China's Fertilizer Market Analysis and Forecast Report 2011-2012
Beijing Shennong Kexin Agribusiness Consulting Co.,Ltd, February 2012, Pages: 135
In this report, our team will analyze the changed features of N-fertilizer and K-fertilizer in 2011 according to the policies related to fertilizer industry, supply-demand, trade and the prices of upstream products (eg. sulfur, coal, synthetic ammonia, phosphate rock), and then analyze supply-demand, consumption, trade, enterprises distribution, production costs and market prices of the major fertilizer varieties in 2011; at last, our team will analyze supply-demand of fertilizer and forecast market changes in 2012 according to supply-demand balance sheet of N-fertilizer, urea, P-fertilizer and K-fertilizer.
Clear views, detailed and accurate data will be shown in this report as a reference for related subjects of the market.
2011 fertilizer markets showed the following changes:
(1) Chinese N-fertilizer and P-fertilizer output were lower than that in 2010, however K-fertilizer output increased by 0.8% compared with 2010; although the new added capacity of complex fertilizer saw small growth, yet the output in 2011 was still a bit more than that of 2010.
(2) The export volume of urea, ammonium phosphate and compound fertilizer kept stable with some decline, while, the export volume of NP compound fertilizer, ammonium sulfate and TSP increased rapidly thanks to low-tariff or zero-tariff.
(3) The domestic fertilizer demand kept on increasing in 2011, but the growth dropped compared with 2010.
(4) The production costs of fertilizer increased compared with 2010, of which Map and DAP witnessed the largest increase of 29.5% and 29.1% separately; followed by SOP with an increase of18.8%.
RESEARCH BACKGROUND
PART ONE: RELATED POLICIES ANALYSIS OF 2011 CHINA'S FERTILIZER INDUSTRY
1.1 Import and Export Policies Had Great Influence on Fertilizer Import and Export Volume
1.2 N-Fertilizer Output Lower Than 2010 with the Strengthening of Energy Saving and Emission Reduction Policy
1.3 Restrictions on Phosphorite in Main Producing Areas
1.4 Fertilizer Off-season Commercial Reserve Management and Regulation Were Weakening
1.5 Changes in Upstream and Downstream Industry Policies of Fertilizer and Their Effects on Fertilizer Industry
1.5.1 Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi Coal Resources Integration in 2011
1.5.2 Natural Gas Pricing Mechanism is Gradually Formed
1.5.3 Direct Subsidy Policy for Agricultural Materials has Little Impact on Promoting Farmers to Increase Fertilizer Input Costs
1.5.4 Soil Testing and Formulated Fertilization Project
PART TWO: MARKET ANALYSIS ON UPSTREAM PRODUCTS OF 2011 CHINA'S FERTILIZER
2.1 China's Coal and Natural Gas Market
2.1.1 China's Energy Structure
2.1.2 China's Anthracite Market
2.1.2.1 An Increase in Anthracite Demand for Fertilizer
2.1.2.2 Slight Growth in Anthracite Prices
2.1.3 Gradual Increase in Prices of Natural Gas for Fertilizer
2.2 Synthetic Ammonia Market
2.2.1 Synthetic Ammonia Output was 50.751 Million MT
2.2.2 Major Synthetic Ammonia Producing Provinces: Shandong, Henan, Sichuan
2.2.3 Synthetic Ammonia Import and Export
2.2.3.1 Synthetic Ammonia Import Volume down 34.6% Year on Year
2.2.3.2 Synthetic Ammonia Export down to 510 MT
2.2.4 Annual Average Price of Synthetic Ammonia up 16.0% Year on Year
