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3Q09 Bangladesh Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013
IE Market Research Corp., Oct 2009, Pages: 118
Total wireless subscribers in Bangladesh to reach 69.1 million with GrameenPhone's market share declining to 37.1%
Mobile Operator Forecast on Bangladesh provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for Bangladesh’s wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 1Q2011. Operators covered for Bangladesh include: Banglalink/Sheba (Orascom Telecom Holding S.A.E), GrameenPhone (Telenor ASA), TM Int'l (Telekom Malaysia Berhad), PBTL (Singapore Telecommunications Ltd), Warid Telecom International, and BTTB (Bangladesh Telegraph and Telephone Board). Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Executive Summary
Subscriber growth in Bangladesh's wireless market remains strong, but growth is slowing down
+21.8% industry average subscriber growth in 1Q.2009
ARPUs continue declining in Bangladesh
-13.1% operator-wide average ARPU growth in 1Q.2009
Minutes of Use per subscriber are increasing
+21.1 industry average MOU/Sub growth in 1Q.2009
Strong EBITDA growth at GrameenPhone in the latest quarter
GrameenPhone's EBITDA growth was +29.8% in 1Q.2009
So what is Forecast?
Total wireless subscribers in Bangladesh to rise to 69.1 million in 2013
- We forecast that total wireless subscribers in Bangladesh will increase from 47.9 million in 2008 to 69.1 million in 2013.
- We expect that GrameenPhone will maintain its leading position in Bangladesh's wireless market over the next five years with 25.7 million mobile subscribers in 2013.
- Bangalink, TM International, Warid and PBTL will remain in second, third, fourth and fifth place respectively. BTTB will finish last.
GrameenPhone's subscriber market share will be declining over the next five years
- Our model predicts that GrameenPhone's subscriber market share will decline from 43.8% in 2008 to 37.1% in 2013.
- Also, we expect that TM International's subscriber market share will fall from 17.5% in 2008 to 15.3% in 2013.
- On the other hand, Bangalink's market share will be increasing from 21.6% in 2008 to 25.9% in 2013.
- The other smaller operators including PBTL, Warid and BTTB will also see their subscriber market shares increase over the next several years, according to our model.
ARPU levels in Bangladesh will be declining from 2009 to 2013
- We forecast that the industry average monthly ARPU will decline from USD 3.54 to USD 2.20 over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
- Given the past and the current pricing strategies at the operators, our model predicts that Bangalink's ARPU will decrease from USD 2.99 in 2008 to USD 2.29 in 2013, and GrameenPhone's ARPU will fall from USD 3.81 in 2008 to USD 2.14 in 2013.
GrameenPhone's EBITDA margin will be improving over the next several years
- We expect that GrameenPhone's profitability will be increasing over the forecast period. Our model predicts that GrameenPhone's EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will increase from 45.6% in 2008 to 55.8% in 2013.
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