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United States Defence and Security Report Q3 2012 - Product Image

United States Defence and Security Report Q3 2012

  • ID: 2199717
  • July 2012
  • Region: United States
  • 93 Pages
  • Business Monitor International


  • Boeing
  • L-3 Communications
  • Lockheed Martin
  • Northrop Grumman
  • Raytheon
  • MORE

The United States Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on United States's defence and security industry.

Following the withdrawal of US forces from Iraq, which was completed on December 18 2011, the country is now contemplating the eventual withdrawal of its forces from Afghanistan; a process that will begin in mid-2012, and is expected to be completed by 2015.

As the US reduces its footprint in the country, it will hand over an increasing share of the security burden to the Afghan National Army and police force. Despite the end of NATO's involvement in Afghanistan being on the horizon, relations between Washington DC and Kabul continue to be strained, following a string of high profile incidents where Afghan civilians have been murdered, copies of the Qur'an destroyed and Taliban corpses desecrated.

The eventual withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan is expected to yield significant savings to the Department of Defense budget. For Fiscal Year (FY) 2013, President Barack READ MORE >


  • Boeing
  • L-3 Communications
  • Lockheed Martin
  • Northrop Grumman
  • Raytheon
  • MORE

Executive Summary 5

SWOT Analysis 6

US Security SWOT 6

US Political SWOT 7

US Economic SWOT 8

US Business Environment SWOT 8

Global Political Outlook 9

Major Risks Looming In 2012-2013 9

Global Flashpoints: Eurozone, Iran, Syria, Afghanistan, Korean Peninsula 9
Table: Election Timetable, Q212-Q113 13

Wild Cards To Watch 16

Security Risk Analysis 19
Table: Developed States Security Risk Ratings (scores out of 100, with 100 the best) 19
Table: Developed States Vulnerability To Terrorism Index (scores out of 100, with 100 the best) 19

Political Overview 21

Domestic Politics 21

Policy Paralysis Until November 21

Republicans To Gain In Congress, But Obama To Hold On 21

Whither The Tax Cuts? 22

Risks To Outlook: Wild Cards In The Election 22
Table: United States Political Overview 23

Long-Term Political Outlook 23

Tough Challenges In The 2010s 23

Challenges And Threats To Governance And Stability 24

Scenarios For Political Change 25

Wild Cards: Terrorism And Defeat In Afghanistan 26

Domestic Politics II 27

Interventionist Streak Waning, But Superpower Status Will Linger 27

US Military Interventions Have Mixed Track Record 27
Table: Notable US Military Interventions Since 1950 28

Korea Still A Flashpoint, 60 Years Later 30

Vietnam: US Defeat Did Not Prevent Cold War Victory 31

Gulf War: Quick Victory, But A Decade Of Unfinished Business 31

Somalia Debacle Heightened Risk Aversion In Bosnia 31

Kosovo A Success, But At The Cost Of Strains With Russia 32

Afghanistan Success Slides Into Quagmire 32

Iraq: Saddam's Removal At The Cost Of Iran's Rise 33

US Interventions Require Long-Term Commitments 33

The Limits Of Intervention 33

Despite US War-Weariness, Emergencies Could Force Intervention 34

Security Overview 35

Internal Security 35

Transit Vulnerability 36

Internal Terrorism 37

Cyber-Terrorism 37

Pandemics 38

Crime And Drugs 38

External Security Situation 38
Table: Regional Insurgent Groups – US-Designated Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs) 38

Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) 40

Iran 41

North Korea 43

Afghanistan 44

Iraq 47

Yemen 47

Armed Forces And Government Spending 49

International Deployments 52
Table: Foreign Deployments 52

Weapons Of Mass Destruction 53

Missile Defence Policy 54

Market Overview 56

Arms Trade Overview 57

Industry Trends And Developments 59

Industry Forecast Scenario 66

Armed Forces 66
Table: US Armed Forces Personnel, 2000-2009 ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) 66
Table: US Manpower Available For Military Services, 2009-2016 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) 66

Government Expenditure On Defence Industry 67
Table: US Defence Expenditure, 2009-2016 68
Table: US Defence Expenditure Scenarios – Changing % Of GDP, 2009-2016 (US$mn) 68

Defence Trade 71
Table: US Defence Exports, 2009-2016 (US$mn) 71
Table: US Defence Imports, 2009-2016 (US$mn) 71
Table: US Defence Trade Balance, 2009-2016 (US$mn) 72

Macroeconomic Forecast 72

Below-Par But Sustained Recovery Continues 72
Table: United States – GDP By Expenditure, 2009-2016 (Real Growth %) 76
Table: United States – GDP Contribution To Growth, 2009-2016 76

Company Profiles 77

Boeing 77

L-3 Communications 79

Lockheed Martin 81

Northrop Grumman 83

Raytheon 85

Demographic Outlook 87
Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 88
Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 88
Table: The United States' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 89
Table: The United States' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 90

BMI Methodology 91

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 91

Defence Industry 91

Sources 92


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