaders squabbling over how best to form a coalition for the best part of 14 months, only resolving the issue in late December 2011 and electing a new government in February 2012. The political parties representing the country's three ethnic groups – Bosniaks, Serbs and Croats – agreed to share power and distribute ministerial posts fairly among themselves, with Vjekoslav Bevanda of the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) appointed Prime Minister and the presidency rotating between the parties every eight months (in accordance with the 1995 Dayton Peace Accord). However,
cracks began to emerge in 2012, not least in the form of infighting between the Party of Democratic Action (SDA) and Social Democratic Party (SDP) over the right to represent the country's Muslim population. Their infighting and the SDA's refusal to vote for the 2012 state budget culminated in parliament voting to remove Deputy Finance Minister Fuad Kasumovic, Security Minister Sadik Ahmetovic and Defence Minister Muhamed Ibrahimovic as punishment in mid-October 2012 and could ultimately lead HDZ, the country's leading Croat party, to assume the SDA's position in the ruling coalition. Bosnia suddenly seems no further forward in its quest for political harmony than it was when the polls first closed in 2010. Its hopes of following other former Yugoslavian states into the EU seem even more remote.
The Bosnian government was about to begin debating Republika Srpska President Milorad Dodik's controversial proposal that the country abolish its armed forces altogether at the time of writing in late October 2012. 'Bosnia & Herzegovina has a bulky military machine that spends too much money and doesn't give any results,' Dodik's original proposal stated. The motion is set to be supported in parliament by the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats. Its president, Zeijko Mirjanic argues that Bosnia &
Herzegovina does not currently need an army because of the ongoing presence of NATO soldiers in the territory and the legal obligation placed on neighbouring Croatia and Serbia to keep the peace following the horrific war of 1992-95. Mirjanic suggested that the expense involved in maintaining armed forces could be better used by investing it in the country's recovering economy – still at risk from the knock-on effects of the eurozone's sovereign debt crisis. Bosnia only formed a unified military in 2006 and opponent Safet Halilovic said he felt the initiative was unlikely to win support.
Assuming Bosnia & Herzegovina does retain its military and its central government manages to stay together, we anticipate defence spending of US$185.67mn in 2013, a 9.5% decline on the US$205.15mn spent in 2012, which in itself marked a decrease of 12.3% on 2011's US$233.93mn. This will account for just 0.93% of the country's GDP. Bosnia and Herzegovina's military currently consists of around 15,000 active troops, 5,000 reserve troops and 1,000 civilian staff. From its population of 3.75mn, Bosnia has 1.8mn men and women aged between 16 and 49 theoretically available to serve in its armed,
approximately 48.86%. While the country had 60,000 NATO and EUFOR peacekeeping troops in place in 1995, this has since been reduced to 1,200.
The war crimes trial of former Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic at The Hague is still ongoing and continuing to capture the attention of the world's media. Karadzic was arrested in Belgrade in 2008 after 13 years as a fugitive and stands accused of 10 counts of genocide, including orchestrating the notorious massacre of 7,000 Bosniaks at Srebrenica and the siege of Sarajevo in which 12,000 civilians were killed.
Karadzic has denied the charges and made headlines by insisting that he is 'a mild and tolerant man' who should instead be acclaimed for 'reducing suffering'. Meanwhile fellow Bosnian Serb excommander Ratko Mladic faces 11 charges of war crimes carried out during the 1992-1995 Bosnian war. Video footage of local people panicking in a UN compound outside Srebrenica on July 11 1995 as Bosnian Serb forces approached was shown in the court on May 17 2012.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Bosnia & Herzegovina Security SWOT 7
Bosnia & Herzegovina Security SWOT 8
Bosnia & Herzegovina Political SWOT 9
Bosnia & Herzegovina Economic SWOT 10
Bosnia & Herzegovina Business Environment SWOT 11
Global Political Outlook 12
Europe Security Overview 17
The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s 17
Europe In A Global Context 17
Europe's Key Security Issues Over The Coming Decade 17
The Future Of The Eurozone And EU 17
EU Expansion 18
NATO Expansion And Relations With The US 18
Post-Qadhafi Libya 19
Relations With Russia 20
Relations With Turkey 20
The Balkans 21
Organised Crime 21
Islamist Terrorism 22
The Greater Black Sea Region 22
The Armenia-Azerbaijan Dispute 23
Security Risk Analysis 25
BMI's Security Ratings 25
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings 25
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 26
Political Overview 28
Domestic Politics 28
New IMF Deal Eases Short-Term Financing Pressures 28
Long-Term Political Outlook 29
Unity To Prove Elusive Over Next Decade 29
Foreign Policy 37
Balkans Sliding Away From The EU 37
Bosnia & Herzegovina Security Overview 41
Internal Security Situation 41
Landmines 44
Latest Developments 44
External Security Situation 46
Latest Developments 46
Armed Forces And Government Spending 48
Armed Forces 48
Defence Reforms 48
International Deployments 49
Table: Foreign Deployments In 2006 50
Market Overview 51
Arms Trade Overview 52
Imports 53
Table: Imports Of Military Equipment To Bosnia, 2004 53
Exports 53
Table: Exports Of Military Equipment From Bosnia, 2004 54
Industry Trends And Developments 54
Procurement Trends And Developments 55
Industry Forecast Scenario 57
Armed Forces 57
Table: Bosnia & Herzegovina Armed Forces, 2002-2008 ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) 57
Table: Bosnia & Herzegovina Manpower Available For Military Services, 2010-2017 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) 57
Defence Expenditure 58
Table: Bosnia & Herzegovina Defence Expenditure, 2010-2017 58
Table: Bosnia & Herzegovina Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2010-2017 (US$mn) 59
Defence Trade 61
Table: Bosnia & Herzegovina Defence Exports, 2010-2017 (US$mn) 61
Table: Bosnia & Herzegovina Defence Imports, 2010-2017 (US$mn) 61
Table: Bosnia & Herzegovina Defence Trade Balance, 2010-2017 (US$mn) 62
Macroeconomic Forecast 62
Recovery Faltering 62
BMI Methodology 65
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 65
Defence Industry 65
Sources 66
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