2.3 Sulfur and Sulfuric Acid Market
2.3.1 Sulfuric Acid Output up to 73.723 Million MT
2.3.2 Concentration of Sulfuric Acid Production Area
2.3.3 Sulfur Imports Lower than 2010
2.3.4 Annual Average Price of Sulfur 41.3% Higher than 2010
2.4 Phosphate Rock Market
2.4.1 Phosphate Rock Output up to80.659 Million MT
2.4.2 Phosphate Rock Production Area is Concentrated in Yunnan, Hubei, etc
2.4.3 Phosphate Rock Exports down to 0.635 Million MT
2.4.4 Annual Average Price of Phosphate Rock up 37.8% Year on Year
PART THREE: CHINA'S N-FERTILIZER MARKET ANALYSIS AND FORECAST IN 2011-2012
3.1 China's N-Fertilizer Production
3.1.1 2011 N-fertilizer Output 43.8Million MT, down 8.0% Year on Year
3.1.2 2011 Urea Output 26.91 Million MT and up 1.2% Year on Year
3.1.3 Scattered Distribution of China's Urea Production Areas
3.1.4 New Added Urea Capacity was 3.69 Million MT
3.1.5 2011 Urea Costs and Profits
3.1.5.1 Urea Production Costs Using Coal as Raw Material with a bit More than 2010
3.1.5.2 Urea Production Costs Using Natural Gas as a Raw Material Changed little
3.2 China's N-Fertilizer Consumption up 10.2% and Urea Consumption up 16.9% Year on Year
3.2.1 N-Fertilizer Consumption by Provinces and Crop Variety
3.2.2 Urea Consumption by Provinces and Crop Variety
3.2.3 ABC Consumption by Provinces and Crop Variety
3.3 2011 China's N-Fertilizer Trade
3.3.1 Urea Trade
3.3.1.1 Urea Import Volume only 2,000 MT
3.3.1.2 Urea Export Volume 3.559 Million MT, down 49.3% Year on Year
3.3.2 Ammonium Chloride Trade
3.3.2.1 Ammonium Chloride Import Volume Small
3.3.2.2 Ammonium Chloride Export Volume 0.521 Million MT, up 65.0% Year on Year
3.3.3 Ammonium Sulphate Trade
3.3.3.1 Ammonium Sulphate Import Further Reduced
3.3.3.2 Ammonium Sulphate Export 1.843 Million MT, up 51.8% Year on Year
3.4 2011 N-fertilizer Market Prices Changes and 2012 Market Forecast
3.4.1 2011 Urea Prices Fell after Rose, Annual Average Price up 20% Year on Year
3.4.2 2011 ABC Prices Increased Slightly, Annual Average Price up 15.2%Year on Year
3.4.3 2011 Ammonium Chloride Prices Decreased after Increased, Annual Average Price up over 30%Year on Year
3.4.4 2011 Ammonium Sulfate Prices Climbed up Slightly, Annual Average Price up nearly 51.5%Year on Year
3.5 2011 N-fertilizer Supply-Demand Analysis and Market Forecast
3.5.1 2012 N-fertilizer Output to witness a limited Growth, Exports to decline
3.5.2 2012 Urea Demand to increase, Stock/Consumption Ratio up to 39.4%
PART FOUR: CHINA'S P-FERTILIZER MARKET ANALYSIS AND FORECAST IN 2011-2012
4.1 2011 China's P-Fertilizer Production
4.1.1 P-fertilizer Output 15.6 Million MT and Lower than 2010
4.1.2 High Concentration of China's P-Fertilizer Production Distribution
4.1.3 China's Ammonium Phosphate Output 21.368 Million MT, Lower than 2010
4.1.3.1 China's MAP Output 10.749 Million MT
4.1.3.2 China's DAP Output 11.182 Million MT
4.1.3.3 New Added Ammonium Phosphate Capacity about 2.9 Million MT
4.1.4 2011 Ammonium Phosphate Costs and Profits
4.1.4.1 MAP Production Costs up 31.5% Year on Year
4.1.4.2 DAP Production Costs up 33.7% Year on Year
4.2 China's P-Fertilizer Consumption up 0.3% and DAP Consumption up 30.9% Year on Year
4.2.1 P-Fertilizer Consumption by Provinces and Crop Variety
4.2.2 DAP Consumption by Provinces and Crop Variety
4.3 2011 China's P-Fertilizer Trade
4.3.1 MAP Trade
4.3.1.1 MAP Import Volume only 300 MT
