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India Smart Grid: Market Forecast (2017-2027)

  • ID: 4084985
  • Report
  • February 2017
  • Region: India
  • 230 Pages
  • Northeast Group, LLC
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India is projected to invest $44.9bn in smart metering, distribution automation, battery storage and other smart grid market segments over the next decade. This investment will help to reduce the country's staggering 22.7% transmission and distribution loss rate.

India represents what is arguably the best smart grid market opportunity among all emerging market countries. It has the second largest electricity customer market size in the world. Unlike China, which has the largest, the Indian market will be open to international vendors, as stated in the central government’s smart grid development strategy. This will create very significant market opportunities for the leading global players. Vendors from across Europe, North America, and Asia have already participated in small-scale pilots and grid upgrade projects, and have been linked with announcements of large-scale rollouts by Indian utilities that are upcoming in the next several years.  

India has power sector market conditions that will require significant smart grid infrastructure investment. It has one of the highest transmission and distribution (T&D) loss rates in the world. In some states, the T&D loss rates exceed 50%, and almost all states have loss rates above 15%. Most Indian utilities fail to achieve cost recovery, and smart grid investment will be an important tool for utilities to reduce losses and improve revenue collection and operational efficiency.

The Indian central government has taken several measures to support smart grid development, including financial revitalization programs for utilities, the establishment of a central smart grid agency, and the publication of recommended financing strategies for early deployments.

With strong drivers and a willing government, the medium-to-long term smart grid opportunities in India are enormous. In the near term, the environment may be more challenging. India’s power sector is fragmented and complicated. As in the United States, each state has its own regulatory commission. Industry structure and regulations can vary widely in India from state to state. Understanding the dynamics of each state will be critical to participating in this market.

Overall, India is one of the most unique smart grid markets in the world. It combines enormous market potential and a high GDP growth rate with complex regulatory structures and low per-capita income. Challenges are certain to persist, but the government’s commitment to addressing India’s significant power sector challenges by investing in smart grid infrastructure ensures strong market growth throughout the coming decade.

Key questions answered in this study: 

  • How large will the smart grid market be across India over the next decade?
  • What policies is the Government of India pursuing to support smart grid development?
  • How will investment opportunities differ across various state regulatory frameworks?
  • How will smart grid projects be financed in the near-to-medium term in India?
  • How will rapid renewable energy expansion impact smart grid investment?
  • Who are the most active local and international vendors in the India market?

Deliverables: 230-page PDF copy of the study, executive summary PowerPoint and Excel dataset.

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i. Executive summary

1. What’s new in 2017?

2. India smart grid snapshot
2.1 India in comparison
2.2 Smart grid drivers
2.3 Smart grid challenges

3. India smart grid market forecast

4. Industry structure
4.1 Generation   
4.2 Transmission       
4.3 Distribution   
4.4 Power sector regulatory bodies 

5. Smart grid regulatory framework

6. Maharashtra
6.1 Electricity industry structure
6.2 Smart grid regulatory environment      
6.3 Drivers and barriers 
6.4 Utility activity  

7. Karnataka
7.1 Electricity industry structure 
7.2 Smart grid regulatory environment      
7.3 Drivers and barriers    
7.4 Utility activity   

8. Delhi
8.1 Electricity industry structure 
8.2 Smart grid regulatory environment      
8.3 Drivers and barriers  
8.4 Utility activity   

9. Gujarat
9.1 Electricity industry structure 
9.2 Smart grid regulatory environment       
9.3 Drivers and barriers  
9.4 Utility activity    130 

10. West Bengal
10.1 Electricity industry structure 
10.2 Smart grid regulatory environment      
10.3 Drivers and barriers  
10.4 Utility activity   

11. Tamil Nadu
11.1 Electricity industry structure 
11.2 Smart grid regulatory environment      
11.3 Drivers and barriers  
11.4 Utility activity   

12. Kerala
12.1 Electricity industry structure 
12.2 Smart grid regulatory environment      
12.3 Drivers and barriers  
12.4 Utility activity   

13. Other Indian states and territories 
13.1 Market drivers and barriers 
13.2 Activity in other states and territories in India 
13.2.1 Joint union territories  
13.2.2 Rajasthan   
13.2.3 Andhra Pradesh  
13.2.4 Uttar Pradesh   
13.2.5 Bihar    
13.2.6 Rest of the country  

