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3Q09 Hong Kong Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 - 2013
IE Market Research Corp., Oct 2009, Pages: 118
Total wireless subscribers in Hong Kong will rise to 14.3 million in 2013 with PCCW's market share increasing to 17.0%
Mobile Operator Forecast on Hong Kong provides over 50 operational and financial metrics for Hong Kong’s wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide five-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 1Q2011. Operators covered for Hong Kong include: CSL Limited/New World Mobility Limited, Hutchison Telecommunications HK Hld Ltd, SmarTone Telecommunications Holdings Ltd, and PCCW Limited. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers 50 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Executive Summary
Subscriber growth is slowing down in Hong Kong's mobile operator space
+6.4% industry average subscriber growth in 1Q.2009
Negative ARPU growth continues in Hong Kong
-4.7% industry average ARPU growth in 1Q.2009
CSL/New World and SmarTone had negative EBITDA growth in the latest quarter
-3.6% industry average EBITDA growth in 1Q.2009
So what is Forecast?
Total mobile subscriber accounts in Hong Kong to reach 14.3 million in 2013
- Given the latest quarter numbers, our model forecasts that total wireless subscribers in Hong Kong will increase from 9.8 million in 2008 to 14.3 million in 2013.
- We expect that Hutchison will have 3.6 million subscribers and PCCW will have 2.4 million subscribers by the end of 2013.
PCCW's market share will increase over the next five years
- Our model predicts that PCCW's subscriber market share will increase from 13.4% in 2008 to 17.0% in 2013.
- On the other hand, we expect that SmarTone will see its market share decline from 11.6% in 2008 to 8.9% in 2013.
- We forecast that Hutchison's share of total subscribers will be stable at approximately 25.4% from 2009 to 2013.
SmarTone's monthly ARPU will be declining from 2009 to 2013
- We forecast that the industry average monthly ARPU level will remain in the range of HK$ 158 - HK$ 159 over the next several years.
- We are predicting that SmarTone will see its monthly ARPU decrease from HK$ 232 in 2008 to HK$ 201 in 2013.
EBITDA margins will be declining slightly in Hong Kong's mobile operator space
- We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will decline from 27.7% in 2008 to 25.5% in 2013.
- According to our model, Hutchison's EBITDA margin will fall from 32.7% to 28.2% and CSL/New World's EBITDA margin will decline from 28.5% to 25.0% over the forecast period, 2008 - 2013.
Also available
4Q09 Hong Kong Mobile Operator Forecast, 2009 ? 2013
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