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3Q08 Canada Mobile Forecast, 2008 ? 2010
IE Market Research Corp., July 2008
Rogers Wireless is in a better strategic position among incumbent operators in the lead-up to increased competition
This Mobile Forecast on Canada provides over 65 operational and financial metrics for the Canada wireless market. We cover quarterly historical data starting in 1Q2004 and ending in 1Q2008. We also provide four-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2010. Operators covered for Canada include: Bell Mobility, Rogers Wireless (incl. Microcell), Telus Mobility, MTS, and Other Bell Affiliates. Our Mobile Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
Notable highlights of the 3Q08 Canada Mobile Forecast include:
- Given in-line Q1.08 subscriber numbers, we are now forecasting the wireless penetration level in Canada to be 71.1% in 2010 (compared to our previous forecast of 71.4%). Total subscribers in Canada are forecasted to increase from 20.0 million in 2008 to 24.4 million in 2010.
- Given the success of the spectrum auction and the entry of new players, we are now forecasting a slight decline in market shares among the incumbent operators on Canada. While we do not provide a forecast for Bell Mobility, we think that it’s current 31% market share is the most vulnerable to erosion by new entrants. We continue to view Rogers Wireless as the strongest incumbent wireless operator and expect its market share to be 36.5% of subscribers in 2010 (previously 37%).
- Monthly churn rates will continue to be similar across different operators and they will stay in the range of 1.5% - 1.6%.
- We forecast that Rogers Wireless will receive the highest ARPU among other wireless operators in 2010 at US$ 65.26 per month (previously, our estimate was US$ 62.31 for Rogers). Rogers Wireless will also have the highest MOU per subscriber at 714 minutes per month in 2010.
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