14. Vendor activity  
14.1 Domestic vendors 
14.2 International vendors active in smart grid in India 

15. Appendix
15.1 Methodology  
15.2 Smart grid overview 
15.3 Global smart grid activity
15.4 List of acronyms and companies covered in this study

List of Figures, Boxes, and Tables:
 
India smart grid: key takeaways
Newest developments
India’s 15 largest distribution utilities
India T&D loss rates
Total customer size of Indian states
T&D loss rates and smart grid activity in Indian states
T&D losses and consumption at India’s largest distribution utilities
Goals of India’s smart grid roadmap
India’s smart grid targets and progress
India cumulative smart grid forecast
India cumulative smart grid forecast data
Box 1.1: National Smart Grid Mission scope of duties
Figure 1.1: National Smart Grid Mission projects
Table 1.1: Status of NSGM AMI pilot projects
Box 1.2: Bureau of Indian Standards smart meter specifications
Table 1.2: Communications technology under consideration
Figure 1.2: India smart meter trajectory
Box 1.3: India Smart Grid Forum recommended procurement strategy
Figure 1.3: Leasing and services model
Figure 1.4: States participating in UDAY program
Table 1.3: Large-scale NSGM projects
Table 1.4: Smart grid pilot projects outside of NSGM 
Figure 1.5: Approved renewable energy policies in India 
Table 1.5: Renewable energy state policies passed 2015-16 
Figure 1.6: Planned renewable energy capacity additions 
Figure 1.7: Comparison to 2015 forecast 
Figure 2.1: Emerging markets smart meter potential
Figure 2.2: Per-capita electricity consumption
Figure 2.3: Per-capita CO2 emissions
Figure 2.4: Projected GDP growth (2017 – 2021)
Figure 2.5: T&D losses in India
Figure 2.6: Net profits of state utilities in India
Figure 2.7: T&D loss rates and smart grid activity in Indian states
Figure 2.8: Smart grid regulatory drivers in India
Figure 2.9: Total electricity demand growth in India
Figure 2.10: Solar and wind resources in India
Table 2.1: Distribution franchises in India
Table 2.2: Status of NSGM AMI pilot projects
Figure 2.11: Per-capita electricity consumption by state in India
Figure 2.12: Costs of AMI deployments per kWh
Figure 2.13: Power sector spending in India to 2
Table 2.3: Other smart grid pilot projects in India
Figure 3.1: India AMI penetration rate
Figure 3.2: India cumulative smart grid forecast
Table 3.1: India cumulative smart grid forecast data
Figure 3.3: Annual AMI deployments in India
Figure 3.4: Comparison of local and internationally made AMI meter costs
Figure 3.5: RF-based AMI cost breakdown
Figure 3.6: AMI forecast by segment
Table 3.2: AMI forecast data by segment
Figure 3.7: DA forecast by segment
Table 3.3: DA forecast data by segment
Figure 3.8: HEM forecast by segment
Table 3.4: HEM forecast data by segment
Figure 3.9: IT forecast by segment
Table 3.5: IT forecast data by segment
Table 4.1: Ownership and control in India’s electricity sector
Figure 4.1: Generation in India
Table 4.2: Utilities and regulators in India by state
Figure 4.2: Growth in transmission networks in India
Figure 4.3: Regulation of India’s transmission sector
Figure 4.4: Regional transmission grids in India
Figure 4.5: T&D losses and consumption at India’s largest distribution utilities
Figure 4.5: Map of distribution franchises in India
Table 4.3: Main utilities in India
Table 4.4: Distribution franchise models
Table 4.5: Key elements of the Electricity Act of 2
Figure 5.1: National Smart Grid Mission scope of duties
Figure 5.2: Government of India smart grid organizational structure
Table 5.1: Status of NSGM AMI pilot projects
Figure 5.3: National Smart Grid Mission projects
Table 5.2: Large-scale NSGM pilot projects
Figure 5.4: Leasing and services model
Figure 5.5: India Smart Grid Forum recommended procurement strategy
Figure 5.6: States participating in UDAY program
Box 5.1: Political risk in India
