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2Q09 Russia Mobile Operator Forecast, 2008 - 2013
IE Market Research Corp., May 2009
Total subscribers in Russia to reach 201.8 million in 2013 with MTS losing market share to Vimpelcom and Megafon over the next five years
Mobile Operator Forecast on Russia provides over 65 operational and financial metrics for Russia’s wireless market and is one of the best forecasts in the industry. We provide six-year forecasts at the operator level going out to 2013. We also provide quarterly historical and forecast data starting in 1Q2003 and ending in 4Q2013. Operators covered for Russia include: MTS, VimpelCom, and MegaFon. Our Mobile Operator Forecasts are updated quarterly and are available for one-time delivery or through regular updates.
Global Mobile Operator Forecast covers up to 65 operational metrics of 200+ mobile operators in 50+ countries, making up 80% of the world’s population. Our forecasts are based on our proprietary, country-specific forecasting models. These models deploy multiple regression analysis and cross-impact matrices that estimate relationships between subscriber data, technology use and deployment data, overall economic and demographic changes expected in a particular country; and relate these to company operational and financial metrics.
Executive Summary
Subscriber growth is slowing down in Russia's mobile operator space
+8.7% industry-average subscriber growth in 4Q.2008
Positive ARPU growth continues in Russia
+4.5% industry-average ARPU growth in 4Q.2008
Minutes of Use per Subscriber are increasing but at a decreasing rate
The industry average MOU/Sub growth of +12.4% in 4Q.2008
Operators continue to enjoy double-digit EBITDA growth rates
+21.6% industry-average EBITDA growth in 4Q.2008
So what is IEMR’s Forecast?
Total subscribers to reach 201.8 million in 2013
- We forecast that total subscribers in Russia will increase from 187.8 million in 2008 to 201.8 million in 2013.
- MTS will continue to be the largest mobile operator in Russia. Our model predicts that MTS's number of subscribers will change from 64.6 million accounts in 2008 to 65.7 million accounts in 2013.
- We expect that, by the end of 2013, VimpelCom will have 53.3 million subscribers while Megafon will have 47.2 million subscribers.
MTS's market share to decline over the next five years
- Our model predicts that MTS will see its market share decrease from 34.4% in 2008 to 32.6% in 2013
- In comparison, VimpelCom's market share will increase from 25.4% in 2008 to 26.4% in 2013.
- We expect that MegaFon's market share will remain at approximately 23.4% over the next five years.
- The rest of the market will be taken by other smaller operators in Russia.
ARPU levels in Russia will be falling from 2009 to 2013
- Our forecasting model predicts that VimpelCom and MegaFon will be decreasing their ARPU levels over the next five years.
- We forecast that VimpelCom's ARPU will fall from RUB 328 in 2008 to RUB 295 in 2013.
- In comparison, we expect MTS to receive ARPU of RUB 275 per month in 2013, up from RUB 244 in 2008.
Profitability of Russian operators will improve over the next several years
- We forecast that the industry average EBITDA margin (calculated as EBITDA/reported revenue) will be 40.8% in 2013, up from 31.5% in 2008.
- Our model forecasts that MTS, the largest operator, will see its EBITDA margin increase from 50.1% in 2008 to 52.9% in 2013.
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