4.3.1.2 China, a Net Exporter of MAP
4.3.2 DAP Trade
4.3.2.1 DAP Import Volume 93, 000MT
4.3.2.2 China, a Net Exporter of DAP
4.3.3 TSP Trade
4.3.4 Other SSP Export 0.692 Million MT, up 205% Year on Year
4.4 2011 P-fertilizer Market Prices Changes and 2012 Market Forecast
4.4.1 Steady Growth in MAP Prices in 2011, Annual Average Price up 25.9%Year on Year
4.4.2 Slight Increase in DAP Prices in 2011, Annual Average Price up 12.9%Year on Year
4.5 2012 P-fertilizer Output to Further Reduce, Consumption to Increase
PART FIVE: CHINA'S K-FERTILIZER MARKET ANALYSIS AND FORECAST IN 2011-2012
5.1 2011 China's K-Fertilizer Production
5.1.1 K-Fertilizer Output 4.159 Million MT, up 0.8% Year on Year
5.1.2 Proportion of Qinghai K-Fertilizer Output in Total Production Decreased, Xinjiang Increased
5.1.3 New Added K-Fertilizer Capacity only 3.0 Million MT
5.1.4 SOP Costs up 18.8% Year on Year
5.2 China's K-Fertilizer Consumption up 54.5% and MOP Consumption up 47.8% Year on Year
5.2.1 K-Fertilizer Consumption by Provinces and Crop Variety
5.2.2 MOP Consumption by Provinces and Crop Variety
5.3 2011 China's K-Fertilizer Trade
5.3.1 MOP Trade
5.3.1.1 MOP Import Volume 6.402Million MT, up 22.2% Year on Year
5.3.1.2 MOP Export Volume only 38,000 MT
5.3.2 SOP Trade
5.3.2.1 China as a Net SOP Importer
5.3.2.2 Export Volume Only 398 MT
5.4 2011 K-fertilizer Market Prices Changes and 2012 Market Forecast
5.4.1 Domestic MOP Prices Stable with Some Growth, Import Potash Prices Rose after Fell
5.4.2 SOP Prices Stable with Some Growth
5.5 2012 K-Fertilizer Output and Stock/Consumption Ratio to Increase
PART SIX: CHINA'S COMPOUND FERTILIZER MARKET ANALYSIS AND FORECAST IN 2011-2012
6.1 2011 China's Compound Fertilizer Production
6.1.1 Compound Fertilizer Output Continued to Increase
6.1.2 Scattered Distribution of China's Compound Fertilizer Areas
6.1.3 New Added Compound Fertilizer Capacity about 2.36 Million MT
6.2 China's Compound Fertilizer Consumption up 30.5%, Compound Fertilizer Consumption up 32.0% Year on Year
6.2.1 Compound Fertilizer Consumption by Provinces and Crop Variety
6.2.2 Complex Fertilizer Consumption by Provinces and Crop Variety
6.2.3 Mixed Fertilizer Consumption by Provinces and Crop Variety
6.3 2011 China's NPK Trade
6.3.1 NPK Import Volume far Higher than Export Volume
6.3.2 Export Volume only 24,000 MT
6.4 2011 NPK Prices Kept on Increasing, Annual Average Price up 20%Year on Year
FIGURE CONTENTS
Fig.1, China's Fertilizer Off-season Commercial Reserve Mode
Fig.2, China's Direct Subsidy for Grain and Agricultural Materials, 2004-2011
Fig.3, 2010 China's Energy Structure
Fig.4, China's Anthracite Prices, 2008-2011
Fig.5, Changes in China's Synthetic Ammonia Output, 2000-2011
Fig.6, China's Synthetic Ammonia Output Proportion by Province, 2009-2011
Fig.7, China's Synthetic Ammonia Import Volume, 2006-2011
Fig.8, China's Synthetic Ammonia CIF by Month, 2009-2011
Fig.9, China's Synthetic Ammonia Export Volume, 2006-2011
Fig.10, China's Synthetic Ammonia Factory Prices by Region, 2008-2011
Fig.11, Changes in China's Sulfuric Acid Output, 2000-2011
Fig.12, China's Sulfuric Acid Output Proportion by Province, 2009-2011
Fig.13, China's Sulfur Import Volume, 2006-2011
Fig.14, China's Sulfur CIF by month, 2009-2011
Fig.15, Factory Prices of China's Solid and Liquid Sulfur, 2007-2011