Table 5.3: R-APDRP
Table 5.4: India smart grid roadmap
Table 5.5: Solar potential by state in India 
Table 6.1: Maharashtra key data
Table 6.2: Smart grid indicators in Maharashtra
Figure 6.1: Maharashtra electricity generation statistics
Table 6.3: Main utilities in Maharashtra
Figure 6.2: Distribution franchising in Maharashtra
Figure 6.3: T&D loss comparison in Maharashtra
Table 6.4: Smart grid projects in Maharashtra
Table 7.1: Karnataka key data
Table 7.2: Smart grid indicators in Karnataka
Figure 7.1: Karnataka electricity generation statistics
Table 7.3: Main distribution utilities in Karnataka
Figure 7.2: Karnataka smart grid regulations
Figure 7.3: Karnataka solar policy
Figure 7.4: T&D loss comparison in Karnataka
Figure 7.5: Karnataka smart grid projects
Table 8.1: Delhi key data
Table 8.2: Smart grid indicators in Delhi
Figure 8.1: Delhi electricity generation statistics
Table 8.3: Main distribution utilities in Delhi
Figure 8.2: Evolution of T&D losses in Delhi
Figure 8.3: T&D loss comparison in Delhi
Figure 8.4: Tariff and T&D loss rates in metropolitan India
Figure 8.5: TPDDL smart grid activity
Table 9.1: Gujarat key data
Table 9.2: Smart grid indicators in Gujarat
Figure 9.1: Gujarat electricity generation statistics
Table 9.3: Main distribution utilities in Gujarat
Figure 9.2: ADB support for power sector projects in Gujarat
Figure 9.3: T&D loss comparison in Gujarat
Figure 9.4: Smart grid drivers in Gujarat
Table 10.1: West Bengal key data
Table 10.2: Smart grid indicators in West Bengal
Figure 10.1: West Bengal electricity generation statistics
Table 10.3: Main distribution utilities in West Bengal
Figure 10.2: Annual growth rate of key electricity metrics in West Bengal
Figure 10.3: Contributing factors to West Bengal’s strong utility performance
Table 10.4: Electrification progress in West Bengal
Figure 10.4: Electrification programs in West Bengal
Figure 10.5: T&D loss comparison in West Bengal
Figure 10.6: Smart grid activity in West Bengal
Table 11.1: Tamil Nadu key data
Table 11.2: Smart grid indicators in Tamil Nadu
Figure 11.1: Tamil Nadu electricity generation statistics
Figure 11.2: India’s Green Energy Corridor project
Figure 11.3: State distribution losses due to underpricing
Figure 11.4: Tamil Nadu smart grid plan
Figure 11.5: Renewable energy in Tamil Nadu
Figure 11.6: T&D loss comparison in Tamil Nadu
Figure 11.7: 1.5 million meter replacement tender in Tamil Nadu
Table 12.1: Kerala key data
Table 12.2: Smart grid indicators in Kerala
Figure 12.1: Kerala electricity generation statistics
Figure 12.2: Annual capital outlay in Kerala
Figure 12.3: Renewable energy policies in Kerala
Figure 12.4: T&D loss comparison in Kerala
Figure 12.5: Annual per-capita consumption in key states
Table 13.1: Key data for other main states in India
Table 13.2: Smart grid pilot projects in other Indian states
Table 13.2: Large-scale pilot projects in other Indian states
Figure 13.1: Population, market size, and electrification rates of largest Indian states
Table 13.3: Key data for Joint Union Territories and Goa
Figure 13.2: Solar potential in Rajasthan versus rest of India
Figure 13.3: Separation of utilities in Andhra Pradesh
Figure 13.4: Smart grid drivers in Andhra Pradesh
Figure 13.5: States with highest T&D losses in India
Table 13.4: States not covered in depth in this study
Figure 14.2: Leading smart grid vendors in India
Table 14.1: Other leading Indian smart grid vendors
Figure 14.2: Other leading international smart grid vendors in India
Figure 15.1: Smart grid value chain
Figure 15.2: Smart grid model highlighting focus in India
Figure 15.3: Global smart grid activity
Figure 15.4: Cumulative smart grid spending from 2017 – 2017 by region
Figure 15.5: Annual smart grid and AMI investment by region in 2027
Table 15.1: Global smart grid drivers and activity

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