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Iran Commercial Banking Report Q1 2009 - Product Image

Iran Commercial Banking Report Q1 2009

  • Published: March 2009
  • Region: Iran
  • 56 Pages
  • Business Monitor International

BMI's Iran Commercial Banking Report provides independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Iran's commercial banking industry.

The coming year will be a tough one for Iran. Economic growth will slow, mirroring the slowdown in all the major economies of the world, and we now see real GDP growth in 2009-2010 (note: Iranian years begin in March) falling to just 2.4%, down from 4.7% in 2008-2009. While we are not expecting Iran to fall into recession, our projected growth rate would be the most lacklustre in a decade. Thereafter, growth will begin to pick up again, in line with a slow recovery in the global economy, and over the course of the forecast period (2009-2010 to 2013-2014) we expect growth to average 3.6%. This is substantially below an estimated 5.6% average growth rate over the previous five years, when economic expansion was driven in large part by the oil boom. We also see gross fixed capital formation growth slowing to 2.5% in 2009-2010, down from over 6% the previous two years. Domestic liquidity will be impacted by fewer petrodollars entering the banking system, leading to a slowdown in lending to businesses.

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Executive Summary
Table: Levels, At December 31 (IRRbn)
Table: Levels, At December 31 (US$bn)
Table: Levels At December 31 2007
Table: Average Annual Growth Rate Projections, 2008-2013 (%)
Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In Q208
Table: Projected Levels (IRRbn)
Table: Projected Levels (US$bn)
Key Issues
Iran Commercial Banking SWOT
Iran Political SWOT
Iran Economic SWOT
Iran Business Environment SWOT
Changes To The Commercial Banking Report
The Global Financial Crisis – Continued
Table: Selected European Countries – Projected Budget And Current Account, 2008 (as % of GDP
New Information From 2Q09
Islamic Finance – Quo Vadis?
Introduction
(Some) Hard Numbers
Some More Hard Numbers
Under-Recognised Challenges
The Global Financial Crisis
What Really Matters: Indicators To Watch In 2009
Conclusion
Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating
Table: Iran’s Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
Table: Middle East And Africa Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings
Bank Lending
Lending Overview
Table: Lending Overview (IRRbn)
Total Assets, Client Loans And Client Deposits
Table: Comparison Of Total Assets, Client Loans And Client Deposits (US$bn)
Per-Capita Deposits
Table: Comparison Of Per-Capita Deposits, Late 2007
Country Update
Macroeconomic Trends And Developments
Table: Iran – Economic Activity
Political Outlook
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Average Annual Growth Rate Projections, 2008-2013 (%)
Table: Projected Levels (IRRbn
Table: Projected Levels (US$bn)
Comment On Developments Over 2007
Comment On Forecasts
Comment On Trends and Ratios
Table: Comparison Of Loan/Deposit, Loan/Asset And Loan/GDP Ratios, Late 2007/Early 2008
Banks’ Bond Portfolios
Table: Bond Portfolios, Late 2007
Competitive Landscape And Protagonists
Methodology
Basis Of Projections
Commercial Bank Business Environment Rating
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Indicators And Rationale
Table: Weighting Of Indicators

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