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2Q09 Italy Mobile Operator Forecast, 2008 – 2013
IE Market Research Corp., June 2009
Total wireless subscribers in Italy to reach 91.8 million with TIM and Vodafone losing market shares to Wind and Hutchison over the next five years
Mobile Operator Forecast on Italy provides over 65 operational and financial metrics for Italy’s wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide six-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 4Q2013. Operators covered for Italy include: TIM, Vodafone, Wind, and 3 (Hutchison). Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers up to 65 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Italian operators experience slowdown in subscriber growth
+1.2% industry average subscriber growth in 4Q.2008
ARPU growth is improving in Italy, but still in negative territory
-1.4% industry average ARPU growth in 4Q.2008
Minutes of Use per Subscriber are increasing
+5.6% operator-wide average MOU growth in 4Q.2008
TIM enjoys positive EBITDA growth
+5.4% industry average EBITDA growth in 4Q.2008
So what is IEMR’s Forecast?
Total subscriber accounts in Italy to reach 91.8 million in 2013
- We forecast that total subscriber accounts in Italy will increase from 90.5 million in 2008 to 91.8 million in 2013.
- TIM will continue to be the largest wireless carrier in the country over the next five years, but we expect that TIM's subscriber base will decline from 34.8 million in 2008 to 33.9 million in 2013.
- Vodafone will be the second largest mobile operator with 30.2 million subscriber accounts in 2013. Wind will be the third with 17.71 million in 2013, according to our model.
TIM's market share to decline over the next five years
- Our model predicts that TIM’s subscriber market share will decline from 38.5% in 2008 to 37.0% in 2013.
- Also, we expect that Vodafone will see its market share decline from 33.2% in 2008 to 32.9% in 2013.
- On the other hand, we forecast that Wind's market share will increase from 18.7% to 19.3%, and 3 (Hutchison)'s share will rise from 9.7% to 10.2% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
ARPU levels in Italy will be falling from 2009 to 2013
- Our forecasting model predicts that the average ARPU in Italy will decline from €20.51 in 2008 to €18.41 in 2013.
- We expect that monthly ARPUs at Vodafone and Wind will be declining over the next five years to reach €18.14 and €17.30, respectively in 2013.
- However, we forecast that TIM's monthly ARPU will increase from €20.14 in 2008 to €23.95 in 2013. We also predict that 3 (Hutchison)'s monthly ARPU will rise from €18.92 in 2008 to €19.75 in 2013.
Vodafone's EBITDA margin will be deteriorating over the next five years
- We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will decline over the next several years from 42.0% in 2008 to 37.5% in 2013. In particular, we expect that Vodafone's EBITDA margin will decline significantly from 45.9% in 2008 to 37.4% in 2013.
- Wind's EBITDA margin will also decline from 45.4% to 44.7% while TIM's EBITDA margin increases from 44.7% to 46.1% over the forecast period, 2008-2013.
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