Belgium Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q2 2012

Belgium Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Belgium's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.

BMI View

Belgium, much like most of the other regional markets, is expected to post negative year-on-year (y-o-y) value growth in its 2012 pharmaceutical sales because of patent expirations and the tightening operating environment. As part of its fiscal austerity programme, the new government is committed to the reduction in healthcare budget by 2015, a policy seen as necessary to address the growing medical costs associated with a rapidly ageing population. The pharmaceutical industry will continue to protest against the difficult operating conditions, which have already led to delays in the launch of a number of off-patent medicines.

Headline Expenditure Projections

- Pharmaceuticals: EUR6.12bn (US$8.51bn) in 2011 to EUR5.99bn (US$7.73bn) in 2012; -2.1% in local currency terms and -9.2% in US dollar terms. Historical figures have been increased on the basis of new data.

- Healthcare: EUR36.85bn (US$51.23bn) in 2011 to EUR37.90bn (US$48.89bn) in 2012; +2.8% in local currency terms and -4.6% in US dollar terms. Local currency forecast is broadly unchanged from Q112.

- Medical devices: EUR1.67bn (US$2.32bn) in 2011 to EUR1.74bn (US$2.24bn) in 2012; +4.2% in local currency terms and -3.3% in US dollar terms. Local currency forecast is broadly unchanged from Q112.

Risk/Reward Ratings: Belgium scores an unchanged 65.0 out of 100in BMI’s Q212 Pharmaceuticals Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs). However, that score now means that Belgium is fifth in the Western Europe matrix as Sweden has moved down the rankings. Belgium’s position in the matrix will continue to be propped up by its favourable risk score rather than its rewards, given the downward pressure on pharmaceutical and healthcare spending. At 50 out of a 100, its industry rewards component is one of the weakest in the region. Globally, Belgium is 11th out of the 95 markets surveyed by BMI’s expanding pharmaceutical universe.

Key Trends And Developments

- In January 2012, Belgian pharmaceutical company UCB and Japanese firm Otsuka Pharmaceutical amended their collaboration to focus on central nervous system (CNS) disorders. The partners ended their agreement in the area of immunology, including the codevelopment and co-marketing of UCB’s drug Cimzia (certolizumab pegol) in Japan. UCB is preparing to submit a marketing authorisation application to the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare for Cimzia in Q112. The drug is designed for the treatment of patients with rheumatoid arthritis.

- In the same month, Belgian healthcare firm Arseus acquired Polish company Pharma Cosmetic, which specialises in the delivery of pharmaceutical raw materials to compounding pharmacies in Poland. The company is expected to report approximately EUR7.5mn (US$9.8mn) in turnover for 2011. The deal increases the geographic reach of Arseus, which provides products such as surgical instruments, dentists’ chairs and pharmaceutical ingredients.

- In November 2011, US biopharmaceutical company Gilead Sciences formed a licence agreement with Belgian firm Tibotec Pharmaceuticals for the development and commercialisation of a single-tablet regimen. The tablet will be assessed as a treatment for HIV and combines Gilead’s Emtriva (emtricitabine) and investigational agent GS 7340 with Prezista (darunavir), a novel prodrug of tenofovir and cobicistat and a pharmacoenhancer. Gilead will take responsibility for the formulation, manufacturing, registration and distribution of the singletablet regimen globally (after regulatory approval), while Tibotec will have the rights to co-detail the regimen in specific major markets.

BMI Economic View

The downturn in eurozone economic activity has prompted a downward revision to our growth forecasts for Belgium. We project economic growth of just 0.5% in 2012, down from an already weak 0.8% previously. A particular concern is the national debt of close to 100% of GDP, which leaves Belgium particularly vulnerable to deterioration in risk sentiment and slowdown in economic growth. Although the formation of a new government in December 2011 ended months of political paralysis, the six-party coalition could struggle to overcome ideological differences to make much needed fiscal and economic reforms. There are significant downside risks to our economic growth forecasts over the medium term, particularly stemming from the impact of fiscal consolidation and the eurozone sovereign debt crisis.

BMI Political View

After 18 months of protracted discussions and several failed attempts among royally appointment mediators to bring disparate parties to the negotiating table, Belgium finally formed a new government in December 2011. The government is spearheading a new fiscal reform programme with the view to turning public finances around. Around EUR11bn in savings is the target in 2012 to rein in the fiscal deficit to 2.8% of GDP. Plans include reducing the healthcare budget by 2015 and freezing government personnel and operating costs. The government may also have to contend with a rise in popular discontent among voters who oppose fiscal austerity, which could derail the programme. SHOW LESS READ MORE >

Executive Summary

SWOT Analysis
Belgium Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT
Belgium Political SWOT
Belgium Economic SWOT

Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Western Europe Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Risk/Reward Ratings, Q212
Rewards
Risks

Belgium – Market Summary

Regulatory Regime
Table: Applications Received And Processed By AFMPS, 2007-2009
Regulatory Developments
Intellectual Property Environment
Pricing Regime
Price Cuts
Reimbursement Regime
Generic Medicines Sector
OTC Medicines Sector
Table: Price Build-Up For OTC Medicines

Industry Trends And Developments
Epidemiology
Public Health Developments
Healthcare Sector
Healthcare Financing
Healthcare Sector Developments
Medical Tourism
Research And Development Sector
Clinical Trials
Medical Device Market

Industry Forecast Scenario
Overall Market Forecast
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, 2008-2016
Key Growth Factors – Industry
Table: Overall Healthcare Expenditure, 2008-2016
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure, 2008-2016
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure, 2008-2016
Key Growth Factors – Macroeconomic
Table: Belgium Economic Activity, 2011-2016
Prescription Drug Market Forecast
Table: Prescription Drug Sales, 2008-2016
Patented Drug Market Forecast
Table: Patented Drug Sales, 2008-2016
Generic Drug Market Forecast
Table: Generic Drug Sales, 2008-2016
OTC Medicine Market Forecast
Table: OTC Medicine Sales, 2008-2016
Medical Device Market Forecast
Table: Medical Devices Sales, 2008-2016
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade, 2008-2016
Other Healthcare Data Forecasts
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecasts

Competitive Landscape
Pharmaceutical Industry
Company Developments
Pharmaceutical Wholesale
Pharmaceutical Retail

Company Monitor
Local Companies
UCB Pharma
Solvay
Janssen Pharmaceutica
Omega Pharma
Galapagos
Multinational Companies
GlaxoSmithKline
Pfizer
Novartis
Sanofi
Merck & Co

Country Snapshot: Belgium Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012

Glossary

BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts
Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Indicators
Weighting
Table: Weighting Of Components
Sources

- UCB Pharma
- Solvay
- Janssen Pharmaceutica
- Omega Pharma
- Galapagos
- Multinational Companies
- GlaxoSmithKline
- Pfizer
- Novartis
- Sanofi
- Merck & Co