Fig.16, Changes in China's Phosphate Rock Output, 2000-2011
Fig.17, Proportion of Phosphate Rock Output of Each Province, 2009-2011
Fig.18, China's Phosphate Rock Export Volume, 2007-2011
Fig.19, China's Phosphate Rock FOB by Month, 2009-2011
Fig.20, Factory Prices of China's Phosphate Rock (30%P2O5), 2008-2011
Fig.21, Changes in China's N-Fertilizer Output, 2002-2011
Fig.22, Proportion of N-Fertilizer Output of Each Province, 2009-2011
Fig.23, Changes in China's Urea Output, 2002-2011
Fig.24, Proportion of Urea Output of Each Province, 2009-2011
Fig.25, Map for China's Major Urea Enterprises Distribution by Capacity
Fig.26, Map for China's Major Urea Enterprises Distribution by Area
Fig.27, Average Production Cost of Urea Using Coal as a Raw Material, 2008-2011
Fig.28, China's N-fertilizer Consumption, 2004-2011
Fig.29, China's Urea Consumption, 1998-2011
Fig.30, China's ABC Consumption, 1998-2011
Fig.31, 2010 N-Fertilizer Direct Consumption for Agriculture by Province
Fig.32, 2010 N-Fertilizer Direct Consumption for Agriculture by Crop
Fig.33, Direct Consumption of China's Urea for Agriculture by Province, 2010
Fig.34, 2010 Urea Direct Consumption for Agriculture by Crop
Fig.35, Direct Consumption of China's ABC for Agriculture by Province, 2010
Fig.36, Direct Consumption of China's ABC for Agriculture by Crop, 2010
Fig.37, Changes in China's Urea Import Volume, 2000-2011
Fig.38, China's Urea Export Volume, 2000-2011
Fig.39, China's Urea FOB by Month, 2009-2011
Fig.40, Changes in China's Urea Export by Country of Destination, 2006-2011
Fig.41, China's Ammonium Chloride Import Volume, 2000-2011
Fig.42, China's Ammonium Chloride Export Volume, 2000-2011
Fig.43, China's Ammonium Sulphate FOB by Month, 2009-2011
Fig.44, China's Ammonium Sulphate Import Volume, 2000-2011
Fig.45, China's Ammonium Sulphate Export Volume, 2000-2011
Fig.46, China's Ammonium Sulphate FOB by Month, 2009-2011
Fig.47, Wholesale Prices of Urea in Hubei and in the Whole Country, 2008-2011
Fig.48, Factory Prices of ABC in Major Provinces, 2008-2011
Fig.49, Average Factory Prices of Ammonium Chloride in the Whole Country, 2009-2011
Fig.50, Factory Prices of Ammonium Sulphate in the Whole Country, 2008-2011
Fig.51, China's P-Fertilizer Output, 2002-2011
Fig.52, Proportion of China's P-Fertilizer Output of Each Province, 2009-2011
Fig.53, Map of China's Major MAP Capacity Distribution by Province
Fig.54, Map of China's Major MAP Enterprises Distribution
Fig.55, Map of China's Major DAP Capacity Distribution by Province
Fig.56, Map of China's Major DAP Enterprises Distribution
Fig.57, Changes in China's Ammonium Phosphate Output, 2006-2011
Fig.58, Average Production Cost of MAP in China, 2008-2011
Fig.59, Average Production Cost of DAP in China, 2008-2011
Fig.60, China's P-fertilizer Consumption, 2004-2011
Fig.61, China's DAP Consumption, 1998-2011
Fig.62, Direct Consumption of China's P-Fertilizer by Province, 2010
Fig.63, Direct Consumption of China's P-Fertilizer by Crop Variety, 2010
Fig.64, Direct Consumption of China's DAP by Province, 2010
Fig.65, Direct Consumption of China's DAP by Crop Variety, 2010
Fig.66, China's MAP Import Volume, 2006-2011
Fig.67, China's MAP Export Volume, 2006-2011
Fig.68, China's MAP FOB by Month, 2009-2011
Fig.69, China's MAP Export Volume by Original Country, 2007-2011
Fig.70, China's DAP Import Volume, 2000-2011
