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Libya Oil and Gas Report Q1 2010
Business Monitor International, Dec 2009, Pages: 72
Business Monitor International's Libya Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Libya's oil and gas industry.
The latest Libya Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 7.76% of African regional oil demand by 2014, while providing 16.77% of supply. African regional oil use of 2.98mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2001 rose to an estimated 3.60mn b/d in 2009. It should average 3.66mn b/d in 2010 and then rise to around 4.13mn b/d by 2014. Regional oil production was 7.84mn b/d in 2001, and in 2009 averaged an estimated 9.79mn b/d. It is set to rise to 12.52mn b/d by 2014. Oil exports are growing steadily, because demand growth is lagging the pace of supply expansion. In 2001, the region was exporting an average 4.86mn b/d. This total had risen to an estimated 6.19mn b/d in 2009 and is forecast to reach 8.40mn b/d by 2014. Angola has the greatest production growth potential, with Nigerian exports set to soar if it can resolve recent quasi-political issues.
In terms of natural gas, the region in 2009 consumed an estimated 124bn cubic metres (bcm), with demand of 191bcm targeted for 2014. Production of an estimated 248bcm in 2009 should reach 385bcm in 2014, which implies net exports rising from 124bcm in 2009 to 193bcm by the end of the period. In 2009, Libya consumed an estimated 5.41% of the region’s gas, with its market share forecast at 4.13% by 2014. It contributed 7.27% to estimated 2009 regional gas production and by 2014 will account for 9.10% of supply.
For 2009 as a whole, the publisher has assumed an average OPEC basket price of US$59.00 per barrel (bbl), a 37.3% decline year-on-year (y-o-y). This represents an upgrade from the US$55.00/bbl forecast the publisher was using in the previous quarter. For 2010, the publisher expects to see a significant oil price recovery to US$83.00/bbl for the OPEC basket price, gaining further ground to US$85.00/bbl in 2011 and to US$90.00/bbl in 2012 and beyond.
For 2009, BMI has assumed a global average gasoline price of US$67.46/bbl, with the fuel having peaked in June at almost US$80.00/bbl. The overall y-o-y fall in 2009 gasoline prices is put at 33.7%. The BMI gasoil forecast is for an average price of US$70.59/bbl, assuming a monthly high above US$94/bbl in December 2009. The full-year outturn represents a 41.8% y-o-y fall. The annual jet price level for 2009 is estimated at US$68.45/bbl. This compares with US$124.95/bbl in 2008. The 2009 average naphtha price is put by BMI at US$52.66/bbl, down 39.7% from the previous year’s level. Libyan real GDP is estimated by BMI to have fallen by 1.3% in 2009, compared with 4.8% growth in 2008. They are assuming average annual growth of 6.5% in 2010-2014. The publisher expects oil demand to rise from an estimated 274,000b/d in 2009 to 320,000b/d in 2014. State-owned National Oil Corporation (NOC) accounts for some 40% of oil production and all gas production, but it has a growing number of international oil company (IOC) partners contributing to a forecast rise in oil production from an estimated 1.71mn b/d in 2009 to 2.10mn b/d by 2014. The state itself has far more ambitious volume goals that may be frustrated by OPEC quota policy. Gas production should reach 35.0bcm by 2014, up from an estimated 18.0bcm in 2009. Consumption is expected to rise from around 6.7bcm to 7.9bcm by the end of the forecast period, allowing exports of 27.1bcm.
Between 2009 and 2019, the publisher is forecasting an increase in Libyan oil and gas liquids production of 46.2%, with volumes rising steadily to 2.50mn b/d by the end of the 10-year forecast period. Oil consumption between 2009 and 2019 is set to increase by 42.4%, with growth slowing to an assumed 4.0% per annum towards the end of the period and the country using 390,000b/d by 2019. Gas production is expected to rise to 55bcm by the end of the period. With demand rising by 43.8% between 2009 and 2019, there should be export potential increasing to around 45bcm, via pipeline and in the form of LNG. Details of BMI’s 10-year forecasts can be found in the appendix to this report.
Libya continues to occupy first place, above Nigeria, Angola and Gabon, in BMI’s updated Upstream Business Environment rating, with a comfortable margin over its nearest rival of three points. The country’s score benefits from its proven oil reserves and a region-topping oil reserves-to-production ratio (RPR). The competitive landscape features numerous non-state companies, while licensing terms are generally good. However, country risk factors undermine some of the hydrocarbons-specific strength. The country is in the middle of the league table in BMI’s Downstream Business Environment rating, with a few high scores but near-term progress up the rankings unlikely. It is ranked equal fifth with Angola thanks to poor country risk factors, a largely state-controlled industry and moderate oil and gas demand growth prospects.
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