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Brazil Retail Report Q3 2009
Business Monitor International, July 2009, Pages: 55
The Brazil Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Brazil's retail industry
The Brazil Retail report predicts that the country’s retail sales will grow from around US$368bn in 2008 to US$573bn by 2013. Generally positive trends in underlying economic growth, an enormous and growing population and rising disposable income are key factors behind the forecast growth in Brazil’s retail sales. Easier access to credit and the emergence of a wealthier middle class are also likely to see the value of the retail segment increase during the forecast period. Brazil’s nominal GDP was US$1,573.47bn in 2008, with a decline of 0.6% now assumed for 2009 as the economy goes into reverse. Average annual GDP growth of 2.8% is now predicted between 2008 and 2013.
With the population increasing from 192mn in 2008 to an estimated 204mn by 2013, GDP per capita is forecast to rise 39.7% by the end of the forecast period, reaching US$11,449. Our assumption of consumer spending per capita is for an increase from US$7,219 in 2008 to US$9,275 by 2013. The national monthly minimum wage rose 26% in real terms between 2003 and 2006, and by 2008 the average annual salary had reached US$9,160. The lifestyles of middle- and upper-income groups increasingly mirror those of their counterparts in developed countries and overall purchasing power has been increasing. However, income inequality is a major concern, with consumption patterns varying significantly according to salary. More than one-third of the population lives on or below the poverty line, and outside the main urban areas the proportion is closer to half.
In 2005, 67.8% of the Brazilian population was described by the UN as active, with 40.3% in the crucial 20-44 age range. More than 84% of the population was classified by the UN as urban. By 2015, the urban population is forecast to have exceeded 88%, with 39.5% in the 20-44 age band, with 66.9% of the population is expected to be active.
The non-grocery sector is outperforming the food sector as consumers increase their spending on household items and durable goods such as furniture, domestic appliances, cars and clothes. Easier access to credit is also proving good news for the retail sector. There were 73mn credit cards in Brazil in the first half of 2006, up 20% from H105, according the Brazilian Association of Credit Card and Services Companies (ABEC). This figure was projected to exceed 80mn in 2007.
Retail sub-sectors that are expected to show strong growth over the forecast period include food and drink, with sales forecast to rise from US$161.54bn in 2008 to US$253.66bn by 2013, an increase of 57.0%. Over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceutical sales are predicted to rise from US$4.85bn in 2008 to US$8.15bn by 2013 (+68.0%), with autos sales up 35.8% during the same period to an estimated US$205.35bn. The consumer electronics sector, meanwhile, is predicted to grow by 46.4%, from US$19.29bn in 2008 to US$28.24bn by 2013.
Retail sales for our universe of Latin American countries in 2008 amounted to an estimated US$1,654bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region based on BMI’s macroeconomic database totals US$2,630bn. Argentina, Brazil and Mexico together in 2008 accounted for an estimated 76.8% of regional retail sales, with their combined share expected to slip to 76.1% by 2013. For Brazil, the estimated 2008 market share of 22.2% is expected to rise to 25.7% by 2013.
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