Fig.71, China's DAP Export Volume, 2000-2011
Fig.72, China's DAP FOB by Month, 2009-2011
Fig.73, Changes in China's DAP Export by Country of Destination, 2007-2011
Fig.74, China's TSP Export Volume, 2006-2011
Fig.75, China's TSP FOB by Month, 2009-2011
Fig.76, China's TSP Import Volume, 2006-2011
Fig.77, China's other SSP Export Volume, 2006-2011
Fig.78, China's Other SSP FOB by Month, 2009-2011
Fig.79, Average Factory Prices of MAP (55%P2O5), 2009-2011
Fig.80, Average Factory Prices of DAP (55%P2O5), 2009-2011
Fig.81, China's K-Fertilizer Output, 2002-2010
Fig.82, China's K-Fertilizer Output Proportion by Province in the Last 3 Years
Fig.83, Map of China's Major MOP Enterprises Distribution by Capacity
Fig.84, Map of China's Major MOP Enterprises Distribution by Region
Fig.85, Map of China's Major SOP Enterprises Distribution by Capacity
Fig.86, Map of China's Major SOP Enterprises Distribution by Region
Fig.87, Average SOP Production Costs in China, 2009-2011
Fig.88, China's K-Fertilizer Consumption, 2004-2011
Fig.89, China's MOP Consumption, 1998-2011
Fig.90, Direct Consumption of China's K-Fertilizer by Province, 2010
Fig.91, Direct Consumption of China's K-Fertilizer by Crop Variety, 2010
Fig.92, Direct Consumption of China's MOP by Province, 2010
Fig.93, Direct Consumption of China's MOP by Crop Variety, 2010
Fig.94, China's MOP Import Volume, 2000-2011
Fig.95, China's MOP CIF by Month, 2009-2011
Fig.96, Changes in China's MOP Import Volume by Original Country, 2007-2011
Fig.97, China's MOP Export Volume, 2001-2011
Fig.98, China's SOP Import Volume, 2000-2011
Fig.99, China's SOP CIF by Month, 2009-2011
Fig.100, Changes in China's SOP Import Volume by Original Country, 2007-2011
Fig.101, China's SOP Export Volume, 2000-2011
Fig.102, Average Factory Prices of Domestic 60% Crystal MOP, 2008-2011
Fig.103, CIF of Russia 60% White Potassium and Red Potassium by Port, 2008-2011
Fig.104, Average Factory Prices of SOP (50% Power and 50% Pellet), 2008-2011
Fig.105, China's Compound Fertilizer Output, 2006-2011
Fig.106, Map of China's Major Compound Capacity Distribution by Province
Fig.107, Map of China's Major Compound Enterprises Distribution
Fig.108, China's Compound Fertilizer Consumption, 2004-2011
Fig.109, China's Complex Fertilizer Consumption, 1998-2011
Fig.110, China's Mixed Fertilizer Consumption, 2004-2011
Fig.111, Direct Consumption of China's Compound Fertilizer by Province, 2010
Fig.112, Direct Consumption of China's Compound Fertilizer by Crop Variety, 2010
Fig.113, Direct Consumption of China's Complex Fertilizer by Province, 2010
Fig.114, Direct Consumption of China's Complex Fertilizer by Crop Variety, 2010
Fig.115, Direct Consumption of China's Mixed Fertilizer Province, 2010
Fig.116, Direct Consumption of China's Mixed Fertilizer by Crop Variety, 2010
Fig.117, China's NPK Import Volume, 2000-2011
Fig.118, China's NPK CIF by Month, 2009-2011
Fig.119, China's NPK Import Volume by Original Country, 2007-2011
Fig.120, China's NPK Export Volume, 2000-2011
Fig.121, Average Factory Prices of 45% Cl-based (15-15-15) and 45% S-based (15-15-15) Compound Fertilizer, 2008-2011
ATTACHED TABLES
Table 1, China's Total Energy Production and Structure, 1978-2010
Table 2, China's Synthetic Ammonia Output by Month, 2007-2011
Table 3, China's Synthetic Ammonia Output by Province, 2007-2011
