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Saudi Arabia Retail Report Q4 2009
Business Monitor International, Oct 2009, Pages: 52
Saudi Arabia Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Saudi Arabia's retail industry.
The Q409 Saudi Arabia Retail Report forecasts that the country’s retail sales will grow from about US$76bn in 2008 to US$97bn by 2013. Key factors behind the forecast growth in Saudi Arabia’s retail sales are: strong underlying economic growth, rising disposable incomes, increasing acceptance of the concept of modern retailing, a youthful population and an enlarged consumer base created by the improved position of women in society.
Saudi Arabia’s nominal GDP was US$489.69bn in 2008, with growth slowing to an estimated 0.5% in 2009 as the economy is hit by the global economic downturn. Average annual GDP growth of 3.0% is now predicted between 2008 and 2013. With the population increasing from 24.4mn in 2008 to an estimated 26.5mn by 2013, consumer spending per capita is predicted to rise by more than 24% by the end of the forecast period, reaching US$5,246.
The retail sector benefits from the large number of Muslim tourists visiting the country to take part in the hajj and umrah pilgrimages every year. Sales of gifts and souvenirs in 2008 were estimated to have risen by at least SAR4bn (US$1.1bn) due to shopping by hajj pilgrims, according to a Gulf News report. Increasing urbanisation is also driving retail sales. In 2005, nearly 89% of the population was classified by the UN as urban, and this is forecast to increase to more than 90% by 2010. The UN also described more than 57% of the population as economically active in 2005, with this proportion forecast to exceed 59% by 2010 and 66% by 2015. About 38% of the population were in the crucial (for retail sales) 20-44 age range in 2005, and the UN forecasts that this will rise to about 46% by 2015.
San Francisco-based Gap is among the latest international retailers to enter the market. It plans to open 44 Gap stores (and variations) and 10 Banana Republic stores in Saudi Arabia by 2012.
Retail sub-sectors that are predicted to show strong growth over the forecast period include over the-counter (OTC) pharmaceuticals, with sales expected to increase by more than 59%, from US$0.32bn in 2008 to US$0.51bn by 2013. Automotive sales are forecast to rise by more than 51% during the forecast period, from US$16.57bn to US$25.05bn; while sales of consumer electronics are predicted to increase from US$3.65bn in 2008 to US$4.75bn by the end of the forecast period, a rise of more than 30%.
Retail sales for our set of Middle East and Africa (MEA) countries in 2008 amounted to an estimated US$382bn, based on the varying national definitions. Total consumer spending for the region based on the macroeconomic database amounts to US$660.41bn. In 2008, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Saudi Arabia, Egypt and South Africa together accounted for an estimated 79.8% of regional retail sales, and their combined share is expected to rise to 80.7% by 2013. For Saudi Arabia, the estimated 2008 market share of 19.9% is expected to decrease to 17.2% by 2013.
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