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Kuwait Oil and Gas Report Q4 2009
Business Monitor International, Oct 2009, Pages: 64
The Kuwait Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Kuwait's oil and gas industry.
The latest Kuwait Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 2.71% of Middle East (ME) regional oil demand by 2013, while providing 10.35% of supply. Regional oil use of 8.24mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to 11.25mn b/d in 2008. It should average 11.30mn b/d in 2009 and then rise to around 12.17mn b/d by 2013. Regional oil production was 22.87mn b/d in 2001 and in 2008 averaged 26.29mn b/d. It is set to rise to 28.01mn b/d by 2013. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 14.63mn b/d. This total had risen to 15.04mn b/d in 2008 and is forecast to reach 15.84mn b/d by 2013. Iraq has the greatest production growth potential, followed by Qatar.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2008 consumed 391.5bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 512.8bcm targeted for 2013, representing 31.0% growth. Production of 389.5bcm in 2008 should reach 610.4bcm in 2013 (+56.7%), which implies net exports rising to 98bcm by the end of the period. Kuwait in 2008 consumed 3.27% of the region’s gas, with its market share forecast at 4.93% by 2013. It contributed 3.29% to 2008 regional gas production and by 2013 will account for 3.16% of supply. For 2009 as a whole, we are now assuming an average OPEC basket price of US$55.00 per barrel (bbl), a 41.5% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). This represents an upgrade from the US$52 forecast we have stuck with during the past three quarters. Our OPEC basket assumption delivers likely Brent, WTI, Urals and Dubai prices of US$56.30, US$57.50, US$55.60 and US$55.60/bbl respectively. For 2010, we expect to see a recovery to US$60.00/bbl for the OPEC price (up from our previous forecast of US$58), gaining further ground to US$65.00 in 2011 and to US$70.00/bbl in 2012. Our post-2010 forecasts are unchanged and we are continuing to use a long-term price assumption of US$70.00 for 2013-2018. In 2009, BMI is now assuming a global average gasoline price of US$62.12/bbl, with the fuel having peaked in June. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline prices is put at 40.0%. The BMI gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$68.62/bbl, assuming a monthly high of US$92.49/bbl in December. The fullyear outturn represents a 43.4% fall from the 2008 level. The annual jet price level for 2009 is forecast to be US$65.17/bbl. This compares with US$124.95/bbl in 2008. The 2009 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$49.06/bbl, down 43.9% from the previous year’s level.
Kuwaiti real GDP is now forecast by BMI to fall by 1.0% in 2009, following growth of 6.3% in 2008. We are assuming 2.1% growth in 2010, 2.5% in 2011, followed by 3.4% in 2012 and 3.7% in 2013. We expect oil demand to rise from 300,000b/d in 2008 to 330,000b/d in 2013, lagging the underlying rate of economic expansion. State oil company Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC) is responsible for all domestic oil and gas operations. In spite of the absence of near-term international oil company (IOC) investment, crude production is forecast to increase from 2.78mn b/d in 2008 to 2.90mn b/d in 2013, subject to OPEC quotas. Gas production should reach 19.3bcm by 2013, up from 12.8bcm in 2008. Consumption is expected to rise from 12.8bcm to 25.3bcm by the end of the forecast period, requiring imports of 6.0bcm.
Between 2008 and 2018, we are forecasting an increase in Kuwaiti oil production of 29.3%, with crude volumes rising steadily to 3.60mn b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2008 and 2018 is set to increase by 29.2%, with growth slowing to an assumed 3.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 388,000b/d by 2018. Gas production is expected to climb to almost 27bcm by the end of the period. With 2008-2018 demand growth of 204%, this provides an import requirement rising to more than 12bcm by 2018. Details of the BMI 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Kuwait still occupies ninth place in BMI’s updated Upstream Business Environment rating, which is a surprising outcome in view of its vast oil and gas wealth. It is just one place ahead of Saudi Arabia, but should be safe from any immediate challenge thanks to a comfortable margin. The country’s score suffers from strict government control of the upstream industry, undermining the healthy resource position. The country is in the lower half of the league table in BMI’s Downstream Business Environment rating, with a few high scores and near-term progress up the rankings a possibility. It is ranked ninth ahead only of Iraq, thanks largely to excellent country risk factors that outweigh a highly regulated and largely statecontrolled industry. Iran and Bahrain are immediately above it in the regional rankings, but are unlikely to pull further away during the next few quarters.
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