Table 4, China's Synthetic Ammonia Import Volume by Month, 2007-2011
Table 5, China's Synthetic Ammonia Export Volume by Month, 2007-2011
Table 6, China's Sulfuric Acid Output by Month, 2007-2011
Table 7, China's Sulfur Import Volume by Month, 2007-2011
Table 8, China's Phosphate Rock Output by Month, 2007-2011
Table 9, China's Phosphate Rock Export Volume by Month, 2007-2011
Table 10, China's N-fertilizer Output by Province, 2007-2011
Table 11, China's Urea Output by Province, 2007-2011
Table 12, Urea Production Enterprises Distribution by Scale in 2011
Table 13, Capacity More than 1 Million MT of China's Urea Enterprises and Groups in 2011
Table 14, Enterprises Situation of Five Bigger Urea Groups
Table 15, New Added Urea Enterprises and Capacity in 2011
Table 16, China's Urea Import Volume by Month, 2007-2011
Table 17, China's Urea Import Volume by Original Country, 2007-2011
Table 18, China's Urea Export Volume by Month, 2007-2011
Table 19, China's Urea Export Volume by Country of Destination, 2007-2011
Table 20, China's Ammonium Chloride Import Volume by Month, 2007-2011
Table 21, China's Ammonium Chloride Export Volume by Month, 2007-2011
Table 22, China's Ammonium Sulfate Import Volume by Month, 2007-2011
Table 23, China's Ammonium Sulfate Export Volume by Month, 2007-2011
Table 24, China's N-Fertilizer Supply and Demand Balance, 2001-2012
Table 25, China's Urea Supply and Demand Balance, 2001-2012
Table 26, China's P-fertilizer Output by Province, 2007-2011
Table 27, China's Ammonium Phosphate Output by Month, 2005-2011
Table 28, New Added Ammonium Phosphate Enterprises and Capacity in 2011
Table 29, China's MAP Import Volume by Month, 2000-2011
Table 30, China's MAP Export Volume by Month, 2000-2011
Table 31, China's MAP Export Volume by Country of Destination, 2007-2011
Table 32, China's DAP Import Volume by Month, 2000-2011
Table 33, China's DAP Export Volume by Month, 2000-2011
Table 34, China's DAP Export Volume by Country of Destination, 2007-2011
Table 35, China's TSP Export Volume by Month, 2006-2011
Table 36, China's TSP Import Volume by Month, 2006-2011
Table 37, China's other SSP Export Volume by Month, 2006-2011
Table 38, China's P-Fertilizer Supply and Demand Balance, 2001-2012
Table 39, China's K-Fertilizer Output by Province, 2007-2011
Table 40, Capacity of China's K-Fertilizer Enterprises (Group)
Table 41, New Added K-Fertilizer Enterprises and Capacity in 2011
Table 42, China's MOP Import Volume by Month, 2007-2011
Table 43, China's MOP Import Volume by Original Country, 2007-2011
Table 44, China's MOP Export Volume by Month, 2007-2011
Table 45, China's SOP Import Volume by Month, 2007-2011
Table 46, China's SOP Import Volume by Original Country, 2007-2011
Table 47, China's SOP Export Volume by Month, 2007-2011
Table 48, China's Potash Fertilizer Supply and Demand Balance, 2001-2012
Table 49, China's Compound Fertilizer Output by Month, 2007-2011
Table 50, China Compound Fertilizer Enterprises (Groups) with Capacity of More 0.1 million MT, 2011
Table 51, New Added Compound Fertilizer Enterprises and Capacity in 2011
Table 52, China Compound Fertilizer Import Volume by Month, 2007-2011
Table 53, China Compound Fertilizer Import Volume by Original Country, 2007-2011
Table 54, China Compound Fertilizer Export Volume by Month, 2007-2011
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